(Note: After being implored by a reader to post my picks earlier, I actually started writing this on Friday. However, life and family duty intruded, and I had to make a sudden unexpected trip to Cape Breton. I arrived back home at around 1am Sunday, and stayed up all night finishing this sucker. This one’s for you, Paul.)

(Another note: If you're so inclined, you can follow me on Twitter: @GFHowie) 

 Well, I made it all the way to Week 4 without one of those idiots getting to me.

I try. I mean, I really try to focus on the game. Unfortunately, I like to keep up on things, which means I have to make forays into the mainstream media to look for information. And that’s when, invariably, I see something that pisses me off.

One of the fairly recent developments in the NFL that I really like is the fact the mechanisms that the league put in place to limit rookie salaries. I watched for years as high draft picks signed progressively more ridiculous contracts, guaranteed bonuses in the tens of millions of dollars, plus salaries that often eclipsed those of proven NFL veterans, based on college statistics, and without ever having played a down of professional football.

So, you can well imagine how frustrated I was to read this post by Mike Florio on NBC’s PFT. Specifically this paragraph:

It’s believed that the 2011 rookies who have become great players will be lining up at their owners’ doors, demanding the money that was kept from them by a system aimed at keeping windfalls from going to incoming players who never earn it.  From Panthers quarterback Cam Newton to Bengals receiver A.J. Green to Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson to Falcons receiver Julio Jones to Texans defensive lineman J.J. Watt, guys taken at the top of the draft two-plus years ago will want next year what they should have gotten in the first place.

The phrases “…kept from them…” and “…what they should have gotten in the first place,” indicates clearly that Florio would be much more comfortable with a system that awards multi-million dollar guarantees to college superstars like Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Vernon Gholston, and Matt Leinart. Or, you know, you could endorse the current system which makes players earn the big contracts. All of the players mentioned on the excerpted paragraph have earned the opportunity to sign a big contract due to superior play at the pro level. If anything, the new rookie salary scale motivated them, rather than hindered them. Florio’s failure to understand this is baffling, but is indicative of a streak of arrogance which has pervaded his site since he sold out to NBC and became a blow-dried TV talking head. Case in point: in the very next paragraph of the same post, he makes this statement:

While there’s no disputing that Broncos linebacker Von Miller and 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith are among the best defensive players in the league, off-field issues could make their teams more reluctant to make a gigantic financial investment in them after only three seasons.

No disputing, eh. Well allow me to retort. Aldon Smith is in rehab, because he’s an idiot millionaire drunk driver, and will not be playing for a while. He may not even play again this season, if Uncle Roger steps up and makes the example out of him that the league sorely needs. Von Miller hasn’t played at all this season. He was suspended for six games; four is the standard for violating the league’s drug policy, plus they tacked on an extra two games because he attempted to cheat the drug testing procedure (Aside: It’s been alleged that Miller conspired with someone from the drug testing company to beat the test; if this is true, Miller should be suspended indefinitely, and should have to apply to the league for reinstatement.). Anyway, my point is this: how can you be “among the best” anything in the NFL if you’re not playing. Smith and Miller are criminals. Besides that, they’re selfish; their actions have hurt their respective teams. Are they talented? Sure. Fat lot of good that’s doing the 49ers and Broncos right now. Sitting on my couch watching the games this week, I guarantee you I will have just as many sacks and tackles as both Smith and Miller put together. Football, Florio; you remember football, don’t you? It’s played on a field.

Colts at Jaguars

Indianapolis is coming off a HUGE road win against San Francisco, and would be prime pickings if they were playing a competent team. Alas, it’s just the Jags. Winner: Colts

Seahawks at Texans

If you had asked me three weeks ago, I’d have said that this would be a titanic struggle, and that the Texans would prevail at home. However, after watching Houston’s offence struggle mightily as the team squeaked out wins against the Colts and the Chargers , then lost to the Ravens, I’m seriously starting to question whether the Texans are the contenders I thought they’d be this season. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have lived up to and beyond expectations thus far. If they can win against a tough opponent on the road, they will become the NFC’s frontrunner for certain. Winner: Seahawks

Ravens at Bills

Buffalo is coming off a horrible performance on the road against the Jets, where they lost in spite of the fact that New York was penalized (this is not a misprint) 20 times for 168 yards! CJ Spiller is banged-up, and isn’t a lock to play this week. EJ Manuel is talented, but erratic. The defence is a mess. Baltimore’s offence showed some signs of life last week against Houston. That’s bad news for the Bills, especially considering how much better the Ravens’ defence has looked on a week-to-week basis. Winner: Ravens

Bengals at Browns

Cincy is coming off a big win against the Packers. Sure, it was a sloppy, turnover-filled affair, but a comeback from 16 points down in a game where you give up 30 consecutive points to a top team is impressive no matter how you do it. Travelling to Cleveland has the whiff of “trap game” all over it. Sudden genius Marvin Lewis should have his Bengals ready. Winner: Bengals

Cardinals at Buccaneers

So, “As Tampa Turns” continues. In this episode, QB Josh Freeman gets benched for rookie Mike Glennon. The Cardinals got thumped by New Orleans last week, but the Bucs sure ain’t the Saints. Winner: Cardinals

Steelers at Vikings (In Jolly Old England)

Pittsburgh showed a bit of life against Chicago last week before turnovers did them in. Ben Roethlisberger got a little careless with the ball, and I bet he’s pretty pissed at himself. The Vikes gave up 31 points to the Brian Hoyer-quarterbacked Browns. Matt Cassel gets the start at QB for Minnesota this week. Also key is the fact that this is not a true home game for the Vikings; they'd probably do better in one of the Scandinavian countries. Winner: Steelers

Giants at Chiefs

Sure, there are lots of fans rooting for terrible teams, but is there anything quite as exquisite as the agony that Giants’ fans must be feeling about now? I mean, they expect their team to be good, and they are just absolutely horrible. Not that the Carolina Panthers aren’t a talented team, but 38-0! Now the turnover-prone Gothamites have to go into one of the loudest barns in the league to face a legitimately good defence and a QB who does not turn the ball over. I’m just sayin’… Winner: Chiefs

Bears at Lions

Chicago handled these guys last year, earning the season sweep. The Bears are better this year, particularly in pass protection, which is bad news for the Lions, who have a strong pass rush, but have not improved appreciably anywhere else on defence. Detroit’s offence upgraded slightly with the acquisition of Reggie Bush, but he’s less than 100%. Also, #2 wideout Nate Burleson is out, putting the focus of Detroit’s offence on, surprise surprise, Megatron. The Bears handled him pretty well last year, too. Winner: Bears

Jets at Titans

I’m starting to believe in the Tennessee renaissance (Tennessance?), especially after they pulled one out against San Diego last week. I still believe in the Jets. Believe that they’re terrible, that is. Winner: Titans

Washington at Raiders

I’d be comfortable picking Oakland if I knew that Terrelle Pryor was healthy. I really like this kid. I watched the Monday nighter against the Broncos; Pryor was under intense pressure all night, but he hung in and kept his cool. Pryor has a lot of talent and a good attitude. I hope, for the sake of Raider fans that he gets developed properly. They can build around this guy. This game sucks. Winner: Washington

Eagles at Broncos

As intrigued as I am about how Philly’s offence matches up against Denver, I still don’t think the Eagles will quite be able to keep up with the Broncos’ offence, which is quickly moving towards juggernaut status. Winner: Broncos

Cowboys at Chargers

Are either of these teams any good? Based on what I’ve seen of them thus far, neither is a contender. I’m basing this pick on the Cowboys’ big win last week against St. Louis. I had the distinct displeasure of watching the Rams’ putrid offence in action this past Thursday, and going from Sam Bradford to Philip Rivers could be a bit of a shock to the Dallas defence. Winner: Chargers

Patriots at Falcons

This looks like a bad matchup for Atlanta right now. New England doesn’t have to crowd the box to stop the run, allowing them to focus on pass defence. Pats CB Aqib Talib is big and physical enough to handle Falcons WR Julio Jones with Safety help over the top, which is easier to provide consistently when Roddy White is less than 100%. This game will be won or lost based on how much progress Tom Brady has made with his new young receivers. The injury-depleted Falcons’ defence should give Brady the time and space he needs. Winner: Patriots

Monday Night

Dolphins at Saints

This is another game where I’m more focused on who isn’t playing than who is. Star Miami DE Cameron Wake will either be playing hurt, or not at all, and getting pressure on Drew Brees is imperative for any defensive unit that wants to stop the Saints’ offence. I might have been tempted to pick the Dolphins here, but not without a healthy Wake. Winner: Saints

Geez, Jim Harbaugh sure has been quiet this week. A mouth full of humble pie will do that to a fella. As for me, I’ve enjoyed feasting on Harbaugh’s pain the past two weeks, and I’ll be damned if I’m not hungry again. Can the Rams help get me another helping?

Thursday Night
49ers at Rams

Easy pick, right? St. Louis is 1-2, with their only victory being a late comeback against the lowly Cardinals. San Francisco, on the other hand, is one of the top teams in the league, a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Not so fast. This one’s far from easy.

The Rams have a few advantages that shouldn’t be overlooked. They are playing at home, and in a dome. The 49ers melted two weeks ago in Seattle’s noisy crucible, and don’t think for one sweet second that the folks in St. Louis don’t know this. Anything less than a superior effort at noisy distraction by the Rams’ faithful will be a disgrace. The Rams have some good young talent at receiver and a potential star TE in Jared Cook, which will help them to exploit the coverage weaknesses in San Fran’s secondary, as well as the loss of Aldon Smith’s QB pressure. Also, the Rams have K Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein’s big boot. Sure, they can’t run the ball very well, but against the ‘niners, why should they? Let QB Sam Bradford sling it, I say.

Meanwhile, San Fran is reeling. QB Colin Kaepernick has not played well the past two weeks, showing himself to be the inexperienced QB he is rather than the superstar everyone has made him out to be (too soon) as a physically gifted athlete in a gimmicky offence. Compounding Kaepernick’s woes are a thin WR corps and the fact that his most dangerous weapon, TE Vernon Davis, will either play hurt tonight or not at all. Also, the ‘niners might be without their most valuable defensive player tonight, LB Patrick Willis, who is nursing “a groin in-jur-y” (Thanks to the immortal Sam “Mayday” Malone for that one.).

Most experts are saying that the 49ers will come roaring back with a big win after two consecutive embarrassing losses. I think they feel the pressure of that expectation, and that they’re ripe for the picking. Winner: Rams

It’s no secret: I can’t stand San Francisco 49ers’ Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.

I’ll give the man credit: he turned that team into a winner, after the disastrous tenure of previous head coach Mike Singletary, and was instrumental in saving QB Alex Smith’s career. He’s a really good football coach, when it comes to coaching football. Unfortunately, as a football coach, he’s a terrible human being. He’s a cheater, a liar, and, worst of all, he’s a hypocrite.

This week, star 49ers OLB Aldon Smith was arrested after he crashed his car, blew a 0.15, and was in possession of marijuana. At 7am! Questioned by reporters later in the day, Harbaugh said that he expected that Smith would play on Sunday. Last season, special-teamer Demarcus Dobbs, (not a starter or star) was arrested for a DUI and the 49ers did not allow him to travel with them to their next game. When asked about this double-standard, Harbaugh gave a lame excuse, then clammed up. He even had the nerve to play dumb when asked about the possession charge.

This is classic Harbaugh. Some of his other transgressions:

Earlier this year, Harbaugh, champion of fair play, admonished other teams and players to “Play by the rules.” This, from the same guy who blatantly cheated in a game against the Vikings last season, not once, but twice.

Harbaugh complained incessantly at the beginning of the season about the rule that read-option QBs could be hit, then watched as his defence took shots at Seahawks QB Russell Wilson when Wilson was in that formation.

Harbaugh complains constantly about cheap shots, like the one Packers LB Clay Matthews took at Colin Kaepernick in week one, but says nothing about the fact that his own players have been fined for personal fouls after both of this season’s games.

Harbaugh also like to trash talk. He chided Matthews for being a phony tough guy. Put on some pads, old man. Just don’t let a little noise get to you.

Chargers at Titans

Phillip Rivers has surprised me in the first two games, lighting up the Texans (impressive) and the Eagles (not so much, but still…). I’m still not completely sold on Tennessee’s defensive revival, but they have looked better this season, and it’ll be interesting to see how they handle a revitalized Rivers. San Diego’s offence is just a bit too much here. Winner: Chargers

Cardinals at Saints

Nice to see Arizona actually scoring points again; they’ve been in both of their games thus far, losing then winning in close contests. Playing the Saints in the Big Easy won’t be quite as easy, though. New Orleans’ offence is as steady as ever, and the defence has been decent so far. Winner: Saints

Packers at Bengals

Are Bengals fans starting to worry about Andy Dalton? I know I expected better from him against the Steelers last Monday night. Sure, Cincy won, but Dalton looked tentative at times, and he was often off-target on throws he should be making. I like the way the Bengals defence matches up against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offence; Cincy has depth and talent up front to pressure Rodgers and slow down any attempts to run the ball. I just can’t pick against Rodgers. Winner: Packers

Browns at Vikings

There’s been lot of talk about Cleveland trading RB Trent Richardson this week, arguably their best skill player on offence. Oddly enough, that doesn’t change my pick. The Vikings should handle this one easily. Winner: Vikings

Rams at Cowboys

St. Louis has the pass rush to make Tony Romo a very worried boy this week, and we all know what happens when Romo feels the heat, right? Winner: Rams

Texans at Ravens

Texans fans: another extremely stressed-out crew right now. Pegged as possible Super Bowl contenders, Houston has just barely been able to squeak out two wins, as their offence has struggled. Baltimore may not be the team they were last season, but they are proud, angry, and they are at home. I know it’s only week 3, but it’s time the Texans stepped up. Winner: Texans

Giants at Panthers

Who to pick here; my mind reels at the possibilities. Eli’s got the receivers he needs to put up good numbers, and New York’s pass rush is playing itself back into shape after some injuries. Still, their secondary is thin, the running game is in stasis, and they’ve been a turnover machine in the first two weeks. The Panthers have a solid defence, and the offence looks good on paper, but they have the worst coach in the league, Ron Rivera, who seems adept only at finding new and more heartbreaking ways to lose. I’d just settle for a clean, competently played and coached game here. Winner: Panthers

Lions at Washington

Those idiotic Lions lost to Arizona last week, and it looked good on them. This week, they travel to a location near the nation’s capital (where the Detroit franchise has never won, according to every sports journalist in North America, as if it mattered) to face a Washington team that has not looked very good thus far. The Lions will be without RB Reggie Bush this week (funny, but they were without him all last season, and I don’t remember the offence struggling too much), but Washington hasn’t shown much ability to stop anyone. RGIII continues to struggle in his attempt to come back from his career-ending (that’s right, I said it) knee injury. Bad enough that he isn’t as mobile, but his passing accuracy, superb last season, has gone in the shitter. One thing the Lions do well on defence is get after the QB. Will Suh grab the dreads? Nothing would surprise me. Winner: Lions

Buccaneers at Patriots

Tampa Bay is still a team in turmoil. Travelling to Foxborough to play the Pats defence is hardly a remedy for what ails the Bucs’ offence. Tom Brady continues to try to find dependable hands among his receiving corps. He’s looked good between the lines, but he looks like he’s losing patience. He probably feels the Dolphins nipping at his heels. Winner: Patriots

Falcons at Dolphins

I never saw Miami at 2-0, but after seeing their defence in action in week one, I picked them to upset the Colts last week. They certainly are getting Atlanta at an opportune time. Newly acquired RB Steven Jackson is injured, as are key contributors in the WR, LB, and OL corps. The Falcons should be particularly concerned about injuries on the offensive line, as the Dolphins’ pass rush is formidable. Matt Ryan under pressure spells good news for Miami’s opportunistic DBs. Winner: Dolphins

Jaguars at Seahawks

The Jags, one of the two or three worst team in the league, on the road in the noisiest stadium in the league, against a team that just dominated last year’s Super Bowl runner-up (I watched the whole thing, and Harbaugh’s agony was delicious). What more need be said? Winner: Seahawks

Colts at 49ers

I might be tempted to give Andrew Luck a shot in this one if San Fran had decided to bench Aldon Smith, or if the league had stepped in. In reality, the Colts don’t have nearly enough talent on defence to stop the ‘niners, and Luck, who gets hit way more than he should against most teams, is in serious trouble this week. (Aside: Imagine you’re a Colts OL who has (or knows someone who has) experienced an intense personal tragedy a the result of a drunk driver. You have a chance to cut or crack back on Aldon Smith. Are you tempted to go for his knees?) Winner: 49ers

Bills at Jets

I’m picking the Bills because I like their rookie QB EJ Manuel, and the Bills offence, much better than Jets rookie QB Geno Smith and his cohorts. Buffalo just has more talent at the skill positions. The Jets have looked better than they are against a messed-up Tampa team and in a soggy, sloppy, drop-fest against New England. Winner: Bills

Bears at Steelers

These are the types of games Chicago has to win. Sure, the Steelers are at home, but they are a mere shadow of a great team. The Bears’ defence should be able to limit the struggling Steelers more than enough for Jay Cutler and Co. to operate comfortably. Winner: Bears

Monday Night

Raiders at Broncos

Love Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor, and RB Darren McFadden is showing signs of life again. Still, the Broncos are on a roll, and they’ll keep right on rolling for now. Winner: Broncos

Thursday Night

Chiefs at Eagles

Expect Andy Reid to be welcomed back to Lincoln Financial Field in a manner that only sports fans in the City of Brotherly love can muster. And by “welcomed,” I mean showered by cascades of boos, thrown items, and profane, barely literate insults (for the rare Philadelphian capable of anything more than a grunt). Factor in the retirement of Donovan McNabb’s jersey tonight, and I’d bet that there’s not a pair of earplugs or an air freshener made that could make that environment tolerable to a civilized human.

 In the midst of all this, a football game will be played, an interesting clash of offensive philosophies. It’s been really fun to watch Michael Vick, Shady McCoy, and the rest in Chipmouse Kelly’s uptempo offence. The Chiefs have the personnel to run a more deliberate, ball-control offence; QB Alex Smith is accurate on shorter pass plays and takes care of the ball, and RB Jamaal Charles is a top-tier rusher. The key to this game is how the defences respond. After week one, I thought that the Eagles faded late due to the fast pace of their offence creating an imbalance in time of possession, but last week against the Chargers, Philly’s defence looked overmatched from the outset. KC has a better defence, and should be able to produce some stops against the Eagles. If the Chiefs are able to move the ball early on offence, the Eagles’ defenders will be completely gassed by the fourth quarter. Winner: Chiefs

I’ve had an extremely busy weekend, so I’ll skip the preliminaries and get right to business.

Rams at Falcons

Atlanta suffered a disappointing beginning to their defence of the NFC South crown by losing to arch-rival New Orleans. Roddy White’s injury served to highlight the delicate balance that exists in the Falcons’ offence; in order to run smoothly, all its parts have to be in top form. White is still less than 100%, and now, apparently, so is Julio Jones. The good news for Falcon fans is that the defence held the Saints to 23 points, no mean feat. The Rams had to stage a late comeback to beat the Cards last week, but at least their offence showed some life. This one could be closer than the Falcons will like. Winner: Falcons

Browns at Ravens

Cleveland lost at home to start the season again, as their offence succumbed to Miami’s speedy pass rush to the tune of six sacks. Baltimore got blown out in Denver, due to a disorganized with too many new parts, and a defence that got overwhelmed by Peyton Manning’s vast array of options and opportunities. Look for the Ravens to bounce back with a more solid effort at home. Brandon Weeden is no Peyton Manning. Winner: Ravens

Panthers at Bills

Bills fans, though disappointed that the team let a glorious opportunity slip away against the Pats, should be happy about the debut of QB EJ Manuel (although I spoke to one Bills fan who is reserving judgement for now). Manuel looks like he has the tools and the talent to become a legitimate NFL QB. As always, time will tell. Manuel, CJ Spiller, and the gang will be sorely tested by a tough Carolina defence this week, one which gave the Seahawks all they could handle last week. The best chance for Buffalo is if its pass rush can harry (no, that’s not a typo) Cam Newton into making mistakes and turning the ball over. Expect a low-scoring affair: Winner: Panthers

Washington at Packers

Washington’s offence looked disorganized on Monday night. The final score was deceptive, as RGIII and Co. made a late surge against an Eagles defence that was tired (more on that later). They won’t be quite so lucky in Green Bay. Winner: Packers

Titans at Texans

If you believe everything the experts are saying, then Tennessee proved last week that their defence is straightened out after last year’s horrific performance. I say, “Have you seen Pittsburgh’s offence?” Let’s just say that the Titans, to use a boxing metaphor, are stepping up in weight class. Houston won its opener, but looked unimpressive in doing so. Their vaunted defence got shredded by Phillip Rivers early, but stiffened in the second half to allow the Texans’ comeback. Houston needs a solid effort on both sides of the ball this week. I think they learned a valuable lesson against the Chargers. Winner: Texans

Cowboys at Chiefs

Kansas City did last week exactly what a team that wants to be taken seriously needs to do: they beat the shit out of a bad team. Now they host a Dallas team coming off an emotional win over its nemesis New York Giants. Sure, the Cowboys scored a lot, but they had way too many chances due to the Giants’ early ineptitude, and they still had to hang on at the end for a close win. If they’re expecting the Chiefs to just hand them a bunch of extra possessions like New York did, they’re in for a rude awakening. Winner: Chiefs

Vikings at Bears

Minnesota looked better than they are last week, but only because they played the poster boys for imbecility. Chicago won’t give them nearly as much mercy. Winner: Bears

Chargers at Eagles

Well, I watched the new Philly offence in action on Monday night, and all I can say is, “Holy shit!” They were bold, fast, innovative. Their defence faded at the end because the pace of the offence kept sending the defence back onto the field, and thus allowing Washington to mount a rally. Call the whole Chipmouse Kelly experiment a work in progress; it’s one that I will definitely watch. This week, Philip Rivers gets to see what it’s like on the other side of an early lopsided score. He could throw for 400 yards in the second half during his comeback.

I am. Winner: Eagles

Dolphins at Colts

Look out Andrew Luck; Miami’s pass rush is coming. I’m tempted to pick an upset here, and it’s my column, so what the hell. Winner: Dolphins

Lions at Cardinals

Stupid head coach. Stupid defensive coordinator. Stupid players (one of whom, I believe may be legitimately mentally unbalanced and dangerous). Is it possible for the league to suspend a whole team? Of course, then Uncle Roger would have to suspend himself for allowing things to get this bad. At any rate, there’s a game to be played. As I predicted, new Cards QB wasted no time getting the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, and the Cards actually showed some life on offence. Oddly enough, it was their defence that blew it. Palmer should be able to make a few plays against Detroit’s stinky secondary, but he’ll be running for his life against the Lions’ front four. Perhaps literally. Winner: Lions

Saints at Buccaneers

In my Thursday column, I touched on the Bucs’ soap opera. Right on cue, here come the Saints. Getting blown out at home should raise the panic level in Tampa to 11. Winner: Saints

Jaguars at Raiders

Newly anointed Raiders starting QB Terrelle Pryor has some skills. The Raiders put a hell of a fright into Indy last week. Pryor looked spectacular at times. After the game, he said he was disappointed in himself. I like this kid. Oh, and to no one’s surprise, the Jags are terrible, but at least this week, they will experience an upgrade at QB from terrible (Blaine Gabbert) to just good enough to still get you beaten (Chad Henne). Winner: Raiders

Broncos at Giants

Apparently, there’s a Peyton Manning-inspired strain of marijuana. This begs the question, “Does one smoke it in a Manning Bowl?” Now, if that’s not the best use of an overused title this week, then I’d like to know what is. The Giants had a severe case of the butterfingers last week (there’s another commercial opportunity, Elisha), and won’t be quite as bad this week. Unfortunately, New York doesn’t have enough on defence to stop Denver’s offensive juggernaut. Winner: Broncos

49ers at Seahawks

Bandwagons are funny things, aren’t they? Before last week, Seattle was in the conversation as best team in the league. Now, some experts are backtracking because they struggled against the Panthers. Seriously? No one’s going to blow out Carolina’s defence this season. Also, the Seahawks defence held Cam Newton’s offence to seven points. That’s impressive. This should be a great game. Two good offences. Two mobile QBs who can chuck it too. Two punishing running attacks. Two of the top defensive units in the league. Division rivals. Loudest barn. Genuine bad blood. Can’t wait for this one. Oh, and shut up, Harbaugh. Please, just shut the hell up. Winner: Seahawks

Monday Night

Steelers at Bengals

So, who’s playing offence for Pittsburgh besides Ben Roethlisberger? The Steelers disastrously lost C Maurkice Pouncy for the season. He’s not the only key part missing this week, either; among Pittsburgh’s losses, their best TE Heath Miller. The Bengals can’t be satisfied with just a win this week. They have to win decisively. A word of caution to Cincy’s defenders, though: when you’re sacking el Ben Grandé (and you had better be sacking him a lot), don’t let the big bastard fall on you. Winner: Bengals

So, the Jets, who I picked to earn the first pick in next year’s draft, picked up a victory in week one over a team I predicted would be much improved, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New York achieved this feat in notable fashion, winning dramatically 18-17 via a late 48 yard field goal, in rookie QB Geno Smith’s first NFL start. These Jets might be better than I thought. They might be able to give the banged-up Patriots a game on Thursday night.

Whoa. Not so fast.

That the Jets even had the opportunity to attempt the winning 48 field goal was only due to the Bucs’ Lavonte David hitting Geno Smith out of bounds and incurring a 15-yard penalty. Tampa Bay played horribly, particularly QB Josh Freeman, and for the past couple of days, I’ve been reading stories coming out of Tampa that the Buccaneers are a team in turmoil. I don’t know how much is true, but most of the talk seems to centre on Freeman and Tampa Bay head coach Greg Schiano: the players don’t like Schiano; Freeman has been late for team functions; Freeman missed the team picture; the players voted for their team captains, and Freeman was not chosen, as he had been the past three seasons; Schiano has it in for Freeman; Schiano rigged the captaincy vote… and on and on.

Kind of makes the Jets’ win seem somewhat less impressive.

In my season preview, I wrote about the challenges facing New England on offence this season. Tonight, the Pats face a few extra ripples, as they will be without 100-yard rusher Shane Vereen, who had surgery on his injured hand, and will likely be without WR Danny Amendola as well. Still, New England should have enough healthy bodies on offence to get the job done. Meanwhile, the Pats’ defensive depth in the front seven will ensure that they have enough fresh players to handle the Jets on a short week. I’m hoping for a decisive Jets defeat. As anyone who reads me regularly knows, I can’t stand the Jets, and I especially despise Jets fans. Like the ones who would allow their child to behave like this in public.

People like this should be disappointed, often, and in the worst possible way.

Go Pats!

Football’s back! And so is the Best Picks Column in the World.

This is my favourite time of the year. It’s exciting. From the time the Super Bowl ends, right up to opening day, I miss football. The first week is especially thrilling. It’s a time when hope and expectation get put to the test, when we find out what we really know about the men and teams who play this game we love. Everything to this point is speculation, conjecture, and in some cases, a heaping helping of optimism.

True to form, the Best Picks Column in the World is not entering this season timidly. I’ve picked a lot of road teams this week, including some potential upsets. If you’re the sort who likes to partake in a bit of (legal) sports wagering (I love being Canadian!), my advice to you is this: “Go and do likewise.” Early season games are the time for unexpected upsets. As I’ve said in the past, there’s money to be won, so good luck.

Enough stalling; let’s get to it. And for those of you who may have missed it, check out my modestly-titled season preview column.

Enjoy the day, folks. I know I’m going to.

Patriots at Bills

Buffalo’s best chance in this one is to come at Tom Brady hard and hope that New England’s offence still hasn’t adjusted to its drastic changes in receiving personnel. The Pats should be fine, though; they’re solid at RB, and Brady, true to form, will be prepared. Success against New England’s defence depends on the ability to exploit the secondary. Buffalo has to rely heavily on its running game, but the Pats are tough against the run. Winner: Patriots

Vikings at Lions

It’s no secret to anyone that Minnesota’s offence is extremely one-dimensional. Last year, Adrian Peterson was superhuman. The Lions will have a more balanced attack this year, thanks to the addition of Reggie Bush. If Detroit is going to progress, they have to prove that they can win the games they should win. The Vikings don’t have the passing game to be able to exploit the weaknesses in the Lions’ defence, which means that all Detroit has to do is stop Peterson. They can. Winner: Lions

Titans at Steelers

Pittsburgh looks like a team in transition, headed for a third-place finish in their division and another year out of the playoffs. Fortunately for them, they open the season against a Titans team with serious problems on defence. I expect Tennessee to try to run the ball a lot, and if they’re successful, they could keep it close. The Steelers will grind out a win in the end. Winner: Steelers

Raiders at Colts

This Raiders team looks like one of the worst in the league, so it’s hard to imagine them going on the road and beating the Colts and Andrew Luck, who looked like the real deal in his rookie season. Winner: Colts

Falcons at Saints

This is a big matchup to start the season for both teams. The Saints hope to bounce back from the extreme disappointment of last season with the return of Sean Payton. The Falcons want to keep control of the division and hopefully make a deep run in the playoffs. Both teams have potent offences, so I expect to see a lot of points. The difference in this game should be the Saints’ defence. It was historically bad last season. Atlanta has all its major players returning from last season’s offence, plus they added RB Steven Jackson. New Orleans won’t be able to keep up. Winner: Falcons

Buccaneers at Jets

I expect the Bucs to be a much-improved squad this season. I’ve already pegged the Jets for first pick in next year’s draft. Winner: Buccaneers






Bengals at Bears

Now here’s a game I’m really looking forward to, between two teams with the potential to go far this season. Chicago is a bit of a question mark, after undergoing some personnel changes on defence, as well as some major changes in the coaching staff. Cincinnati seems a bit easier to figure. As I said in my season preview, their time is now. What better statement than a victory on the road against a top team? Cincy’s defence will harass Jay Cutler enough to slow down the Bears attack. How Andy Dalton performs will tell a lot about how ready he is to lead this team. Winner: Bengals

Dolphins at Browns

I’m not at all sold on Miami’s ability to generate much offence this season, and they should have a particularly tough time against Cleveland’s defence. Expect a low-scoring contest. Winner: Browns

Chiefs at Jaguars

Kansas City is a team on the rise. The upgrade to Alex Smith at QB should complement the running game well, and say what you want about Andy Reid, but he’s much better than Romeo Crennel, who didn’t seem to know what was going on half the time. I don’t see much in the Jags to make me think they’ll be much better than last season. Winner: Chiefs

Seahawks at Panthers

Tough road test for a Seahawks team many are calling the best in the NFC, having to deal with Cam Newton and a talented Carolina defence on opening day. These are the games where we see what teams are made of. Don’t be surprised if it’s close, but the Panthers’ lack of diversity on offence will be the difference. Winner: Seahawks

Packers at 49ers

Another great first week matchup with lots of questions to be answered. How will the Green Bay offence look with its new young RBs? Has the Packers’ defence improved? Can the San Fran offence overcome its lack of depth at WR? Has the 49ers’ secondary improved? Early in the season, offence is king. Look for Aaron Rodgers to be the difference maker. Winner: Packers

Cardinals at Rams

I don’t expect either of these teams to contend. If the Cards are smart, then new starting QB Carson Palmer goes to Larry Fitzgerald early and often. Winner: Cardinals

Giants at Cowboys

With these two evenly-matched teams playing early in the season, I’ll give the edge to Tony Romo and his talented group of receivers. Winner: Cowboys

Monday Night

Eagles at Washington

People are expecting big things from Washington after RGIII took the league by storm last year and guided the team to a playoff berth. They’re ripe for a fall, especially since no one knows how well Griffin will play after being injured at the end of last season. Philly and their new up-tempo offence will overwhelm Washington. Expect a big game running and receiving by Shady McCoy. Winner: Eagles

Texans at Chargers

San Diego was bad last year. They’ll be worse this year. Houston is a legitimate contender. This is no contest. Winner: Texans

You came here for predictions, so let’s start off with a biggie: The New York Jets will claim football’s most-coveted prize!

No, not that one. Sorry. I meant first pick in the draft next year. (Suck on that, Fireman Ed.)

Last season, I was able to correctly predict 9 of the 12 playoff teams (5 out of 6 in the AFC… damn you Buffalo!) with my highly unscientific method of looking at each matchup for the entire season and predicting a winner based upon my current impression of the teams, then counting the wins. So, absent any better ideas, I guess I’ll be sticking with that.

You know, projecting the outcome of a football season is like trying to predict the weather in Nova Scotia. With both, there are myriad factors to consider. A meteorologist relies on what has happened in the past, throws in a bit of what’s expected for a particular month, season, or geographic location, and looks at atmospheric  conditions (plus a generous helping of hope) before making a very scientific determination of what weather we can expect.

Then a freak hailstorm in the middle of a July heat wave destroys your garden and wrecks your siding.

Or, to put it another way, count on something unforeseen taking all your expectations and pummelling them into mush.

(BTW, Meteorology is a bogus science, right up there with astrology and phrenology, am I right? Meteorologists are more like bookmakers. I mean, what does “a 30% chance of rainfall” mean, anyway? If I bet the rain, do I get better odds? Bah! It either rains or it doesn’t.)

There’s a game tonight, and I’m pretty excited. It’s a rematch of one of last season’s AFC divisional playoff games. I’ll be giving my pick at the end of this column, but let me tease you a bit with this: only one of these teams will make it to the postseason this year.

So, welcome aboard (welcome back to some of you). I hope you enjoy the column. Some guys make picks like they’re reading the bumps on Troy Aikman’s head, or doing star charts for all of Antonio Cromartie’s kids (like anyone’s got that kind of time).  Me, I just watch the games, so keep coming back each week for the Best Picks Column in the World, and I won’t steer you wrong.



NFC

East

Giants

Cowboys

Eagles

Washington

First surprise. I was expecting Dallas to prevail here, but when I finished counting the wins, they were tied with the Giants, with New York prevailing based on common opposition. I don’t expect either team to be great. Dallas will benefit from having an offence with talent at the skill positions and by having a healthy LB Sean Lee playing in a more simplified, Rob Ryan-free defence. The Giants will have a productive passing game, and their defence will improve provided Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck remain healthy. The Eagles (a team I picked to win this division the past two seasons) will be exciting, with the implementation of Chip Kelly’s (henceforth, “Chipmouse;” anyone care to guess why?) up-tempo offence, but my days of betting on Michael Vick are over. Philly will fizzle. As for Washington, the insanely-talented RGIII took the league by storm last season, then got hurt due to the misguided neanderthalism of past-his-prime coach Mike Shanahan. A repeat of last season’s playoff appearance is too much to ask of a second-year QB whose skill will be surprising to no one, and who may now have a bum wheel.



North

Packers

Bears

Lions

Vikings

The Packers were the class of this division last season, despite having a lot of trouble with injuries. They have a deep and talented defence, an offence led by the best QB in the league, and a couple of talented rookie RBs, any improvement in the injury department should result in Green Bay winning this division comfortably. Provided that Chicago can protect Jay Cutler, he has the talent and the complimentary players for the Bears to be able to match scores with most teams. Their defence, may actually improve with the retirement of Brian Urlacher, who had become a bit of a liability on the field. The Lions will be better on offence as the addition of Reggie Bush will take some of the focus off Calvin Johnson. On defence, Detroit is still one-dimensional, with a solid front four, but a lack of talent and depth in its LB and DB corps. The Lions are probably talented enough to challenge for a playoff spot, but lack discipline and too often make stupid, unprofessional mistakes. The blame for this can be placed at the feet of the coaching staff, especially Head Coach Jim Schwartz and Defensive Coordinator Gunther Cunningham, neither of whom are willing to hold players accountable or to lead by setting a good example. The Vikings rode a historically productive season by Adrian Peterson to a surprise playoff berth last season. NFL defences will not allow Peterson to repeat his phenomenal performance, leaving QB Christian Ponder to lead the team to points. In this division, it’s a long way to the top.



South

Falcons

Buccaneers

Saints

Panthers

Despite the rumblings about an Atlanta tumble, I have no trouble installing them as favourites in this division. Matt Ryan to Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzales should be just as potent as it was last season, and the addition of versatile RB Steven Jackson is definitely an upgrade over Michael Turner. Any of the other three teams in this division could make the playoffs, but present too many unanswered questions for me to get solidly behind any of them. A return to form of new Buc Darrelle Revis automatically makes the defence a force to be reckoned with. Any measure of offensive consistency would vault this team into playoff contention. The Saints will benefit from the return of coach Sean Payton, and Drew Brees is still Drew Brees, but they were a bad team on defence last year, and I don’t trust new Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan to be able to improve the unit much. The Panthers have enough talent around Cam Newton to make a potent offence, and a defence led by budding superstar and unstoppable tackling cyborg Luke Kuechly. However, poor coaching has stifled Newton’s and the rest of the team’s potential.



West

49ers

Seahawks

Cardinals

Rams

A lot of experts are calling this one for Seattle, and I was leaning that way. The numbers gave the division to San Fran, in the squeakiest of squeakers. Although I have concerns about the 49ers’ lack of depth at wideout, their defence will still be murderous. Also, San Fran benefits from hosting the Texans and Falcons, while Seattle must play the same teams on the road.  Seattle will be tough on both sides of the ball, and could easily take the division should the ‘niners falter. Carson Palmer is a serious upgrade at QB for Arizona, which should make Larry Fitzgerald happy. Unfortunately, Palmer should qualify for danger pay for playing behind the Cards’ horrible offensive line. Short of a trade, Fitzgerald should spend another season as the league’s most irrelevant superstar. Rams QB Sam Bradford is a bust. That should finally be apparent to everyone after St. Louis drafts in the top five next year.

NFC Wild Cards: Bears, Seahawks



AFC

East

Patriots

Dolphins

Bills

Jets

For Pats fans, here’s the bad news: players who totalled 338 receptions, 3984 receiving yards, and 29 TDs last season are either playing elsewhere, currently injured, or, you know, that other thing that happened. There’s lots of good news. First, the guy who threw those passes will still be behind center, and he will definitely have something to prove. Second, the Pats are deep and talented at RB. Third, this should be the best defence New England has fielded in years. And perhaps best of all, Belichick, Brady, and the gang will have lots of time to work out the kinks, because there are no serious contenders to challenge them in the division. Did you ever know a guy who had a super-expensive, state-of-the-art car stereo, but he put it in a really crappy car? We all made fun of that guy, right? Prized free-agent WR Mike Wallace is the quadrophonic Blaupunkt in this scenario. The Miami offence is the ‘84 Fiero. Miami fans would prefer an ’84 Marino, but that model was discontinued. Hard to know what’s going on in Buffalo. Due to preseason injuries, they will have an either a highly drafted but untested rookie, or an undrafted rookie starting on opening day. Meanwhile, they screw around with one of their best players, S Jarius Byrd, who now is gimpy and may not play. The Jets are horrible. Their choices at QB are a nightmare. It’s hard to see anything good about this team. Rest easy, Pats fans. At least until the playoffs.



North

Bengals

Ravens

Steelers

Browns

Now is the time, Bengals. The defence is talented and deep. The team wisely signed cornerstone DT Geno Atkins to a long-term deal. They are improved at RB over last season. They have a game-changer at WR in the phenomenally talented AJ Green, as well as plenty of talent at the other receiver positions. Now QB Andy Dalton has to step up and take them to the next level. Barring injuries, it’s really all up to Dalton. No pressure. The Super Bowl champs got hot at the right time last season. They took the shackles off Joe Flacco and let him throw it deep, and the rest of the team stepped up and played out of their mind. A few breaks here and there, and they were golden. This season, Baltimore’s offence could struggle. Anquan Boldin is gone, and Dennis Pitta is injured. I don’t know how the Ravens will adjust to these losses. Also, despite their age, departed vets Ray Lewis and Ed Reed provided tremendous leadership. Same old Steelers (and I do mean old). Ben Roethlisberger makes the offence go, as does S Troy Polamalu the defence. Both are an injury waiting to happen. The Steelers will struggle. Defence and a decent running game should make Cleveland competitive, but they still need a QB. They’re heading in the right direction, but are still a couple of years away.



South

Texans

Colts

Titans

Jaguars

The Texans are another team that has to strike while the iron is hot. They have a well-coached, top defence, led by the otherworldly JJ Watt. Also, the offence is good enough to take them deep into the playoffs, provided the key players on the offensive line stay healthy and keep the running game humming along. QB Matt Schaub has to show that he can win. He has the tools around him. Indy QB Andrew Luck was a revelation last year, elevating the Colts. He should continue to play well, and the Colts will be in the playoff hunt again. Does Titans QB Jake Locker have what it takes? A healthy Kenny Britt and a deep running attack should clear things up. I’m not sold on Locker, or the Tennessee defence. The Jags are bad. They have nowhere to go but up. Maurice Jones-Drew will have a chance to shut his yap and get on the field to see if he can elevate his team out of the division cellar. I hope he doesn’t get hurt; some players can be real assholes when another player gets injured.



West

Broncos

Chiefs

Chargers

Raiders

Improvements in the receiving corps should be enough to sustain Denver through some early instability on defence, as the team recovers from the loss (due to front-office idiocy) of Elvis Dumerville and Von Miller (suspension), as well as some injuries to other key players. Forget about a deep playoff run, however. The defence won’t be anywhere near as good as it was the past two seasons, and even if the Broncs reach the Super Bowl, it’ll be played in cold weather, so Peyton Manning will stink. Hold on to your hats; here come the Chiefs. New QB Alex Smith steps into a great situation, coached by the world’s smartest walrus Andy Reid, and surrounded by talent at receiver and a punishing running game. There’s more talent on defence too. Watch out for KC. Poor Phillip Rivers continues his decline, with less and less talent around him. As for the Raiders, their best player, RB Darren McFadden, can’t stay healthy. Carrying an entire offence wears a guy down.

AFC Wild Cards: Colts, Chiefs


Now for tonight’s game:

Ravens at Broncos

This game is almost as much about who isn’t playing as who is. No Bolden, Pitta, Lewis, Reed. No Miller, Bailey. There are also the new additions. Dumerville is a Raven now. The Broncos added WR Wes Welker and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. History doesn’t mean a lot here, either. Denver should have beaten Baltimore back in January. Unfortunately, the Ravens hit some big plays, and Old Man Peyton and his bum neck hit the wall in the mile-high cold. It’s September, though, Manning will be fine, and the Broncos will win because their offence will move the ball well, and the Ravens offence won’t be able to answer. Winner: Broncos

Enjoy the game. Enjoy the season. Keep coming back. Tell your friends. And, most importantly, the Jets suck.