Last week’s picks: 11-5
Season total: 21-11

No time for a long introduction this week, so let’s just dive in with the picks:

Lions at Vikings

The Lions have done well the first two weeks, and have proven that they will have to be taken seriously, at least until they get a real test against a higher class of opponent. The Vikings are not that test. In their first two games, they have shown an inability to finish games, blowing leads twice. Donovan McNabb has not played well. Percy Harvin can’t get on the field for some reason. Winner: Lions

Broncos at Titans

The Broncos were lucky to barely win at home last week against Cincinnati, and continue to be plagued by injuries to important personnel. If I had not seen the game, I might have been tempted to say that the Titans beat Baltimore last week only because the Ravens suffered a letdown after their emotional victory against Pittsburgh. Yes, the Ravens did not play a good game. However, Tennessee did not merely beat Baltimore. The game was not close. The Titans dominated. It’s entirely possible that Matt Hasselbeck has never played with a receiver as young and talented as Kenny Britt, and they are quickly developing a rapport. The offensive line kept Hasselbeck clean against the Ravens. Tennessee’s defence also looked very good. The Titans should win easily. Winner: Titans

49ers at Bengals

San Francisco, as advertised, is not very good. They blew a 10-point lead to the Cowboys last week, due in part to some questionable coaching decisions. As for Cincinnati, they seem to be good enough to hang around long enough to make teams sweat. Andy Dalton has played well, and the defence has been stiff so far, though admittedly against mediocre competition. The Bengals should be able to handle the 49ers in this one. Winner: Bengals

Texans at Saints

This has the potential to be a really high-scoring affair. It will be the first real test for the re-vamped Houston defence. And what a test it will be. The Texans will learn what it is like to face an extremely efficient offence, led by a poised and deadly-accurate QB, and they will be better for the experience. They will lose, however. The Saints offence is just too much for the Texans right now. Winner: Saints

Giants at Eagles

The Giants looked better last week than they did in their season-opener, but they were playing the not-ready-for-prime-time Rams. The Eagles are a major step-up in competition, one the Giants won’t be able to handle. Philadelphia is coming off a tough road loss to Atlanta, and will bring its A-game to this contest. Eli Manning gets picked-off at least twice in this one. Winner: Eagles

 
Dolphins at Browns

Miami finally leaves its home-field disadvantage behind and heads out on the road. They look like a real mess. They’re desperate for a win, though, so look for them to jump out to an early lead against the underachieving Browns. Peyton Hillis has apparently been battling an illness this week, and was listed as “Questionable” in the injury report. I’ve seen “Contagion;” he may not survive until game day. Winner: Dolphins

Jaguars at Panthers

Playing QB in the NFL is supposed to hard, right? Cam Newton is scary-good already. He has a lot to learn, but he makes up for a lot with his natural physical abilities, maturity, and patience. He played extremely well again last week, giving Green Bay fans a scare, before crafty veteran Charles Woodson finally gave the rookie a proper welcome to the league with two INTs. Meanwhile, the Jags’ QB situation is, predictably, a mess. Carolina gets its first win this week. Winner: Panthers

Patriots at Bills

This should be a high-octane battle between two potent offences, Buffalo led by Ryan Fitzpatrick’s big, juicy, Harvard-educated brain, versus the lovely and talented Tom Brady-led Pats. Both teams have shown that they have no difficulty scoring points. Look for the Pats to win, in a shootout. Winner: Patriots

Ravens at Rams

Look for Baltimore to bounce back after a sub-par performance last week. The Rams continue to have depth issues due to injuries. I can’t see St. Louis being able to score much in this one. Ravens win big. Winner: Ravens

Chiefs at Chargers

Matt Cassel: watch out for your ACL! In the previous three weeks, Kansas City has lost three important starters for the season, each with a torn ACL: TE Tony Moeaki, S Eric Berry, and last week, RB Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs are, quite possibly, the worst team in the NFL. The Chargers have their shortcomings, but they should have no difficulty scoring in this one. Winner: Chargers

Jets at Raiders

The Jets have won, but haven’t been impressive. I see real problems with New York’s offence. The Raiders have been good so far, and have shown a willingness to throw the ball downfield. The Raiders will be in tough against New York’s defence, but if they can keep the score close, Darren McFadden will win it for Oakland in the 4th quarter.  Winner: Raiders

Falcons at Buccaneers

This has the makings of a classic trap game for Atlanta. After winning a huge game against visiting Philadelphia (and the returning Michael Vick), it would not be surprising to see a let-down this week similar to what Baltimore experienced last week. It won’t happen, though. The Falcons already have a loss. That, coupled with facing a division rival, will be enough to motivate them. Atlanta won’t fade at the end like Minnesota did last week against the Bucs. Winner: Falcons

Packers at Bears

These teams play extremely tough against each other. The Bears are coming off a difficult loss, and will be looking to bounce back. Green Bay will be looking to get off to a better start than they did last week, when they had to come back to beat Carolina. What this comes down to is that the Packers are simply the better team. Winner: Packers

Cardinals at Seahawks

The Seahawks have the best home-field advantage in the NFL. Unfortunately, that is offset by the fact that they are one of, if not the, worst teams in the NFL. Normally, I would expect Arizona to wilt under the pressure of the crowd noise this week, but they were very competitive last week on the east coast, which is a good sign that they are coming together as a team. I see Kolb and Fitzgerald having a big day against Seattle’s defence. Winner: Cardinals

Steelers at Colts

There are still some question marks surrounding the Steelers. After looking quite overmatched in week 1 against Baltimore, they came back strong in week 2, but against Seattle. Pittsburgh will win this game, but will not silence the critics. Indianapolis could not finish last week, and lost at home to Cleveland. They can expect no mercy from the visiting Steelers. Winner: Steelers

Monday Night

‘skins at Cowboys

Washington squeaked out a victory at home last week against Arizona, while the Cowboys came back from 10 down in the 4th quarter to beat the 49ers in San Francisco. If Tony Romo plays, the Cowboys must find a way to protect him and his injured ribs, and the running game must step up. DeMarcus Ware makes life miserable for Rex Grossman, and Dallas pulls out the victory. Winner: Cowboys

Last week’s picks: 10-6

My Week 1 picks were a real “Afternoon Delight.” In other words, during the early games, I got screwed pretty good. After getting off to a good start by correctly picking the Packers in Thursday’s opener, I proceeded to go 3-5 on the early Sunday games. Thankfully, a strong 6-1 finish on the late Sunday and Monday night games brought me back to respectability. All in all, not bad for my first try at this, if I do say so myself (and I’ll have to for now, since nobody commented).  To be honest, I was afraid I might completely tank in week 1, because it’s hard to know just how well a team will play until you’ve actually seen them in action. Case in point: I never would have foreseen the Chiefs’ disastrous 34-point drubbing at home at the hands of the Bills. I’d like to think that, like an NFL team, I’ll get better at this as the season progresses, but nothing is ever certain. Any team can beat any other team at any time.

Here are my week 2 picks:

Browns at Colts

In week 1, the Colts, playing without Peyton Manning for the first time in 13 years, were beaten pretty handily by the Texans. This week, they host the Browns, a team that a lot of people were high on before the season started. I don’t think that the Colts are good enough to turn things around and make a run at the playoffs, but they should be good enough and hopefully will play with enough pride this week to squeak out a home win against the Browns, who showed last week that they may not be quite as good as advertised. Because this week’s game is indoors, Cleveland RB Peyton Hillis will have to worry about the possibility of being injured by something falling from the stadium roof. Good luck, Peyton; you stay healthy. Winner: Colts

Bears at Saints

Chicago’s defence looked spectacular in beating Atlanta last week, and their offence performed well also. The Saints defence looked disorganized, but I suspect that we’ll be saying that about a lot of teams this season after they play Green Bay. I think that the Saints will win this one, because they were able to put together 5 scoring drives (3 TDs, 2 FGs) against a very good Packers defence last week, and because I think their defence will make some adjustments in order to get pressure on Jay Cutler. Winner: Saints

Packers at Panthers

Panthers’ rookie QB Cam Newton looked spectacular in his debut last week, breaking the rookie record for passing yards in a first game by throwing for over 400 yards. Unfortunately for Newton, he can’t play against Arizona’s defence every week. This week, he’s in for a rude awakening, courtesy of Green Bay’s excellent pass rush and secondary. The Packers should win big this week, led by an offence that looked to be in mid-season form in its season opener. Winner: Packers

Raiders at Bills

The Raiders looked like a team that will grind it out this year with a solid running game and stout defence. The Bills stunned the Chiefs at Arrowhead in week 1, and looked good doing so, especially QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Oakland travelling across the country after a late Monday night game, look for the Bills to hold off the Raiders this week and win a close one at home. Winner: Bills

Jaguars at Jets

The Jags won in unspectacular fashion against a Titans team that played poorly. This week, they travel to New York to face a Jets team that was lucky to win its opener against Dallas. The Jets will be looking to put forth a much better effort this week. Look for New York to load up to stop Maurice Jones-Drew, while the secondary makes life miserable for Luke McCown. Winner: Jets

Ravens at Titans

Chris Johnson should be more involved in Tennessee’s offence this week, but it won’t be nearly enough. The Ravens looked spectacular in all phases of the game last week as they dismantled Pittsburgh. If the Titans fall behind early, Matt Hasselbeck will be in for a nightmarish afternoon against the Ravens’ defence. Winner: Ravens

Cardinals at ‘skins

This is a tough one. Washington looked good last week, and Rex Grossman played well, but against an injury-depleted Giants team. Arizona won, but their defence, particularly the secondary, looked awful against Carolina. Washington is at home, and the Cards are notoriously bad when playing on the road against east-coast teams. It’ll be Washington in a squeaker. Winner: ‘skins

Chiefs at Lions

I’m still not sold on the Lions. They beat Tampa Bay last week, but I don’t think the Bucs are very good. Everyone seems to be talking about what a great connection Matt Stafford has with Calvin Johnson, but what I see is a great WR making an erratic QB look good with spectacular catches. That being said, the Lions should be able to handle the Chiefs easily this week. Kansas City looked awful, disorganized, and unprepared during their week 1 shellacking by Buffalo. Also, they lost their best defensive player, Safety Eric Berry, for the year with a torn ACL. Matt Cassel needs to step up and start making plays in the passing game to open up some running lanes, but I don’t think he’s up to it. The Lions’ defence will shut down the Chiefs. Winner: Lions

Buccaneers at Vikings

When I saw Donovan McNabb’s stats in last week’s game, I thought it was a misprint: 7 for 15, 39 yards. He has to bounce back strong this week in Minnesota’s home-opener, or panic will quickly set in throughout The Land of 10,000 Lakes. I think that with Adrian Peterson’s running, McNabb will do just enough to win against the Bucs. Winner: Vikings

Seahawks at Steelers

I feel really bad for the Seahawks, and especially for Tavaris Jackson this week. They have the extreme misfortune of travelling to Pittsburgh to play a Steelers team that should be, oh, shall we say, a wee bit agitated. The Steelers were outplayed and beaten badly by division-rival Baltimore last week, and have had to endure a week of being called old by many in the media. Poor Seattle is bad enough; I shudder to think what will happen to them this week against a fired-up Steelers team. Winner: Steelers

Cowboys at 49ers

The Cowboys looked pretty good last week, at least for three quarters. Their defence played better than expected, and only faltered toward the end of the game due to injuries and exhaustion. Tony Romo played very well in his return to action after last season’s injury, before morphing into a spastic, bumbling, nincompoop, like he always seems to do when the game is on the line. The 49ers eked out a win against a terrible Seattle team. It won’t be that easy for them against Dallas this week. Winner: Cowboys

Bengals at Broncos

Apologies all around, to the Bengals and their fans; they played well against the Browns last week. Rookie QB Andy Dalton gave a decent effort in his pro debut, and gave Bengals fans lots to hope for in the future, before leaving with an injury and being replaced by Bruce Gradkowski. The running game, led by Cedric Benson, looks like it’s ready to keep Cincinnati in some games. The Broncos are a team in turmoil. They have a rash of injuries, including some key ones on an already suspect defence. Meanwhile, their fans are erecting billboards in Denver calling for coach John Fox to replace Kyle Orton with Tim Tebow. I see the Bengals’ running game taking over this game, and Cincinnati running its record to 2-0 with a tough road victory. Winner: Bengals

Texans at Dolphins

I want to believe. I do. I really do. I’ll admit that Chad Henne looked very good in the Monday night game against New England. I’ll have to see more before I buy into it, though. I’d love to pick Miami this week, but I just can’t do it. Their defence got torched by the Pats on Monday. Now, Matt Schaub is no Tom Brady, but Houston has a potent passing attack, and an excellent running game as well. Also, I think that the Texans’ pass rush is a bit better that New England’s, and they will be more likely to pressure Henne into making mistakes. Miami’s running game is not nearly as good as it has been in recent years; Reggie Bush is not the feature back this team needs. Home field has not been much of an advantage for Miami of late. I don’t like how the current ownership seems to be more interested in cultivating a celebrity culture around the team than it is about winning. The Texans will continue their march towards the playoffs, while the Dolphins will fall to 0-2, just before a brutal stretch of the schedule. Sigh. It looks like another long year. Winner: Texans

Chargers at Patriots

Look for loads of points in this one. New England scores more, Brady slips on a pair of Uggs, tosses his hair, and walks off into the sunset. Winner: Patriots

Eagles at Falcons

Atlanta was beaten pretty convincingly by Chicago last week. They’re expected to bounce back this week, but it sounds like collective wishful thinking by members of the media, many of whom made the Falcons their preseason Super Bowl pick. The Eagles are not a good match up for the Falcons right now. Atlanta is thin on the pass rush, due to injuries, and they’ll need to pressure Michael Vick if they are to have any hope. I expect Vick to be anxious in his first trip back to Atlanta as a starter, but if he is allowed to settle in and get comfortable, the Falcons’ defence will be in for a long day. Look for Philadelphia to key on stopping Michael Turner, leaving Matt Ryan to try and make plays against the Eagles’ dangerous secondary. Winner: Eagles

Monday Night

Rams at Giants

The Giants began the season decimated by injuries, and looked bad against Washington in week 1. The Rams began the season with promise, and had a disastrous outing against the Eagles, losing a number of key players to injuries. The Giants are playing at home this week, and have had more time to adjust. The Rams will need more time to figure things out. Winner: Giants

Maybe I should just quit now while I’m ahead.

 For those of you who are not friends with me on facebook, I previewed this column on Thursday by picking the Packers to beat the Saints (really). So, I’m officially 1-0 on my picks this year. Perfecto. While we’re talking about predictions, here’s one for you: getting the first one right will probably be the highlight of my year, picks-wise.

Before I get to the picks, I’m going to give a bit of advice. If you are like me, and like to make the games more interesting with a bit of legal gambling (i.e.: ProLine), don’t be afraid to pick some upsets this weekend. As much as the experts like to make it seem like they know exactly what they are talking about, the reality is that until the teams start playing, nobody really knows what will happen. There are always some surprising upsets during the first week, and they usually pay good odds. There’s money to be made out there folks; good luck!

Now, on to my picks:

Bengals at Browns

The Bengals are missing several key players from last year’s team. However, last year’s team went 4-12, so I can’t be sure that that’s not a good thing. They’ll be starting a rookie QB, Andy Dalton, against a Browns team that a lot of people are saying will be improved this year. Cleveland should win this game easily. I’ll be monitoring this game closely, but only to see if some horrible misfortune befalls Madden cover-boy Peyton Hillis. Winner: Browns

Lions at Buccaneers

Everyone seems to be jumping on the Lions’ bandwagon this year. I’m a bit sceptical. Yes, I think that they will be improved this year, but I think that all of this attention will make them overconfident. A young, talented Bucs team will humble them this Sunday. The mobility of Bucs QB Josh Freeman should be just enough to negate the Detroit’s pass rush, allowing Freeman to make key completions against Detroit’s suspect secondary. Winner: Buccaneers

Bills at Chiefs

I was close to calling this an upset win for the Bills. I think that they’ll be able to do enough to keep it close. It’s just so hard for road teams to win at Arrowhead Stadium, and the Chiefs have a very strong running attack. Winner: Chiefs

Falcons at Bears

I was leaning towards the Bears in this one, but I don’t trust their offensive line to able to protect Jay Cutler from Atlanta’s very good pass rush. Also, Marion Barber is out, leaving Matt Forte to shoulder most of the running load for the Bears. Atlanta’s offence will be much better with Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez all returning from last year’s team, plus heralded rookie WR Julio Jones. Winner: Falcons

Titans at Jaguars

The Jags are a team in turmoil, having released David Garrard just days before the start of the season. The Titans will load up to stop Maurice Jones-Drew, and force Luke McCown to beat them. He won’t. New Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck will be able to make enough plays, and Chris Johnson will have a better day than Jones-Drew. Winner: Titans

Eagles at Rams

This game could be a close one. Although the Eagles have a lot of speed and talent on offence, their offensive line is suspect, and St. Louis has a very good pass rush. I think that Philadelphia’s defence will be the deciding factor in a low-scoring game. The Eagles’ secondary should have little trouble in coverage, which will allow them to key on stopping the run. I can’t see the Rams being able to score many points in this one. Winner: Eagles

Colts at Texans

Yeah, I know, one guy doesn’t make a team. However, we’re not talking about just any guy now, are we? I would have given the Texans a good shot to win this game even if Peyton Manning was going to play. The only thing that can beat the Texans in this game is themselves. They have a potent offence, and the defence should be vastly improved over last year’s unit. The Colts are going to be looking to prove that they can win without Manning, so Houston has to stay focused. The game, and the division, is theirs for the taking. Winner: Texans

Steelers at Ravens

This is the game I’ll be watching on Sunday afternoon. I wouldn’t miss a Steelers-Ravens game. The two teams are division rivals. They hate each other. The games are always close and hard fought. I’m looking forward to seeing if the additions that Baltimore made on offense and defence will be enough to push them past Pittsburgh. I have a hunch that they will. Winner: Ravens

Vikings at Chargers

If Donovan McNabb gets off to a fast start, which I expect he will, the Vikings should have a pretty potent offence. The Chargers have a lot of offensive firepower as well. I see San Diego winning in a high-scoring contest. Winner: Chargers

Seahawks at 49ers

Here are two teams that I expect very little from this year. Starting QBs Tavaris Jackson and Alex Smith won’t set too many hearts aflutter with their less-than-stellar play. San Fran will win a sloppy game, because they are a little better on defence than Seattle. Winner: 49ers

Giants at ‘skins

All I’ve heard about the Giants recently has to do with injuries. I don’t think any team has as many key players hurt.  On the other hand, I expect Washington to be terrible. This might be the toughest of all the games for me to pick. I’m going with the Giants, because I think that their running game, featuring Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, will be able to do enough the eke out a victory for New York. Winner: Giants

Panthers at Cardinals

This is a good game to start Kevin Kolb’s tenure with Arizona. Carolina isn’t very good, so this game will give Kolb some valuable in-game experience running the offence and building a rapport with Larry Fitzgerald and the rest of his receivers. Look for TE Todd Heap to pay immediate dividends for the Cards as Kolb’s security blanket in the passing game.  Winner: Cardinals

Cowboys at Jets

This one will come down to how well the Cowboys’ offensive line can protect Tony Romo. The Cowboys will be anxious to erase the disappointment of last season, and being on the road may actually help take some of the pressure off. There’s lots of pressure on the Jets, after two straight trips to the AFC Championship Game. This one will be close, but the Jets’ defence will be the difference. Winner: Jets

 
Monday Night

 Patriots at Dolphins

The Dolphins have a good, young defence and a very good pass rush. They could confound New England, especially since the Pats have some injuries on the offensive line. In the end, though, the Dolphins’ offence will be terrible, again. I want to like Chad Henne. I really do. The problem is, I’ve seen him play. He will never be a winning quarterback in the NFL. Tom Brady will have too many chances not to have a big day. The Pats will score and celebrate, Brady will take off his helmet on the sidelines and toss his hair, and the nation will swoon. Winner: Patriots

Raiders at Broncos

I said in my season preview that the Raiders would not repeat their 6-0 divisional record from last year. They will start with a win, though. Oakland’s potent running attack will dominate, and will give QB Jason Campbell the comfort he needs to make the throws he needs to make.  Winner: Raiders

I’ve been doing NFL picks and predictions for as long as I can remember. Usually it involves sitting down with my friend Page on a lovely summer night (or nights). We drink some beer, and eventually, invariably, inevitably, the subject comes around to football. We shoot the shit about how we think certain teams will do, which team made what trades or drafted which prospect or picked up whichever free-agent. We commiserate about the state of “our” teams and try to be hopeful (he’s a Raiders fan, I root for the Dolphins). It makes for great conversation. I’ve never written anything down, though. I never really saw the point. I’ve always been content to just watch the games, partake in some (legal) gambling, and enjoy the season. Well, that’s about to change. I never got to have any of those conversations this summer, because I was too busy working. However, I have a forum now, and I’m making my predictions public.

 As the beginning of the season fast approaches, every sports columnist has to do a picks article. These guys are serious. They read scouting reports, watch all of the preseason games, and even visit the teams in training camp, among other things. Not me. I read a fair bit, try to follow some of the major transactions, and I have watched a very small amount of preseason football. I’m just an average football fan. But you know what? I bet I do just as well or better than some of the big guys. Hell, I’ve seen some of the so-called professionals make some pretty terrible predictions. It happens every year. That’s the nature of the game, though. These guys spend so much time trying to get their predictions down to some kind of science, but everything goes out the window because there are things that always happen that are just unpredictable.

Want me to tell you what’s going to happen in the NFL this year? Let me gaze into my crystal ball. I see that an important player or players will suffer an injury and miss some playing time. I see that an important free-agent signee will turn out to be an absolute bust. I see a can’t-miss rookie prospect who fails to live up to expectations. I see a player who everyone thought was washed-up experiencing a comeback. I see an unheralded player coming out of nowhere to have a breakthrough year. Am I psychic? No. This stuff happens every year.

So, why bother? For fun, that’s why.

I’m going to keep it pretty simple. I’ll do one division at a time. I’ll pick the order in which the teams will finish, followed by an explanation as to why I made my picks. I’ll also pick which teams I think will qualify for the wild-card playoff spots for each conference. I am not going to try to predict exact win-loss records; they’re overrated, and I’d probably get the math screwed up anyway.

Feel free to give me some feedback on my picks. Tell me what you thought I got right. Tell me I’m full of shit. Tell me YOUR picks. Whatever you do, enjoy. I know I’m going to.

NFC

East

 Eagles
Cowboys
Giants
'Skins

The Philadelphia organization is pinning its hopes to Michael Vick. Big mistake. They should have kept Kevin Kolb. Vick is explosive, a real game-changer. He is not now, nor has he ever been, reliable. He is not a great passer. The ironic thing about him is what makes him so valuable, his speed and athleticism, is the same thing that guarantees that he gets hurt every year. So, why pick the Eagles? Their defence will be enough to win this weak division, no matter what the offence does. Their secondary, featuring newly acquired Nasty Arugula (damn AutoCorrect), as well as their pass rush, will make it difficult for teams to pass against the Eagles.

As for the rest of the division, well, I don’t see a lot of hope. A lot of people are predicting that the Cowboys will have a terrible year, but I think that they will be able to do enough on offence to beat the Giants for second place. The Giants are in for a long year, what with all of the injuries they’ve had recently. I still don’t think the Eli Manning is an upper-echelon QB because he isn’t accurate enough and throws too many INTs, but the Giants will still finish ahead of the horrible ‘Skins. Washington had the difficult task of choosing between Rex Grossman and John Beck as their starting QB; that, to me, sums up what kind of year it will be for them.

North

Packers
Bears
Lions
Vikings

The Packers are the class of this division, and should win easily. The offence will score a ton of points, and their defence is solid. After Green Bay, things get a bit tricky. Detroit seems to be the trendy pick this year, with many predicting a second-place finish as well as a playoff spot. I don’t see it. I still haven’t seen enough from Lions’ QB Matt Stafford to call Detroit a playoff team. Also, even though they have a lot of talent in their defensive front, their best player, Ndamukong Suh, is one or two more body-slams away from getting suspended. Also, I think their secondary is suspect. Chicago should still be good enough to stay ahead of the Lions. Their defence will keep them in games, and they have just enough talent on offence, provided Jay Cutler doesn’t break a nail and retire in the middle of a game. And what’s with everyone writing off the Vikings? They still have Adrian Peterson, plus Donovan McNabb, so they should be able to score often enough to be in a lot of games. If either Detroit or Chicago falters at all, I would not be surprised to see the Vikes move up. It depends on how much McNabb has left.

South

Saints
Falcons
Buccaneers
Panthers

The biggest improvement the Saints made in the offseason was getting rid of Reggie Bush. The offence, already potent, will be much more focused without him. The Saints are well-coached, are stacked at QB and WR, and have a solid defence. The Falcons broke out last year with 13 wins, then got destroyed in the playoffs, at home, by Green Bay. They will be good again this year, but not 13-wins good. Their offence could stumble, what with Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner being a year older, and their defence is good, but not great. Tampa Bay is a young team with a promising QB in Josh Freeman, but they beat a lot of bad teams last year, but mostly got beaten by the good ones. The Bucs have a bright future, but it’s not their time yet. Carolina will suck. They lost key players in the offseason, made no significant improvements, and have a rookie, Cam Newton, starting at QB. They are serious contenders for the top pick in next year’s draft. It’s hard to imagine a worse team.

West

Cardinals
Rams
Seahawks
49ers

This will be the worst division in the league again this year, but some team will win it and most likely end up hosting a playoff game against a team with a better record. (Best illustration of my point about records meaning nothing: the Seahawks finishing 7-9 last year, then beating the 11-5 Saints in the playoffs.) Everyone seems to be handing this one to the Rams. A lot of the same people are picking the Cards to finish in 3rd or even 4th place. Those people are seriously undervaluing the acquisition of Kevin Kolb. No matter what you say about his lack of experience, he is a major upgrade over Arizona’s QBs from last season. The proof: Larry Fitzgerald just signed a long-term contract extension. Fitzgerald was miserable last year, but even with the crappy QBs that started for the Cards, he still put up numbers that most WRs would consider a career year. I envision a much more potent Cards offence this year, with Fitzgerald taking over games at times, or teams overcompensating in matching up with him, thereby opening up more options for Kolb in the passing game, as well as creating holes for the running attack. The Rams have a good young QB in Sam Bradford, but he has a ways to go before he proves he’s a winner. I think that the Rams are thin in their receiving corps, and Steven Jackson, though talented and tough, has a lot of miles on him, and might not have enough in the tank to carry too heavy a load on offence. Despite some favourable forecasts, I don’t think the Seahawks have a shot. Tavaris Jackson is not good enough to lead this team to first place. Seattle will struggle to score enough points to be competitive. As for the 49ers, I don’t know what to say. They fired coach Mike Singletary, which should improve their fortunes, but I honestly don’t know how good they will be. Perhaps QB Alex Smith will flourish under new coach Jim Harbaugh. As for their defence, they have the best LB in football, Patrick Willis, so there’s that, I guess. I wouldn’t be surprised if San Fran won 3 games all season, nor would I be surprised if they ended up 3rd or even 2nd in the division. They’re a real question mark for me.

To finish up with the NFC, the Falcons will make the playoffs easily as a wild-card, and squeaking in with the final playoff spot will be... the Cowboys. This, or course, will lead to one of my favourite things about the NFL... watching the Cowboys lose in the playoffs.

All right, on to the AFC:

AFC

East
Patriots
Jets
Dolphins
Bills

The Pats will score lots of points, there’s little doubt. The question is whether their defence will be any good. I think they will be as good as they need to be. How well they develop throughout the year will determine whether the Pats will end their playoff drought. At any rate, they will win enough games to win this division, and Tom Brady will continue to be an absolute dreamboat. As for the Jets, I think they’ve peaked already. Their best chance was last year, but Darrelle Revis selfishly held out for a better contract, which kept him out of training camp, which I believe led to his getting injured. Their defence is a year older now, and will decline. Sure, they’ll still be good, but not good enough to carry the Jets to a 3rd consecutive AFC Championship Game. QB Mark Sanchez is not good enough to carry the team, and their running game will not be able to pick up the slack. LaDainian Tomlinson had a good year last year, but I expect a steep drop-off in his production this year. As for the Dolphins, well, an offence led by Chad Henne and Reggie Bush doesn’t give me a lot of hope. How bad is Henne? I actually got excited when rumours circulated early in training camp that the Dolphins were trying to swing a deal for Kyle Orton. Miami’s defence will be the only thing that will keep them out of last place. As for the Bills, I’ve heard that they’ve made some improvements, but I don’t expect much. All I can think to say about them is that they lost Lee Evans, and any defence in which Shawne Merriman figures prominently is in for a disappointing year.

North

Ravens
Steelers
Browns
Bengals

This is Baltimore’s year. The defence is still one of the top units in the league, and the offence made some key improvements in the offseason. Having Lee Evans and Anquan Boldin line up at WR will really open things up for Joe Flacco and for the running game. I predict first place, and a deep playoff run for the Ravens this year. The Steelers will not be able to keep pace. Their running game will not be good, and good defences will be able to shut down their pass-heavy offence. Key players James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are a year older and coming off injuries. Expect one or both of them to miss time this year. Pittsburgh’s best hope to win the division is if the league starts awarding bonus points for dirty hits. I can’t say too much about the Browns. Their best player is Josh Cribbs. Has a team ever done well when its best player plays on special teams? As for their key offensive player, Peyton Hillis, I expect him to tear his ACL, rupture his patellar tendon, sever his Achilles, and have his left arm torn off when he is attacked by a polar bear during a visit to the Cleveland Metroparks Zoo (But hey, congratulations on landing that “Madden” cover). Cincinnati should be competitive. They will still have depth at the WR position, provided that veteran Chad Ocho... what? He’s gone? Owens too? Oh. Well, now that the distraction of having two prima-donna WRs has been eliminated, QB Carson Palm... really? Where’d he go? Oh. Ummm... <ahem>... Cincinnati’s defence should be able to keep them competitive. Their secondary, led by former first-round pick Jonathan Jose... oh come on! Really? <sigh> So, good luck with that number one draft choice next year, Bengals. I hope you get a good player. (Sorry, for getting your hopes up, Carolina.)

South

Texans
Colts
Titans
Jaguars

I thought it was going to be difficult to pick a winner here, but Peyton Manning’s neck helped me significantly. This division is Houston’s for the taking, now. The Texans needed to improve on defence, especially against the pass. All throughout the offseason, I heard that the one move that the Texans HAD to make was acquiring free-agent CB Natty Awesomemon (damn Jamaican AutoCorrect). Instead, they picked up Jonathan Joseph, which is still a major upgrade for them. I’ll be interested to see how the defence improves under new coordinator Wade Phillips, who was a terrible head coach, but whose defences always do well. I’m excited to see the results of Phillips’s attempt to convert Mario Williams from DE to OLB. Williams is a talented, athletic player; if Phillips can turn him into Houston’s own DeMarcus Ware, then the Texans’ defence could be scary-good.

What of the Colts? They should be still good enough for 2nd place, but they can’t hope to win without Manning. Colts’ fans must be going nuts right now. Every day, the news seems to get worse. Missing the first game... missing several games... another surgery... missing the whole season:  Nobody knows what the hell’s going on with him. If he misses a significant amount of time, I wouldn’t even be surprised to see the Titans sneak into 2nd place. Depending, of course, on how bad the Titans are this year. It will be interesting to see how well they perform with all the changes from last year. Gone is Jeff Fisher, who was with the franchise since the Earl Campbell days. Hopefully, their young, talented offence will come to life, with the departure of QB Kerry Collins, and under the guidance of the much-younger Matt Hasselbeck.  As for the Jags, when I started writing this preview, David Garrard was still the starting QB for the Jags. Now he’s unemployed, and Luke McCown is the starter. Poor Maurice Jones-Drew is in for a rough year. Fortunately for Jacksonville, no one’s watching.

West

Chargers
Chiefs
Raiders
Broncos

The Chargers have loads of talent on offence, and will score a lot of points. That should be enough to win this division. It’s amazing that they didn’t win last year. The Chargers were extremely unlucky last year. That couldn’t possibly happen again, could it? The Chiefs should be better than they are. This is the year that Matt Cassel has to step up. The running game is solid. There should be opportunities for the passing game to excel. If it fails to do so, Cassel’s days in KC could be numbered. I’ve heard a lot of rumblings about the Raiders making some serious noise this year. One national columnist even picked them to go 11-5 and win the division. I can’t see it. The Raiders overachieved last year, playing hard for popular head coach Tom Cable, but 137-year-old owner Al Davis fired Cable. Also, the Raiders lost their best player, CB Nnamdi Asomugha (Nailed it! In your face, AutoCorrect!). Not having a shut-down corner who can cut the field in half will be a huge detriment to the defence. The Raiders went 6-0 in their division last year. That won’t happen again.  I haven’t heard much positive talk about of Denver in the offseason. Most reports seem to indicate that they are terrible. All I know is that they have a decent QB and decent receivers. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

The Jets and the Steelers will take the wild-card spots, setting up some great playoff matchups; Steelers-Ravens, Ravens-Pats, Pats-Steelers, or Jets-Pats would all be classics. I’m getting ahead of myself, though. I have a long time before I need to worry about playoff picks. I’ve waited too long for the start of the season; there’s no sense wishing it away.

Well, that’s it. My first-ever NFL Preview. Feedback is welcome. Thanks for reading.