Well, I’ve been nothing if not consistent.

After a regular season of picks where I was right twice as often as I was wrong, I currently stand at a mere 4-4 with my playoff picks. I have been maddeningly consistent in compiling this record; on each of the four days of the playoffs thus far (both Saturdays and both Sundays), I have gotten one game right, and one game wrong.

Now, the law of averages would dictate that I will be correct in choosing one of the two teams which will play in the Super Bowl in two weeks. Coincidentally, I feel really confident about one of my picks this week, and rather unsure about the other. Which is which? Read on:

Ravens at Patriots

New England’s offence is humming along like a well-oiled machine right now. Their two tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, are a nightmare matchup for any defence, and if you concentrate too much on shutting both of them down, which is almost impossible, then you get killed by the precise route-running of Wes Welker. The Ravens’ best shot at stopping the Pats’ offence is to get pressure on Tom Brady, to hit him and force him to turn the ball over.  Baltimore has had trouble with their pass rush for much of the season, and the Pats’ offensive line protects Brady well. If the Ravens resort to a lot of blitzing, they play right into Brady’s hands; Brady kills teams that blitz a lot. As for Baltimore’s offence, I think it’s safe to say that shutting down Ray Rice is the key for New England’s defence. Joe Flacco has been mediocre at best for most of the season, and last week against Houston, he was terrible; despite his decent numbers, many of his passes were off-target, and he was bailed out numerous times by his receivers (And, let’s face it; I just can’t take him seriously when that moustache makes him look like White Goodman... I keep imagining him getting sacked, then getting up and saying, “Nobody makes me bleed my own blood”). New England’s much-maligned defence has played fairly well of late, especially up front, where they have been able to generate good pressure on the QB. When you add it all up, I just can’t see the Ravens being able to score nearly enough to keep pace with the Patriots. Winner: Patriots

Giants at 49ers

For the past few days, I have been hearing that the forecast for Sunday in San Francisco is rain, and quite a bit of it, which makes this most difficult matchup even trickier to predict. I think that New York’s advantages on offence are nullified by San Francisco’s depth on defence. The Giants are deep at wideout, but the 49ers generate enough pressure on the QB without having to blitz, so their defence should be able to keep New York’s passing game from having too damaging an effect. The Giants won’t be able to run the ball for any significant gains. On the other side of the ball, San Francisco needs to be able to win the battle up front, to protect QB Alex Smith and get a good enough push for Frank Gore and company to move the ball on the ground.  This shapes up to be a pretty close game, right down to the end. What it comes down to for me is Eli Manning’s ability to pull it out at the end, versus the 49ers’ defence being able to come up with big plays when they really need them. On a wet, sloppy field, I’m picking the team with the better defence. Winner: 49ers

(Note: I wrote most of this column while listening to Pink Floyd: The Wall on headphones. That I managed to get through the whole thing without using the phrase “Run Like Hell,” or worse, predicting that Joe Flacco would shave off his moustache, and eyebrows, during halftime, is nothing short of a miracle.)

I’ll dispense with the theatrics, and get right to this week’s picks:

 Saturday

Saints at 49ers

Many thousands of words have been written this week, and many statistics have been presented illustrating how this is a classic matchup between a high-powered offence and a dominating defence. And why not? That’s the marquee attraction of this game. I won’t go into it too deeply, as I’m sure you’ve already heard enough about it. Here’s my simple take on the matchup: the Saints are too talented on offence to be completely shut down, and the 49ers (with help from Candlestick Park—New Orleans has proven to be significantly less potent on grass this season) are too deep and healthy on defence to get blown out. The Saints will score, probably in the mid-to-high 20s. The real question is, “Can San Francisco score enough to keep up?” The Saints have a good, but not great, defence. The 49ers rely on a ball-control offence, with a strong running game and a QB who plays conservative, mistake-free football. The problem with San Francisco is, as efficient as their offence is, they don’t score touchdowns nearly often enough. Their kicker, David Akers, set the single-season record for field goals this season, primarily because the 49ers’ red-zone offence was so terrible. Settling for field goals will not get it done against New Orleans. Winner: Saints

Broncos at Patriots

I watched the Broncos-Steelers game last week, and, while tremendously exciting, it was also a bit baffling. Essentially, Pittsburgh’s defensive game plan was to allow Denver to do the only thing it could do to keep pace offensively, that being, to throw the ball down the field and make big plays. As I wrote last week, I expected Troy Polamalu to be used to spy on Tim Tebow in the secondary, because I figured that with his quickness and ability to read plays, he would be able to negate Tebow’s ability to make plays in the passing game, and perhaps generate some turnovers. Instead, Pittsburgh utilized Polamalu primarily as a run-stopper. The Steelers have a very potent offence, so I thought that it would have been in their best interest to force the Broncos into using their plodding, run-oriented offence which, though at times is very effective, does not produce a lot of points. Why mention any of this? I don’t think that New England will have very much trouble scoring in this game, and I think that if they learned anything by watching Broncos-Steelers last week, it would be to not allow Tebow opportunities to make big plays in the passing game. The Pats should be content to let the Broncos plod down the field and kick field goals all day. With New England scoring touchdowns on their drives, the end result will be decisive. Winner: Patriots

Sunday

Texans at Ravens

The Houston Texans this season have been like the Black Knight from “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.” They keep getting their limbs hacked off, and yet they still keep fighting on (Mario Williams? ‘Tis but a scratch. Matt Schaub? Just a flesh wound...). They have a chance in this one. If their defence can keep the score close and force some turnovers, and Andre Johnson and the rest of Houston’s receiving corps can stretch the field so that Arian Foster has a great game, then they definitely could pull an upset. I don’t see it happening, though. Baltimore can generate enough of a pass rush, and they are deep in their secondary, both of which should be able to nullify the Texans’ passing game. As a result, the Ravens’ linebackers should be able to commit to stopping the run. All that Baltimore has to do is play efficiently on offence, not trying to do too much, and avoid turnovers, and they should be fine. Joe Flacco worries me, though. If he plays poorly, this game could end up being a lot closer than it should be. Winner: Ravens

Giants at Packers

I’ve been hearing all week about how the Giants have the formula for beating the Packers, how their pass rush will force Aaron Rodgers into making mistakes, how New York is peaking at just the right time, just like when they beat New England in the Super Bowl a few years back. What a crock. The Giants’ strong finish consisted of beating a few so-so teams (Cowboys, Jets), and getting their asses handed to them by Washington. Last week, they beat an overrated and poorly coached Atlanta Falcons team, and now everyone wants to tell me that they’re going to beat Green Bay this week. Oh yeah, right, the Green Bay Packers. You remember them, don’t you? They went 15-1 this season. They rested their best players in a meaningless week 17 game against the Lions, and still won. Aaron Rodgers is going to light the Giants’ secondary up like a pinball machine. Oh, sure, Eli Manning and company will score some points too, and it will sure be fun to watch. In the end... Winner: Packers

Last week: 7-9
Final regular season total: 172-84

I finished.

When I started out doing this weekly picks column, my goal was to do one every week of the season, and to keep track of how well I did. It wasn’t easy some weeks, what with travelling, family illnesses, holidays, and whatnot, but I met my goal. Along the way, probably at about the midpoint of the season, I started to wonder, “How am I doing?”

So, the first thing I did was I headed on over to the Sports Illustrated website to check out Peter King. King writes the popular “Monday Morning Quarterback” column, which I have been reading for years, and he does picks every week as well. As luck would have it, he kept track of his progress in his picks column, so it was easy for me to compare. I was pleasantly surprised to find that I was only a few games behind him.

As the season progressed, I kept up with King’s picks, and found other “experts” who posted picks online. I looked at Mike Florio and Gregg RosenthaI at ProFootballTalk, as well as the crew at ESPN; Eric Allen, Mike Golic, Merril Hoge, Ron Jaworski, Chris Mortensen, Adam Schefter, Mark Schlereth, and Seth Wickersham. I guess my expectation was that I would find someone who was doing so well that it would make me look like an idiot, but I never did. What I found was that I was actually doing pretty well by comparison.

Overall, I am pretty pleased with my results. I had a lot of fun writing the column. Who knows, maybe I’ll do it again next season. In the meantime, I plan on continuing to write throughout the playoffs. Before I get to my picks for the Wild Card Round, here are the final picks totals for the experts who I mentioned:

Peter King: 164-92
Mike Florio: 162-94
Gregg Rosenthal: 169-87
Eric Allen: 165-89
Mike Golic: 161-95
Merril Hoge: 162-93
Ron Jaworski: 155-85 (Does not pick for Monday Night Games)
Chris Mortensen: 155-101
Adam Schefter: 158-98
Mark Schlereth: 167-89
Seth Wickersham: 167-89

Here are my picks for the first round:

Saturday Games

Bengals at Texans

This is a battle between two evenly-matched teams that both have something to prove. Cincinnati enters the playoffs with the reputation of not being able to beat good teams. Houston limped into the playoffs both figuratively, having lost its last three games, (including week 16 to the Colts), and literally, losing several key players for the season due to injuries, and with its most dangerous offensive player hobbled. Coincidentally, the last time these two teams met was Houston’s last victory, as they came from behind to beat Cincinnati in a close game. I give the Texans a slight advantage on defence, although the Bengals are certainly no slouches in that department. The key to this matchup will be quarterback play. Andy Dalton is better than T.J. Yates. However, Houston’s running game is a great equalizer, and will take some of the pressure off Yates. Under normal circumstances, I would say that Andre Johnson would be the difference maker here, helping to elevate Yates’s play. The problem, though, is that Johnson has been hampered by multiple injuries this season, and is not in the type of shape which will allow him to take over a game. This will be another close game. Andy Dalton’s rapport with his talented young receivers will be the deciding factor. Winner: Bengals

Lions at Saints

Yes, there will be a lot of points scored in this game. With two 5000-yard passers playing in a domed stadium, what else would you expect? Ironically enough, it will be defence that determines the winner here. Detroit is strong on its defensive line, but thin at linebacker, and especially thin in the secondary. Also, they do extremely poorly against teams that run the ball effectively, which the Saints do. Drew Brees gets rid of the ball quickly and is incredibly accurate, which will negate Detroit’s front-four pressure. New Orleans does a good job of pressuring the passer through creative blitzing. Detroit does not run the ball much or well, and this will allow New Orleans to key on stopping the pass. With all of the offensive numbers that this game should produce, it will be decided by one team being able to slow down the offensive onslaught of the other team enough to give them an edge. New Orleans has a better chance of doing that. If you’re looking for another indicator of the Saints’ potential success, here is a factor to consider: In their previous meeting this season, the dirty (yes, they are dirty) Saints were able to goad the Lions into several retaliatory penalties. This Detroit Lions’ team is not known for its discipline. Winner: Saints

Sunday Games

Falcons at Giants

The tendency here might be to see this as a matchup between a superior team that has to play on the road against a team that sneaked into the playoffs as the beneficiary of playing in a weak division, and therefore to pick the “better team” to win. I don’t buy it. I think that this is a bad matchup for Atlanta. The Falcons want to be a high-scoring team, where Matt Ryan throws the ball deep to his talented outside receivers a lot, but this would be a deadly mistake against a Giants team that is rushing the passer as well or better than any team in the league. The Giants are a team that can score a lot of points, and quickly, when Eli Manning is clicking well with his receivers. The Falcons won’t be able to score enough to keep up, and if they try to rely on a pass-heavy attack, Matty Ice is going to get crushed. Winner: Giants

Steelers at Broncos

Ah, the joys of NFL playoff seeding, where a 12-4 team has to play on the road against an 8-8 team. Despite the discrepancy in their records, Denver does have a slight chance in this one. Ben Roethlisberger is still hobbling. Mobility is one of the keys to Big Ben’s success, and the Denver pass rush is its greatest defensive strength.  If Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller can keep the pressure on and perhaps force some turnovers, then they can keep the score low.  The problem is the Denver offence, and how it matches up with Pittsburgh’s defence. Not having to contend with Ryan Clark is definitely to Denver’s advantage, but the main concern, as I see it, is that inevitably, Tim Tebow is going to have to throw the ball. Tebow has been a turnover machine of late. Between the Steelers’ blitzing schemes, and Troy Polamalu spying Tebow in the secondary, this game could get ugly in a hurry. Denver has to force turnovers, and avoid them, to have a chance.  Having said that... : Winner: Steelers