It’s American Thanksgiving once again. If you watch any amount of TV from the states, you know that this holiday means a lot to our neighbours to the south. It’s that special day when they give thanks for the opportunity to stuff themselves with food until they almost burst, then prepare for the orgy of crass consumerism known as “Black Friday.”

Oh, America. You know I love you. I kid because I love.

For me, and the thousands of Canadians like me (as well as a lot of Americans too), American Thanksgiving means Football with an upper-case “F!”

Now, before I get to my picks, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention my favourite game from week 12: the Buccaneers at Detroit. In my column last weekend, I wrote:


I find it hard to trust the Lions anyway, but as divisional frontrunners, with so much at stake, they’re bound to screw up somehow. Winner: Buccaneers

So, did you watch the game? I did, and I loved every exquisite minute of it. I know that I said that the Lions would find a way to screw up, but I couldn’t have imagined it would be so epic. Matt Stafford threw 4 INTs (including a deadly pick-6 at the end of the first half), and the Lions also had a punt blocked and a weird fumble in the 4th quarter to basically hand the game to the Bucs. Tampa let them hang around, though, refusing to put them away, missing two field goals in the 4th, and allowing Detroit one last drive to tie or win it. And down the field went the Lions, moving into field goal range, but still hoping to keep the drive alive by converting a long 3rd down. So there’s Stafford, under pressure, backpedaling, throwing up a prayer (like he’s done so many times before) to the unstoppable Megatron… and… HE MAKES THE CATCH FOR THE FIRST DOWN!!!

Then he fumbles. The best receiver in the NFL fumbles.

Game over.

The Detroit Lions.

There’s probably not a team in the league I like to root against more. I’ve written about it many times before. Their head coach is dumb, and possibly mentally unbalanced (apparently I’m not the only one who has negative opinions of the guy). Their defensive coordinator is a jerk, and he presides over a collection of the most undisciplined players in the league. And, not to belabour the point (anyone who reads me regularly should know what I think), Ndamukong Suh is a legitimately dangerous individual who may very well have some sort of personality disorder.

The Detroit Lions. There’s no love. I’m not kidding.

Which brings us to:

Packers at Lions

It’s week 13, and the Detroit Lions are the very embodiment of that number; bad luck for themselves, and bad luck for any player who runs afoul of their idiotic defensive front four. Hell, they even have a player, Nate Burleson, who wears number 13. Here they are, with another chance to seize control over the NFC North, against a Green Bay team without Aaron Rodgers. I’m not worried about the Packers’ ability to move the ball on offence; Matt Flynn proved last week that he’s still a capable QB, and he’s back in a familiar system where he has had success in the past. Also, Green Bay’s wonderful rookie RB Eddie Lacy has had an impressive campaign thus far. I’m a bit more worried about Green Bay’s ability to stop the Lions’ offence, especially Calvin Johnson. On paper, this looks like a Detroit victory. I’m basing this pick a bit on hope and a bit on expectation. I hope that the Packers can hang around long enough to get Rodgers back, because it would be a shame to have the league’s best QB sitting at home during the playoffs. I expect the Lions to screw up. Is it too much to ask them to do it so epically three weeks in a row (I didn’t forget the Steelers’ fiasco)? Probably. Still… Winner: Packers

Raiders at Cowboys

I have much less to say about this game. The Cowboys, for all their struggles, are clearly the better team, are playing at home, and are in the thick of the NFC East race. Winner: Cowboys

Steelers at Ravens

Baltimore wins at home, loses on the road. That’s been the pattern. However, with a rivalry like Steelers/Ravens, you can toss that out the window. The Ravens’ offence is bad, particularly the running game. The Steelers, despite a bad start to the season, have turned themselves around and, though not elite, are competitive every week. Right now, Pittsburgh is the better team, and they should be able to grind out a victory to remain in the playoff picture. Winner: Steelers


Happy Thanksgiving to all of my American family, friends, and readers.

I haven’t much time this week to say much more than, “It’s been a crazy season thus far.” 

Bring on the rest, I say.




Panthers at Dolphins

The Panthers, fresh off a big victory over the Pats on Monday night, are on a roll. I expect them to roll over the Dolphins this week, as they keep the pressure on New Orleans for the NFC South title. Winner: Panthers

Chargers at Chiefs

So much disrespect for the now 9-1 Chiefs. Understandable, after they got blown out by the Broncos last week in Denver, right? What’s that you say; it wasn’t a blowout? Funny, that’s how I remember it too. The Chiefs are fine, and I’ll be eagerly anticipating their rematch with the Broncos at Arrowhead in week 13. In the meantime, they have the Bolts coming to town. As long as KC remains focused on this game, and doesn’t get caught looking ahead to next week, they should be fine. Falling behind quickly to Rivers and Co. is always a real possibility. Winner: Chiefs

Bears at Rams

The Rams should be well-rested after their bye, and are coming off an impressive 38-8 shellacking of the Colts the week previous. The Bears won a squeaker at home in stormy weather last week against the can’t-win-on-the-road Ravens, and still have one of the most porous defences in the league. I envision a lot of Rams offence in this one. Winner: Rams

Vikings at Packers

This is the season for Green Bay. Detroit did them a favour by stupiding away their game against the Steelers last week, but Packers/Lions on Thanksgiving is looming, and there’s still no timetable for Aaron Rodgers’s return. Mike McCarthy had better have Scott Tolzien on a short leash this week, lest he throw away another winnable game. Winner: Packers

Jets at Ravens

Hard to figure this Jets team; they’re hot and cold, and when they’re cold, it’s usually because Geno Smith becomes a turnover machine. This pick is purely about geography; the Jets don’t win on the road, and the Ravens only win at home (right, Joe?). Winner: Ravens

Jaguars at Texans

How low the Texans can sink at this point is really anyone’s guess. I like the Jags’ chances in this one because it’s in Houston. Think about it: As the Texans’ season has sunk further and further into the abyss, their once hopeful fans have come to epitomize ugly behaviour, even sinking as low as to cheer their own players’ injuries. I have to wonder what effect it has on a players’ psyche when thoughts like “Why should I put my body on the line for these assholes?” start to creep in. The Texans should win this one, but one bad play, and the “Here we go again” vibe spreads fast, on the field and in the stands. Winner: Jaguars

Buccaneers at Lions

This one looks like an easy pick, but I’m not so sure. The Bucs have been gradually getting better since the departure of Josh Freeman and the ascension of Mike Glennon to starting QB. The Lions’ defence, once you get past the front four, still has lots of weaknesses to exploit. I’ll also be curious to see what Darrelle Revis can do against Calvin Johnson. I find it hard to trust the Lions anyway, but as divisional frontrunners, with so much at stake, they’re bound to screw up somehow. Winner: Buccaneers

Steelers at Browns

As much as I’d like to count the Steelers out, they have looked a bit better the past couple of weeks. This looks like a close one to me. Winner: Steelers

Colts at Cardinals

There’s hope in the desert, as Cards players and fans are suddenly dreaming about the playoffs. Unfortunately, Carson Palmer is involved. Wake up Arizona. Wake up. Winner: Colts

Titans at Raiders

Every time I say, “Matt McGloin,” I can’t help thinking about George C. Scott’s award winning performance in “Football in the Groin.” That said, I like the Raiders at home, even without Terrelle Pryor in the lineup. Winner: Raiders

Cowboys at Giants

I was thinking about picking the Giants this week just to upset my buddy Chad, who believes my picking against them has some mystical power that causes them to win. Chad will be happy, because I’m picking Dallas. This ends here. Winner: Cowboys

Broncos at Patriots

I was sorely tempted to pick the Pats in this one, but they have too many DBs appearing on this week’s injury report. New England’s best hope is that their running game is solid, and Brady and his receivers are in synch; a methodical approach on offence will keep Peyton Manning off the field and on the cold sidelines. A shootout favours the Broncs. Winner: Broncos

Monday Night

49ers at Washington

Washington’s defence is just what the doctor ordered for struggling Colin Kaepernick. An impressive performance in this one will have everyone on his bandwagon again. Good. It will also set 49ers’ fans up nicely for the inevitable disappointment when he flames out in the playoffs. Winner: 49ers

Just a quick look at the standings will tell anyone that this is a week when a lot of teams are going to have to turn it up a notch. In the AFC: the once-unassailable Pats find themselves hotly-pursued by their arch-rivals, the Jets; the injury-plagued Bengals face a head-to-head challenge from their top division challenger, Cleveland; the Chiefs travel to Denver in search of a win and respect, and; the Chargers, Ravens, and Dolphins just hope to stay in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, in the NFC: the Bears and Packers, without their number one QBs, have to find a way to keep pace with the North-controlling Lions; the Saints hope to hold off the surging Panthers in the South; the Cardinals are still holding out hope for a wild card berth, and; the East, amazingly, is still any team’s for the taking.

This is the time of year when teams need to dig deep. Through, adversity, pressure, injuries, even when they think they’ve given it all they can, they have to ask themselves, “Where can we go from here?” They have to find a way to find that little extra push over the cliff. Should make for some exciting football.

Lions at Steelers

The Steelers are tough at home, but their defence is a shadow of its former self, and the Lions can move the ball. On offence, the Steelers lack of an effective running game means that Ben Roethlisberger will be running for his life against Detroit’s daunting front four. Winner: Lions

Browns at Bengals

Bengals’ fans must be wondering if the team is jinxed (Any Bengals’ fans want to chime in here?); few teams have struggled as much with injuries to key players. The pressure is really on Cincy’s offence this week, as the suddenly too-close-for-comfort Browns come to town. Cleveland has proven to be a dangerous foe when QBs not named Brandon Weeden are behind centre. Cagey veteran Jason Campbell will make this a tough test for the Bengals, in what should be a close contest. Winner: Bengals

Raiders at Texans

My favourite new player this season is out, as is Darren McFadden, thus alleviating my fear of picking Houston to do anything but self-destruct. Winner: Texans

Falcons at Buccaneers

I always find these games so tough to pick; two teams going nowhere. Tampa looks like the better choice, from a healthy talent perspective, and they’re playing at home. Winner: Buccaneers

Jets at Bills

The Jets’ tough defence against a Buffalo offence that may have to resort to pulling people out of the stands to play wideout is the deciding factor in this one, even though the thought of taking hot-then-cold rookie QB Geno Smith on the road makes me cringe. Look out Pats; here come the Jets. Winner: Jets

Ravens at Bears

Because of the Bears’ putrid defence, I was leaning toward the Ravens, until I heard that the weather in Chicago is supposed to be nasty, with thunderstorms followed by high winds. I’m going with reliable Josh McCown and Chicago’s superior running attack leading the way. And besides, my buddy Joe insists that the Ravens can’t win on the road. Winner: Bears

Washington at Eagles

Philly’s offence, which looked stagnant only a few short weeks ago, has been humming along again with Nick Foles running things. The Eagles should be able to light up the porous Washington defence like an early Christmas tree, giving Philly fans the treat of a rare home win. Winner: Eagles

Cardinals at Jaguars

Congratulations on winning last weekend, Jaguars. You may now relax and return to losing. I hope you get a really good player in next year’s draft. Winner: Cardinals

Chargers at Dolphins

The Dolphins are done. Poor Ryan Tannehill was one of the worst-protected QBs in the league BEFORE his terrible offensive line was revealed to be the NFL-equivalent of “Mean Girls.” Not only am I picking San Diego, but I’m going on record that I hope Miami loses all of their remaining home games. Their asshole fans deserve that. Winner: Chargers

Vikings at Seahawks

I don’t anticipate Seattle having much difficulty handling the Vikings in the noisy confines of CenturyLink Field. Winner: Seahawks

Packers at Giants

In the less-than-stellar NFC East, the 3-6 Giants are still a viable playoff contender. Green Bay is another of those teams that has seen its high hopes severely hindered by injuries to its best players. The Packers have to try to keep pace with the division-leading Lions. If ever there was a week for the Packers’ defence to come through with a superior effort, this is it. They need to pressure Eli Manning, force some turnovers, and let the running game grind out a victory. Expect a close game. Winner: Packers

49ers at Saints

I find it difficult to put too much stock in either one of these teams. Neither one has beaten any really good opponents. For this game, though, I’ll go with Drew Brees and his high-octane offence, at home. Winner: Saints

Chiefs at Broncos

I get it, really, I do: Peyton Manning and all his receiving weapons scoring TDs at record pace, against a KC team that no one really believes is as good as its 9-0 record, so why not make the Broncos huge favourites? No, wait, I don’t get it. Here’s what I see: Manning is gimpy, with injuries to both ankles; KC’s defence is really, really good, can get solid pressure up the middle and on the edge, and has a deep secondary; KC’s offence is efficient, runs well, eats clock, and takes care of the ball; Denver’s defence is not very good; Jack Del Rio is running the show in Denver in John Fox’s absence, and; November nights in the mile-high city are chilly, which brings us back to Manning. If the Chiefs can get off to a good start and avoid falling behind early, the Broncos are in for a long night. Winner: Chiefs

Monday Night

Patriots at Panthers

Let’s put aside the mystique of Brady, at night, in a nationally-televised game that is now a must-win due to the lurking Jets, and deal with the facts:  this Carolina defence isn’t just good; it may be the best in the NFL right now. That’ll be the difference against a Pats team that can’t count itself as among the league’s best on either side of the ball. Winner: Panthers

Since I probably won’t have time to do anything else this weekend, here are my picks for week 10. Call it my unofficial bye. I’ll be back next week.

(Winners in Bold Print)

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Detroit at Chicago

Philadelphia at Green Bay

St. Louis at Indianapolis

Seattle at Atlanta

Oakland at N.Y. Giants

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Buffalo at Pittsburgh

Carolina at San Francisco

Houston at Arizona

Denver at San Diego

Dallas at New Orleans

 

Monday Night


Miami at Tampa Bay

I would be remiss if I started this week’s picks without mentioning that I was wrong about my Thursday pick of the Bengals over the Dolphins. Dolphins’ fans the world over rejoiced:

(Above: Wes Welker, plays a mean mandolin)

 

Years ago, some friends of mine and I often wondered why, when there have been so many signature celebrations in the NFL, no one has ever broken out “The Safety Dance” after recording a safety. In a league where players routinely leap into the stands, kiss their biceps, mime home run swings, and even dance like Pee Wee Herman, it’s high time for “The Safety Dance” to make an appearance. If any player does it, I will instantly become his number one fan.



Chargers at Washington

Washington’s offence has shown some signs of life in recent weeks, but even Denver’s defence was able to stiffen against RGIII and Co. in the 4th quarter last week. I doubt Washington can keep pace with the Chargers. Winner: Chargers

Falcons at Panthers

An interesting matchup of division rivals going in opposite directions; the Panthers are on a roll now that they have adopted a more aggressive attitude on offence to match their defence, while the Falcons are in the middle of a nightmare campaign, their high expectations lost in a morass of injuries. Winner: Panthers

Saints at Jets

Even if the Jets’ destruction last week at the hands of the Bengals was an aberration, they will still be hard-pressed to keep pace with this New Orleans offence. Winner: Saints

Chiefs at Bills

Buffalo’s defence is tough, but their offence will have a tough time against KC’s D, especially without Thad Lewis at QB. Winner: Chiefs

Titans at Rams

It seems to me that lately, when the AFC playoff picture has been discussed, the Titans have been overlooked. When I look at the way they’ve played, particularly when Jake Locker is behind centre, as well as at their remaining schedule, they look like, minimum, a 9-win team. I good thumping of the Rams this week might get people to take some notice. Winner: Titans

Vikings at Cowboys

OK, Cowboys. You’ve been down this road many times before. Time to shake off yet another heartbreak and get back to business. You have to make the playoffs so that you can crush your fans again. Winner: Cowboys

Eagles at Raiders

Philly’s offence has evaporated. Denizens of The Black Hole must be loving Terrelle Pryor by now. I know I am. Winner: Raiders

Buccaneers at Seahawks

Bad Bucs. Twelfth Man. How much? Winner: Seahawks

Steelers at Patriots

Two QBs with five rings between them, whose teams have seen better days. Pittsburgh will give them all they can handle, but New England should prevail, based on its superior running game. Winner: Patriots

Ravens at Browns

This looks like a tricky one to call, with the lacklustre Ravens playing on the road against a tough Cleveland defence. I just don’t think the Browns’ offence is good enough to pull this one out. Winner: Ravens

Colts at Texans

When last we saw the Colts, they were celebrating yet another decisive win against one of the league’s top teams (Denver), and heading into their bye with the enormous challenge of moving on without top receiver Reggie Wayne. I think they’ll be fine. They are well-coached, play excellent defence, and have the superb Andrew Luck behind centre. Houston? What the hell happened? Winner: Colts

Monday Night

Bears at Packers

Here are the facts: Aaron Rodgers, plus Eddie Lacy and the Packers’ vastly improved running game, against a Bears team with a defence that gives up a lot of points, and without Jay Cutler to answer back on the scoreboard. This could get ugly. Winner: Packers