In the NFL, finding a truly exceptional player can improve a team’s fortunes tremendously. If that player happens to be a good-looking, nice, hard-working kid who makes a difference immediately, then you could say that that team has hit the lottery. The Carolina Panthers went 2-14 in 2010, and as humbling an experience as that must have been, it was the best thing to happen to the team since it went to the Super Bowl in 2004. That 2-14 record brought the Carolina Panthers Cam Newton.

As a rookie, Cam Newton was a revelation. His mix of athleticism, work-ethic, intelligence, and courage made the Panthers a dangerous matchup for any team. As well, his media-friendly appearance and attitude made him very popular with fans and with the image-conscious NFL. In 2011, the Panthers improved to 6-10, and the future looked bright. They had managed to accomplish what so many other teams dream of doing: they had drafted their franchise quarterback.

It’s no secret, then, that Carolina has gotten off to a disappointing start this season. At 1-5, they’re a long way away from the second-place finish that I had projected for them in the NFC South. Looking at the team now, it’s not difficult to see that expectations for this season were much too high. Newton’s emergence last season overshadowed a lot of deficiencies which haven’t been fixed for this season. The team is a mess, and the fault lies solely with the people running the team. The Panthers are thin on defence, due largely to signing injury-prone LBs Thomas Davis and Jon Beason for big money, instead of spending money more wisely on improving the team’s defensive depth. Meanwhile on the offensive side, the Panthers have little depth at WR (other than Steve Smith) to help Newton, while the team signed RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart for big bucks, but barely use them (Williams has only 4 more carries than Newton this season, while Stewart has 11 less!). People expect Newton to win, but he can’t do it alone, and he’s not handling it well. He’s too conscientious to accept the way things are, and he’s getting down. He keeps going out in front of the cameras every week and trying to express his disappointment honestly, and he’s getting a reputation for being a whiner, a sulker.

The Carolina ownership is finally starting to realize just how badly they have let this young man down, how badly they have screwed up this golden situation, and they have made at least one step in the right direction by firing General Manager Marty Hurney. Hopefully, Head Coach Ron Rivera will be gone soon too. The Panthers’ running game was expected to be a huge advantage this season, including opening up more opportunities for Newton in the passing game, so the underutilization of Williams and Stewart is a little baffling. Rivera is a defensive guy, so he seems ill-equipped to solve the team’s offensive woes. Add to that the mess on defence, and the fact that he’s a lousy in-game coach, and he has got to go. The team needs to be decisive; wasting any more time allowing their 23-year-old franchise QB to spin his wheels would be a catastrophe.

Of course, the one great thing about a situation like this is that it gives folks opportunities to entertain me by saying really stupid things. Take Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk. This week, when discussing Newton, he actually asked the inane question, “Should the Panthers keep him?” The thought of letting go a QB with as much talent and potential as Newton, at the age of 23 no less, when so many teams in the league are deficient at the position, is too ludicrous to entertain. You build a team around a guy like Newton, if you’re lucky enough to find one that good. Not one of your finest moments, Florio. Also, did the Cam Newton situation cause a Hall of Fame QB to call a current Pro Bowler a racist? Well, Warren Moon, who has a close relationship with Newton, was upset when he heard Newton being talked about as a possible bust, and being compared to Vince Young. Moon believes that part of the reason for the harsh criticism of Newton is racial, and was quoted as saying, “…it's always a comparison of one black to another black. I get tired of it.” And hey, if you know anything about Moon, then you know that he knows more than most about the harm stereotyping black QBs can do. Meanwhile, after playing Washington last week, the Giants heaped praise upon the play of Robert Griffin III. Among the Giants players who complimented Griffin was Justin Tuck, who said, “If I was going to run that offense and they asked me to pick between Vick, Cam Newton, the RGIII, I’m probably taking that guy.” Justin Tuck, Warren Moon thinks you’re a racist. Your move.

Now, onto the picks, where it looks like a good week for a lot of road teams.

Colts at Titans

The Colts and Andrew Luck continue to struggle on the road. Chris Johnson ran wild against the terrible Bills defence last week, putting the rest of the league on notice that he’s still dangerous when he finds a little daylight. I have a feeling he’ll find plenty of holes to run through in the Colts’ defence. Winner: Titans

Chargers at Browns

I toyed with the idea of taking the Browns at home, but I believe that the Chargers’ defence is solid enough, especially with an extra week’s rest, to hold the Browns’ offence at bay. Philip Rivers has struggled this season, but he should be able to get the job done this week, provided he remains patient and doesn’t try to do too much. Winner: Chargers

Dolphins at Jets

This is a bad time for the awful Jets’ offence to be coming up against Miami’s stingy defence. The Dolphins are really tough to run against, which will mean that Mark Sanchez, under pressure from Miami’s great pass rush, will have to beat them. The best chance the Jets have in this game is if the mere sight of Time Tebow scares the Dolphins into a state of paralysis. I doubt any of the Dolphins who were around for their game against Denver last season think Tebow’s overrated. Winner: Dolphins

Jaguars at Packers

Aaron Rodgers is on a roll. The Jags don’t even have their best player on offence. I see Graham Harrell getting some playing time in the fourth quarter. Winner: Packers

Patriots at Rams (but not really “at”)

This one’s in London, England. The time change won’t really be a factor; it’s just a few hours really, making it like a late afternoon game for both teams. The Pats have a long way to go before their defensive secondary will be up to the level of a serious contender, but the rest of the defence is sound, and the offence is as potent as ever. They’re more than a match for the Rams, no matter what continent they’re playing on. Winner: Patriots

Washington at Steelers

RGIII continues to impress. Not only is he a threat to break a huge run on any play, but he extends plays with his legs and he’s a deadly accurate passer as well. He got rave reviews from the Giants’ defenders who had the unenviable task of chasing him around last week. This Steelers defence isn’t nearly as good as the Giants’. If this game is still close in the 4th, “Sir Robert” will administer the coup de grâce on the tired, wounded Steelers. Winner: Washington

Seahawks at Lions

With the Lions’ playoff hopes dwindling, they will be desperate for a victory at home this week. Too bad they’re playing host to Seattle and their punishing DBs. Detroit’s offence has struggled all season to put points on the board. Meanwhile, rookie Seahawks’ QB Russell Wilson seems to be gaining confidence with each passing week (pun intended), and is complemented by the bane of the Detroit defence, a punishing running game. Winner: Seahawks

Panthers at Bears

Struggling on offence and banged up on defence, the Panthers travel to the windy apple to take on one of the best teams in the league, with predictable results. In fact I am predicting them. Winner: Bears

Falcons at Eagles

Every year I hear the same thing: Andy Reid’s teams always win after their bye week. I’ll admit that Reid’s record bears this out, and that’s because in spite of the fact that he is one of the worst in-game coaches EVER (kind of the anti-Coughlin), he is great at preparation and strategy. What I can’t imagine is how any amount of planning will make Michael Vick more accurate or less turnover-prone. Whatever defensive liabilities the Falcons may have, their offence will be more than Philly can handle. Winner: Falcons

Raiders at Chiefs

The Raiders, for all their struggles, should still be able to handle the woeful Chiefs, provided that Brady Quinn is still as bad as I remember. Winner: Raiders

Giants at Cowboys

Any thoughts I had about picking Dallas in this one went right out the window once they lost tackling machine and defensive leader Sean Lee. Defensive depth was the Cowboys’ best chance in this one. Tony Romo is more than capable of exploiting the Giants’ liabilities in the secondary, provided his receivers get the job done (hardly a confidence-builder for Cowboys’ fans), but that will just mean losing a shootout instead of a blowout. Winner: Giants

Saints at Broncos

Two great QBs, running two potent offences. The difference here is that the Broncos have a defence that can limit the damage done by Brees and Co., whereas Peyton Manning will be met with much less resistance by the Saints’ D. Winner: Broncos

Monday Night

49ers at Cardinals

So, John Skelton survived Jared Allen and the rest of the Vikes’ pass rushers last week. This isn’t much of a reward, is it? Winner: 49ers

9:25 PM ADT: I'm running late tonight, but I wanted to get it on record that I'm picking the Bucs tonight. More to follow as soon as I'm finished editing.
-- GFH

11:00 PM ADT: Update-- Finally finished editing

Polls have very little place in any serious discussion of sports, but a couple of polls caught my eye this week. One, done by Sports Illustrated, polled 180 players, asking them to name the most overrated player in the league. Tim Tebow was the overwhelming choice, garnering 34% of the votes, easily outdistancing second place finishers Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo (8% each). Now, polls like this are meant to be fun and promote discussion, and are silly, unscientific, and meaningless, but I thought it was interesting that Tebow would be at the top, and especially by such a wide margin. The first thing that I thought was that, in order for a player to be overrated, wouldn’t he, by definition, have to be undeserving of his high rating? This of course begs the question, “Who’s rating Tim Tebow so high to begin with?” Since declaring himself eligible for the NFL Draft, there have always been serious questions about Tebow’s suitability to be an NFL QB. We’ve been told endlessly that his throwing motion is a disaster. His play has been repeatedly maligned, the statistics he posts ridiculed. And all he did last season was take over as the starter for a 1-4 Broncos team, compile a 7-4 record as a starter, finish the regular season with twice as many TD passes as interceptions (12-6) along with an additional 6 TDs and 3 Two-Point Conversions on the ground, and get the Broncos into the playoffs, where they beat the favoured Steelers in the opening round. Now, after that apparently meagre accomplishment, he finds himself traded to the Jets, where he plays behind the putrid Mark Sanchez on a team that has no idea how to use him.

Of course, if you listen to some people, like this clown at ESPN, then you’ll be told that the “Players nailed it.” What players exactly? The sample of the survey was 180 players. Each team, on any given week, has a game day roster of 45 and an active roster of 53 players. That’s a lot of friggin’ players, the majority of whom are not worthy of asking. According to the esteemed Mr. James Walker, “It’s hard to argue with NFL players on this one.” Now, are we talking about the same NFL players who voted Tebow to the #95 spot on the most recent “NFL Top 100” players list? Yes Mr. Walker, it is hard to argue with anyone who swears to believe opposite sides of the same argument (must be like debating Mitt Romney). If Tim Tebow is overrated, then it’s only because it’s his peers who rated him so high to begin with. Bravo for not noticing, Mr. Walker. Bravo.

I think it would be terribly ironic if Antonio Cromartie was one of the players who said the Tebow was overrated:

Or, for that matter, anyone who played for Pittsburgh last season:

(Another angle here)

Before I get onto my pick for tonight, I want to briefly mention the other poll. This one, by Forbes, purports to measure “The NFL’s Most (and Least) Liked Players.” This being a publication devoted to financial matters, the purpose of the poll is to gauge a particular player’s name recognition and whether the public has a positive or negative opinion of him based upon what the public knows of him. Again, such endeavours are a fun read for fans. It’s easy to see how a player like Troy “Head and Shoulders” Polumalu, or Donald “Mirror Ball” Driver would do well, and it’s funny when a team like the Dallas Cowboys seemingly inspires such strong feelings among the public that its backup QB Kyle Orton, whose only crime as far as I can remember is cultivating one hellacious neckbeard, can make the top ten Least Liked list.

The thing that struck me the most about this poll is the top of the Least Liked list. At number one is Ndamukong Suh, a player upon whom I have heaped much scorn (I recall referring to him as “Stompy the Clown” last season), who has earned a reputation as a dirty player, and who has had some recent run-ins with the law. Second on the list was Jay Cutler, who has committed the unforgivable crimes of sulking, looking bored, and not being super-excited to answer reporters’ dumb questions. Fine. Third on the list is Michael Vick. Let me repeat that: Michael Vick, third. The photo gallery accompanying the Forbes article refers to Vick’s “legal woes from a few years ago.” Well, that’s putting it mildly. See, I remember Vick’s alter ego Ron Mexico. Worse, I remember the other name he went by, Ookie, the one who owned and operated a dog fighting operation for years, who participated in training and breeding dogs for fighting, who sponsored and transported dogs for fights, who tested the fighting abilities of candidate dogs and participated in the killing of dogs deemed not suitable for fighting. Some things should not ever be forgotten.

Thursday Night

Buccaneers at Vikings

The Vikes have been a surprise this season in compiling a 5-2 record, and I was sorely tempted to pick them at home against the 2-4 Bucs. It’s a good matchup. Both teams’ defences are strong, so it will be a question of how well their offences respond. Vikings’ QB Christian Ponder has struggled of late, and Adrian Peterson has had to carry the offence. The Bucs are extremely good against the run, and will most likely take the approach that if the Vikes are going to beat them, it will have to be through the air. I don’t think Ponder and the Vikings’ passing game is quite up to the task. The superior Tampa passing attack will be the difference in a close game. Winner: Buccaneers

Last season, I wrote liberally about the annoyingly overrated Detroit Lions. (I could have done a whole column just about Ndamukong Suh’s idiocy.) This Lions’ team, starting with its head coach, is the biggest collection of morons that the league has seen in years. This brings me to WR Nate Burleson.  Last week, Burleson caught a 17-yard TD pass, then he celebrated in the end zone:

 (You can see another angle of it here.)

On the video, after Burleson scores, you see him get up, flap his arms, make a winged, flying-away motion with his hands, then pantomime shooting down the “bird” that had flown upward. Burleson was fined $10,000 by the NFL for this celebration, the NFL citing his “violent action toward another team.” Burleson thinks the NFL went too far in fining him. I can see his point, but I can also see the point of the image-conscious NFL wanting to discourage gun-related imagery.

What I can’t get past is how stupid the whole thing makes Burleson look. For starters, let’s look at the “celebration” itself. So, Burleson flaps his arms and his hands like a bird. The Lions are playing the Eagles, so I guess that’s the bird part. I get it, I really do; the other team is the Eagles, so they are eagles. So then he proceeds to shoot the “Eagle,” which would make sense if he played for the Detroit Poachers or the Motor City Madmen. He doesn’t, though. He’s a Lion. If he’s going to taunt the other team using team logos as his guiding imagery, the clever thing to do would be to come up with something that is consistent. Plus, miming shooting a gun, in Detroit no less, on a team full of guys who can’t seem to stay out of trouble, is just extremely poor judgement.  There’s an old saying I like, something along the lines of, “If you get yourself into a hole, stop digging.” Burleson would have been much better off if he just let things be, but he just couldn’t stop talking. He claimed that he was miming a super soaker, not a gun. He invoked the 5-year-old child’s defence, saying essentially that he has seen many other players do similar things, miming guns and bow-and-arrows. He even lamented the league’s stifling of players expressing themselves spontaneously or out of pure enthusiasm. I watches a game a couple of years ago, where the Patriots beat the Titans 59-0 in a steady snowfall. Wes Welker caught a TD pass late in the game, when the Pats were way ahead, and he fell to the ground in the end zone and made a snow angel. That was spontaneous enthusiasm, but he was still flagged for excessive celebration, as per the rules. What Burleson did was a thought-out plan. That it was so stupid is embarrassing. He should have shut his trap, paid his fine, and let it die. But no, he’s bought into the idea that the Lions have to have “swagger,” have to be bad boys in order to win, when what they really need is the discipline to play the game the right way, work hard, and think of the team before the individual. What Burleson should have done, as a veteran, was act the way Vince Lombardi said a player should act when they make it to the end zone; like they’ve been there before.

Here’s the picks. I’m feeling particularly ornery this week:

Cardinals at Vikings

It should be interesting to see what offensive schemes the Cards have cooked up, what with how to figure out who’s doing what while Jared Allen is being quadruple-teamed. Think I’m exaggerating? I read that erstwhile Arizona starting QB Kevin Kolb had a number of his ribs separated from his sternum last week! Now that is some piss-poor protection. I just hope that John “Nuke” Skelton doesn’t get killed in the noisy Metrodome. No, really. Winner: Vikings

Washington at Giants

I can think of plenty of reasons to pick Washington in this one. RGIII is a handful, and if he tires out New York’s front four from chasing him around, then that will expose the lack of depth the Giants have at LB and DB. Also, the Giants are coming off a huge, “statement” game against the 49ers, and are due for a letdown. The thing is, if I know this, then you can bet that crafty old codger Coughlin knows it too. Winner: Giants

Cowboys at Panthers

Yes, I gleefully rip the Cowboys, because Jerry Jones gets on my nerves. If he’s such a fucking expert on coaching and personnel, he should just take over completely. Jason Garrett was a decent coach once, but too much time trying to work with Jerry’s hand up his ass has turned him into a wimp who can’t make basic decisions or manage the clock effectively. Too bad, since Romo’s practically killing himself out there trying to win with Dez “I’m too talented to work hard or even be in goddamn shape” Bryant being shoved down his throat. Rant over. Fortunately, the ‘boys are playing against sulky Cam Newton this week. Somewhere along the way, the Camster started to believe the hype about him, that he could win by himself. When did he start thinking that he needed to? Maybe it was when he looked at his receivers. And his head coach. And the defence. It was worth a try. Winner: Cowboys

Titans at Bills

Tough, tough game to pick. The Bills defence showed some life last week, but it was against the Cardinals (see above), while the Titans ground out a win against a Steelers team that should probably just change its logo to a red cross. I think that the Bills’ offence is just a bit more capable here, so with that and home-field… Winner: Bills

Saints at Buccaneers

Another tough one. On coaching, I’d go with the Bucs against the leaderless Sinners. New Orleans will probably get some kind of emotional boost from having Jonathan “It wasn’t me” Vilma back this week, they’ll come out smoking, and maybe even be able to hold on for the win for a change. On a side note, what are the chances that maverick Bucs’ coach Greg Schiano offers an incentive to whomever knocks Vilma out with a crackback block? Perhaps he could offer them some of Warren Sapp’s art. Winner: Saints

Packers at Rams

So, basically what happened last week is that Aaron Rodgers went to Houston, stepped on the field, and gave a big “fuck you” to everyone who has been talking and writing about the Packers’ demise this season. Well-done, sir. Now put your cleat on the Rams’ collective throat and keep it there until they roll over and show their belly. Winner: Packers

Ravens at Texans

It’s going to be weird watching the Ravens defence play without Ray Lewis in the middle. It’ll be weird for the Ravens, too. With all of their injuries on defence, Baltimore will have to rely on Joe Flacco to win games for them. That’s not good. The sensational Double-J Watt will be in Flacco’s nightmares for a while after this game. I expect a fiery game from the Texans this week, after they got owned by Aaron Rodgers and Co. last week. The Texans know that all eyes are on them, wondering if they’re a legitimate contender, so they’d better be able to handle their business this week. The stink of a loss to the wounded Ravens won’t wash away easily. Winner: Texans

Browns at Colts

The Browns stunned the Bengals last week, while the Colts predictably lost on the road to the desperate Jets. I like the Colts’ offence a lot more at home, where their very good rookie QB Andrew Luck can have a better chance of finding his rhythm in front of a friendly crowd. Winner: Colts

Jets at Patriots

I read today that Rex Ryan said that he had Tim Tebow playing Tom Brady on the scout team offence this week in practice. So, I expect that the Jets’ defence will do everything backwards on Sunday, because Tebow is a southpaw. In other words, the Jets’ CBs will look like Pats’ CB Devin McCourty does every week. I’m going to miss watching New England’s WRs get mauled on Gilligan’s Island (or whatever they used to call it) without “Little Buddy” Revis getting flagged. Tom Brady won’t miss it, though, or much else I suspect. Winner: Patriots

Jaguars at Raiders

It’s always dangerous playing the Jags. There’s always the danger that your team will become overconfident and make a bunch of mistakes. It’s worse to BE the Jags, though. Winner: Raiders

Steelers at Bengals

It’s no secret that I’ve been nursing a serious crush on the Bengals this season. However, they have still not figured out how to fix their problems on defence, and now Andy Dalton is starting to press and make mistakes he wasn’t making earlier in the season. This is a huge opportunity for the Bengals to make a statement against one of the most banged-up Steelers teams I can remember. If the Bengals can’t capitalize on this opportunity, then I’m breaking up with them. Winner: Bengals

Monday Night

Lions at Bears

The Bears are among the elite teams in the league. They have a balanced offence, a QB who can take over a game, and a top-flight defence. The Lions have serious problems on defence; they are thin at DB and LB, and their pass rush is overrated. Add to that their struggling offence, and you’ve got a very bad matchup against Chicago. I’ll be watching to see if Megatron scores a TD, doubling his total for the season <AHEMMADDENCURSEAHEM>, and to see if Nate Burleson gets a chance to pantomime a bear getting shot. Winner: Bears

When you’re writing the best picks column in the world, it helps when you know what to expect from certain teams. My amazing record last year was a result not only of my skill and knowledge, but also of being able to depend upon teams like the Packers and Patriots to be consistently brilliant (and conversely, teams like the Colts and Browns to be consistently awful). I went 15-1 last season just by picking the Pack every week. It gets trickier when two good, mediocre, or bad teams square off, so you look a bit more closely at the matchup and make your best (or in my case, the best) choice. In most cases, when evaluating how a team will perform, recent performances will point you in the right direction when attempting to predict how they will play in the next game.

However, some teams are frustrating. They don’t play to expectations; they lose games you expect them to win, then play like all-time greats the following week. No team epitomizes this for me more than the New York Giants. I haven’t counted, but I would be surprised if there is any team that has defied my attempts to correctly pick their games more than the Giants. Last season, they were so maddeningly inconsistent that it drove me crazy. They had to win three of their last four games, including the winner-take-all finale against the Cowboys, just to make the playoffs at 9-7, after which they ran the table to win the Super Bowl, coolly dispatching the Packers (15-1), 49ers (13-3) and Pats (13-3) along the way.

Now, I do not claim to be a journalist, nor would I ever say that I am above bias when it comes to writing about football. I like what (and who) I like (and vice versa), and everything is fair game. My frustration with the Giants may have caused me to lash out at them in the past. I may have called Brandon Jacobs an idiot, or words to that effect (That one’s easier to take now, isn’t it Giants’ fans?). It’s possible that I may have written about Eli Manning’s goofy face or propensity to throw interceptions in bunches. I may have even characterized Rooney Mara's performance in the remake of "The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo" as weak and uninspired (OK, that last one is not true; I loved her portrayal, even though making the movie was completely unnecessary). Hey, that’s just me letting off some steam (not to mention telling the truth—but I digress). Whatever criticisms I have leveled against the Giants in the past, I have been consistent in my praise for the man who has been called, “…the best game-day coach in the NFL,” by no less an expert than myself.

Tom Coughlin has always insisted on doing things his way. I’ve always liked his reputation as a no-nonsense coach who is committed to discipline, because football played at the highest level is the ultimate team sport. I can’t count how many times I heard or read that Coughlin was on the proverbial “coaching hot seat,” where it seemed that his firing was only a matter of time, only to have the team respond with inspired play. I remember Coughlin taking heat for benching Kurt Warner (before he rose like a Phoenix in Arizona) in favour of young Elisha Manning. I recall how Coughlin’s leadership was questioned by Tiki Barber (Anyone remember that dick bag?), both when Barber was a player and as a (terrible) broadcaster. I was impressed when Coughlin’s Giants gave the Patriots all they could handle in the final game of the 2007 season—even though New York could not improve its playoff position—when the Pats were trying to complete their perfect regular season. When I really noticed him was during the NFC Championship game against the Packers in 2008, in the Arctic conditions of Green Bay, as he stood on the sidelines. His face was so freaking red; I thought for sure he would look like that forever. I remember thinking, “For the love of Christ, man, cover up!” Of course, I realized how important the team was to him then, that he would not have his men out on the field giving their all in such adverse conditions while he was warm on the sidelines, sheer brilliance from an emotional and psychological standpoint. Of course, Coughlin’s men, emboldened by his faith in them in week 17, would go on to defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, as Coughlin outmaneuvered, out-strategized, flat-out outcoached Bill Belichick.

Now Coughlin is a two-time champ. No one can ever question the fact that he is a winner. Yet time and again, he is overlooked and underestimated. It’s always the other team that’s the favourite, the other coach who has all the answers. He loves it. He uses it. He reminds me of one of my favourite TV characters of all time. This was another guy who was always underestimated. His adversaries were always richer, from a higher social class, better dressed, successful, connected, and they always thought they were too smart to ever be threatened by the short, rumpled, confused, disorganized detective who sought to expose their crime. Their perceived superiority was always their downfall, but the real genius of the situation was how the detective led them to think they couldn’t lose, when all the while he was using his keen intellect and attention to detail to make them reveal themselves to him gradually, until they were caught.

Last week, Coughlin did it again. He got his team ready to face the 49ers, to some, the best overall team in the NFL, a team that had outscored its opponents 79-3 in its previous two games, while the Giants had struggled before rallying to beat the Browns in their most recent contest. Playing in San Francisco, all signs pointed to a home win. We should have known; Columbo always got the killer in the end.

Thursday Night

Seahawks at 49ers

This should be a very interesting game. Although the Seahawks were aided by some questionable calls in their victory over the Pats last Sunday, they won because they are tough on defence, particularly in their deep, physical secondary. Their offence is another matter; average at best at home, a disappearing act on the road. The 49ers just got humiliated at home, and will be pumped for this divisional matchup. They need to be patient and methodical on offence, and their defence will take care of them by providing them with short fields and maybe some turnovers. Winner: 49ers

I had planned on doing a recap column and a picks column this week, including a piece where I address accusations that I have been unfair to the New York Giants. However, things got complicated this week, so I’ll just be putting up a picks column, since I know I’ll be super-busy for the next few days. It’s just as well that I save the Giants thing anyway, as I’m sure their fans will be upset with me again this week.

Before I get to the picks, as promised last week, I will be taking aim at some of the bad and stupid writing (when the opportunity presents itself) offered up by some of the “expert” football writers who get paid to do this for a living. (As the writer of The Best Picks Column in the World, this is not just my right, but also my responsibility.) My target this week is Peter King of Sports Illustrated (and NBC?!?), author of Monday Morning Quarterback. Good old Peter is one of those annoying columnists who slavishly depends on Passer Rating to provide some sort of evidence to back up how well or poorly he says a QB performs, which would get him into trouble often if anyone bothered to notice. For example, in this week’s “MMQB,” King spends a great deal of time praising the effort of Colts’ rookie QB Andrew Luck, breathlessly describing his stellar play in Indianapolis’s thrilling comeback victory over the Packers on Sunday (note: I saw this game, and Luck was awesome). Later in the column, King honours Luck as one of his “Offensive Players of the Week,” describing Luck’s performance (31 of 55 for 362 yards, 2TDs, 1 INT) as, “… a game you had to see to believe… (Luck’s) poise in the pocket, his ability to make plays under pressure, was that of a Brees or a Brady.” High praise indeed. In another part of the column, while discussing Chiefs’ QB Matt Cassel, King states that, “No NFL quarterback is slumping quite as badly as Cassel, who has been rated lower than 84 (which is mediocrity) in all five games of the 1-4 Chiefs start.” Now, I’m sure that you can see what’s coming next as plain as Andrew Luck’s impressive neck beard, but I’ll say it anyway; young Master Luck’s Passer Rating for his display of Brees-esque Brady-osity was a mere 81. Mediocrity Rules! That’s what you get when you’re too busy to read your own column, I guess.

Thursday Night

Steelers at Titans

The Steelers are really hurting on defence, with a number of key injuries, which could be beneficial to the Titans’ offence (including highly-paid part-time RB Chris Johnson). Fortunately for the Steelers, the Titans’ defence can’t seem to stop anyone. Not long ago, the prospect of a shootout in a Steelers-Titans game would have seemed ludicrous, but it’s a possibility here. Winner: Steelers

Sunday

Raiders at Falcons

There aren’t many teams I’d pick to beat this Falcons team at home, and the Raiders aren’t one of them. Winner: Falcons

Rams at Dolphins

The Rams are playing a better on defence. The Dolphins are playing better on defence. This game could be lower-scoring than the next Yankees-Orioles game (unless A-Rod is playing). On a side note, whenever I pick the Dolphins, they lose, and whenever I pick against them they win. I hope I’m wrong this time. Which means I’m right. Or whatever. Winner: Dolphins

Cowboys at Ravens

I hate it when the Cowboys have bad teams, because it takes something away from watching them lose. With any luck, their fans haven’t lost hope yet. Winner: Ravens

Chiefs at Buccaneers

A couple of real powerhouses here. I’ll take the Bucs defence at home. Winner: Buccaneers

Colts at Jets

The Colts are riding high after their big win last week, so no one should be surprised if they suffer a letdown this week. The Jets are struggling, and will have a lot of fight in them. A nice home win might be the perfect time for a celebratory hotdog, Fireman Ed. Winner: Jets

Bengals at Browns

Tough loss for the Bengals last week. Turnovers, and a stubborn Miami defence will do that. The Bengals should find greener pastures in Cleveland, provided they take better care of the ball. Winner: Bengals

Lions at Eagles

The Eagles’ offence has been uncharacteristically punchless, much of which is due to Michael Vick’s inability to avoid turnovers. They need to feed Shady McCoy early and often to exploit the Lions’ weak run defence. As for the Lions, they’re doing even worse  than I thought they would.  Winner: Eagles

Bills at Cardinals

This might be the last chance the Bills have to turn things around. If they can’t stop the Cards’ anemic offence, then they might as well give up. Winner: Bills

Patriots at Seahawks

The suddenly potent and deep Pats running attack must terrify the rest of the league. If they can be disciplined enough to avoid making mistakes due to the crowd noise, then they should roll over the Seahawks. Winner: Patriots

Giants at 49ers

No one gives the Giants much of a chance in this one, which must scare the shit out of Jim Harbaugh. I know crafty Tom Coughlin must love it. The 49ers are really good, and the Giants are hurting, so it shouldn’t matter, right? Right? <sigh> Winner: 49ers

Vikings at Washington

RGIII, as brilliant as he has been thus far, is already starting to get dinged up. Enter Jared Allen. The Vikes are hot, and Washington won’t cool them off. Winner: Vikings

Packers at Texans

The Packers are in tough; their defence isn’t getting it done, and their offence has been inconsistent. Not the best time to be facing a Texans team that seems to be doing everything right. Winner: Texans

Monday Night

Broncos at Chargers

The Broncs’ pass rush needs to step up and get pressure on Philip Rivers, force him to make mistakes. Then Peyton Manning can make them pay. Winner: Broncos

When last I wrote about football, I was taking a break from my picks to re-evaluate the product being put on the field by the NFL, after the debacle of the replacement officials. I enjoyed the football I watched last weekend, the Packers/Saints game notwithstanding (Really NFL? Jeff Triplette?!? Wasn’t Christiana Pedersen available?). I didn’t enjoy the league just sweeping it all under the rug, but that’s to be expected.

What bugged me most was how the people who cover the game just went along with it. While the replacement officials were still working, while the fans were enduring one horrible, game-altering call after another, esteemed writers like Peter King at Sports Illustrated and Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk were saying essentially that it was fortunate that none of the bad calls had directly affected the outcome of any games. Really? So, giving a team an extra 12 yards on a penalty call in overtime because you don’t understand the rules, leading to the “gifted” team kicking the winning field goal is not affecting the outcome of the game? Please. Then, all of a sudden, after the “Golden Taint” incident, everyone’s on the bandwagon to bring back the regular officials. They start talking about the integrity of the game, and how fans might turn their backs on the game.

That’s what really burned me, the idea that I could somehow be seen as turning my back on the game. The last time I checked, a bunch of rich, greedy owners are not the game. The game is the players who go out on the field and do their thing, and the good, hard-working coaches who get them ready to perform at their best (not cheaters like Jim Harbaugh, who would have given the NFL a black eye had anyone bothered to notice or care). The game is as popular as it is because of them, and because of the fans that support the product.

Oh, and more to the point, the game is not the so-called journalists who are supposed to be covering the league, but who, when the game was threatened, proved themselves to be nothing but lackeys, shills, and apologists for the league, choosing their relationships with the league over integrity.

So, I’m back, and I’m drawing a bead on all of these so-called journalists, these succubi who would shrivel up and die without the game. With all of their connections, and all of their resources, they’re not better than me. In fact, I already proved last season that I’m better than them at picking games. They should rightfully recognize me as the best in the world. I beat them all. No more comparing myself to them in an effort to be like them. From now on, I’m going to be like me.

Dolphins at Bengals

I love the Bengals because they keep it simple on offence. Sure, throw in some creative play-calling, but the ethos is very basic: get the ball into the hands of the guys that can make plays. Nothing Dolphins’ head coach “GOB” Philbin does makes much sense. Even if he gets a good effort from his players, he manages to screw it up somehow. Someone needs to tell him that players win games. Winner: Bengals

Ravens at Chiefs

The Ravens would really have to screw up badly to lose this one. The Chiefs have talent, but they’re so inept, it’s ridiculous. Winner: Ravens

Browns at Giants

This Giants team is difficult to read, due to the steady stream of injuries. However, the Browns are so bad, it doesn’t matter. Winner: Giants

Packers at Colts

The Packers must be thinking that someone is out to get them after the past two weeks. That’s just the attitude they need. Extra added bonus: Charles Woodson LOVES to take rookie QBs to school. Winner: Packers

Eagles at Steelers

All I keep hearing is that this is the sort of game that the Steelers don’t lose. The Eagles have been extremely lucky. So naturally I’m picking the Eagles. There’s something about this matchup that seems all wrong for the Steelers. I think the Eagles D forces Big Ben into a couple of turnovers, and that’s the difference. Winner: Eagles

Falcons at Washington

As ridiculously talented as RGIII is, this Falcons’ team is really good. Winner: Falcons

Bears at Jaguars

Still no love for the Bears this week in the polls. Idiots. Like Arizona would have a remote chance of beating Chicago. Which brings us to the Jags. Worse than the Cards. Get the idea? Winner: Bears

Seahawks at Panthers

The Panthers needs to pull their heads out of their arses and figure out some kind of offensive identity. They are regressing, possibly due to the fact that they have an Easter Island statue for a head coach. Seahawks’ coach Pete Carroll made a dumb choice for his starting QB. This is not college football. If he wants to play with the big boys, he needs to get Matt Flynn behind centre. Winner: Panthers

Titans at Vikings

I’m liking the energy that I’m seeing in this Vikings team. Against the Titans’ banged-up offence and leaderless defence, well… Winner: Vikings

Broncos at Patriots

It’s amazing how the NFL managed to get this game on the schedule. It’s almost as if there’s some special attraction or matchup that would draw people to tune into this game. At any rate, the Pats beat the snot out of the Broncos twice last season. Apparently, the Broncos have a new QB this season, but he couldn’t possibly be as much of a threat as God’s chosen now, could he? Winner: Patriots

Bills at 49ers

So far, the Bills have been a major disappointment. Bills fans are used to that. The 49ers players should be able to handle things well enough so that their dirty cheater of a head coach doesn’t have to resort to any dirty cheating in order to try to win the game (not that the league gives a rat’s ass, just as long as the players dress properly). Winner: 49ers

Chargers at Saints

Can I just say that I am super-pumped that the Saints are 0-4? They really came off badly during the whole bounty investigation. Even sainted Saint Drew Brees ended up sounding like a complete douchebag. I still contend that the Chargers are no good. Eventually the Saints have to win one, right? Winner: Saints

Monday Night

Texans at Jets

I am going to enjoy watching the Texans fucking destroy the Jets on Monday Night Football. I hope Fireman Ed chokes on a hotdog. Winner: Texans

Oh, and Happy Birthday Chad, the Big Meatball in the Big Apple!