To begin this week, let’s cast our memories back a few seasons.

A team, bolstered by a 6-0 record against one mediocre and two awful divisional opponents, finished 9-7, easily won their division, qualified for the playoffs over several teams with equal or better records, and secured a home playoff game in the first round. I remember there was some discussion about whether this team “deserved” to be in the playoffs, hosting an 11-5 team to boot. The playoff seeding system needed to be overhauled to keep teams like this out and reward better teams, obviously. It was an absolute travesty. Pity flowed freely for poor teams like the 11-5 New England Patriots who were shut out of the postseason. Of course, this same team beat the 11-5 Atlanta Falcons in the first round, went all the way to the Super Bowl, and came within seconds of becoming champs. Also, they were as exciting as hell.

I mean, does anyone remember the 2009 Arizona Cardinals, featuring Kurt Warner and the nigh unstoppable Larry Fitzgerald? I know I do.

I only bring this up because here we are again, with one week left before the playoffs, and not much has changed. The Cardinals could win this week, finishing at 11-5, and still miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, a 10-6 or 9-7 team will win the NFC East, and a 9-7 or 8-7-1 team will win the NFC North. There’s been a lot of talk this week about the poor Cards, and how unfair the playoff seeding system is. It’s a very common narrative that the media loves to trot out to make it seem like they’re doing their due diligence by criticizing the league that they spend most of their time glorifying. With injuries, scheduling quirks, weather anomalies, and other unforeseen circumstances, won-loss records don’t always give an accurate representation of which are the better teams. Don’t believe me? Three years after the Arizona Cardinals became the first 9-7 team to make the Super Bowl, the 9-7 New York Giants, who qualified for the playoffs on the last day of the season, beat the Pats to become Super Bowl champs. I won’t shed too many tears for the teams that don’t make the postseason this year. It’s the NFL; there are always good teams that get left out. If anything, it’s an indicator of the quality of the teams in the league. As a fan of the game, I’m happy about that.

Jaguars at Colts

You have to love the Jags. They demonstrate the pride and quality of the type of player who is good enough to make it all the way to the NFL. They played this season with determination and a will not finish in last place, as many expected. I’m waiting for the early-season Colts to return, the giant-slayers who, over a 4-week period, beat the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos. They looked good against the Chiefs last week, hopefully a sign of things to come. Winner: Colts

Lions at Vikings

This is a “who cares” game. The Vikes go without Adrian Peterson. I love the Lions. They make me look like a friggin’ genius regularly through their ineptitude. I’m of two minds when it comes to Head Coach Jim Schwartz; he should be fired, because he is terrible, but I hope they keep him, because he’s terrible. Tie

Browns at Steelers

Did you know that the 7-8 Steelers still have a shot, albeit slim, at the playoffs? They’ll play hard. Winner: Steelers

Panthers at Falcons

With their huge win over the Saints last week, Carolina has a shot at a division title and a first-round bye. All they have to do is take care of their own business. Winner: Panthers

Washington at Giants

Completely meaningless game. I can’t even guess at any motivation for the players. Note to the Giants’ organization: fire Coughlin at your peril. Tie

Texans at Titans

A Houston loss will secure for them the number one pick in next year’s draft. As they’ve screwed everything else up this season… Winner: Texans

Ravens at Bengals

The Ravens need to win to have a shot at the playoffs. It’s that simple. However, don’t overlook the Bengals’ motivations in this one. Cincy still has a shot at a first-round bye. That aside, I’d be willing to bet that the prospect of ending Baltimore’s season is all the extra motivation that the Bengals need. Winner: Bengals

Jets at Dolphins

I’m sure that the Jets would love nothing more at this point than to play playoff spoilers, but Miami’s pass rush will be enough to snuff that notion. Winner: Dolphins

Buccaneers at Saints

In theory, the Bucs have the chance to knock the Saints out of the playoffs. I expect New Orleans to prevail at home, though. Winner: Saints

Chiefs at Chargers

The Chargers still have an outside shot at the postseason, while the Chiefs’ playoff seeding is set. San Diego is the obvious choice here. Funny thing about the NFL though: even second-stringers don’t just roll over, and pressure doesn’t always make diamonds. Winner: Chiefs

Rams at Seahawks

Opponents’ defence troubles Seattle, but there’s not much trouble here. Winner: Seahawks

49ers at Cardinals

I thought that the Cards would lose in Seattle last week, based on the fact that Carson Palmer would turn the ball over too many times. I was right about the turnovers, but the Cards’ defence rendered that moot. I don’t like Colin Kaepernick against a really good defence, and I doubt that will change anytime soon. Winner: Cardinals

Broncos at Raiders

Winner: Broncos

Packers at Bears

While I’m testing your memory, do you remember the Packers’ most recent Super Bowl campaign? Aaron Rodgers was forced to sit out a couple of games due to his second concussion of the season, and the Packers needed to win their final two games of the season just to qualify as the 6th seed. Their Week 17 opponent that year: Da’ Bears. For this game, Rodgers is making his first appearance since he suffered a broken clavicle in Week 9. Fortunately for Rodgers, the Packers’ run game should be enough to secure a victory here. Winner: Packers

Bills at Patriots

The Pats are properly motivated here, with a first-round bye at stake. Winner: Patriots















Eagles at Cowboys

I’d have picked the Eagles anyway, with or without Romo, because of the absence of Sean Lee. Winner: Eagles

Stay tuned for my playoff preview later this week.

Sorry, folks. No column this week. I simply could not find the time.

A real football fan enjoys the game, and doesn’t need a lot of hype to get excited. For the casual fan, the media always has an angle. For a lot of games, if you’ve been watching football long enough, you can almost predict what the story will be before the hype even begins.

Take Peyton Manning for example. If his team is playing, and the forecast calls for cold weather, what are you going to hear about? If you said, “Peyton Manning can’t win in the cold,” or something like that, then you’ve been paying attention. Is it true? I don’t know. You can bet, however, that whoever is doing the talking will have statistics, those double-agents that lie for both sides, to back them up.

Me, I go by what I see. Streaks and ancient history don’t mean a lot to me. I stick with what I know, and, when it comes to Peyton Manning and cold weather, I only know two things.

The first has to do with last season’s AFC Divisional Playoff Game, played between the Broncos and Ravens in frigid conditions at Mile High Stadium. As the game wore on, Manning looked progressively worse. His passes seemed to lack the zip he had displayed throughout the season. Toward the end of the 4th quarter, the Broncos passed up an opportunity to drive to score the winning points in regulation, choosing instead to take their chances in overtime. During the coin toss before the extra session, Manning looked visibly miserable. Granted, this was Manning’s 17th game of a season in which he came back after multiple neck surgeries and a year away from the game. Manning has been phenomenal this season, and thus far has shown no signs of slowing down.

The other thing I know is something that I only discovered this week, and it is significant. Whatever you or I or the media think about the cold weather issue ultimately means nothing. However, what Manning thinks is another matter, and now I know that it bothers him. Listen to this short clip (specifically, from 0:38 to 1:10) from an interview with Manning after his Broncos whipped the Titans 51-28. When the subject is broached, he immediately becomes flustered and shows a bit of an edge. I was surprised by this. I’m used to Peyton the QB machine, the computer in cleats. As much as he might want people to believe that it doesn’t bother him, as much as he wants to believe it himself, his instinctive, unguarded reaction is very telling.

Will this become an issue in the playoffs? Manning has performed extremely well in the cold at Mile High this season. However, the Broncos’ upset loss to the Chargers this past Thursday handed control of the top AFC seed race to the New England Patriots. Foxborough, especially in the playoffs, is a whole different kind of cold for Manning. It’s in his head. I know it now.

So, what are the other stories in Week 15? Here’s my take. No hype required.

 

Texans at Colts

Can the Colts regain the early-season form that had them looking like world-beaters, before injuries brought them crashing down, in time for the playoffs? Lately, there seems like no better cure for a team’s woes than to play the Texans. Winner: Colts

49ers at Buccaneers

Can the 49ers stave off the hard-charging Cardinals and make it back to the playoffs? Tampa will be a tough test, especially for a San Francisco team travelling clear across the country. The ‘niners need to keep their edge over Arizona, lest their Week 17 face off become a winner-take-all affair. Winner: 49ers

Seahawks at Giants

Will we be seeing this Seahawks team in New Jersey again in February? Seattle has the inside track for the top seed in the NFC, and are extremely tough to beat at home. The disappointing Giants are playing out the string. Winner: Seahawks

Eagles at Vikings

Are the Eagles poised to take the NFC East title? Philly currently holds a one game lead over Dallas. The Vikings may be without Adrian Peterson this week. Either way, I don’t think it matters. Winner: Eagles

Bills at Jaguars

If they decided not to play this game at all, would it matter? I mean, both teams are 4-9. They could simulate it on a video game, or play board games or something. It would save wear and tear on the players’ bodies. Haven’t there been enough injuries this season? Tie

Bears at Browns

Can Jay Cutler lead Chicago to a division crown? Somehow (OK, the Lions helped a lot) the Bears are still in the hunt for the NFC North title. They’ll be facing a Browns team coming off a “What just happened?” loss to New England. Winner: Bears

Patriots at Dolphins

Can Miami improve its playoff chances while taking a huge Dolphin-crap on the gift the Chargers handed the Pats by beating the Broncos? New England has been in this position before; win out, and the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxborough. Winner: Patriots

Washington at Falcons

How will Washington react to the RGIII shutdown? Really, Kirk Cousins starting at QB is the only thing keeping this game from being relegated to the same status as the Bills/Jags clash. I’m going with the new blood. Winner: Washington

Chiefs at Raiders

Can the Chiefs stay healthy enough for a good run at the playoffs? Realistically, KC has no chance to catch Denver for the division lead, as the Broncs finish their season against Houston and Oakland. I still say that, healthy, this Chiefs team is a nightmare matchup for anyone in the playoffs, particularly with its top pass rushers in top form. Winner: Chiefs

Jets at Panthers

How will the Panthers bounce back after a tough loss to the Saints? Carolina will be just fine, thanks. As for Geno Smith, well, I envision a slew of turnovers, leading to an ugly loss. Winner: Panthers

Cardinals at Titans

Can the surging Cardinals keep pace with the 49ers? All Arizona can do at this point is handle their own business and hope for some help from one of San Fran’s opponents. Winner: Cardinals

Saints at Rams

Can the Saints make the Super Bowl without winning the NFC number one seed? Though the Saints are iffy on the road, this game’s in a dome, against an offence with not nearly as much firepower. Potential playoff destination Seattle will not be nearly as accommodating. Winner: Saints

Packers at Cowboys

Can the Cowboys catch Philadelphia in the NFC East Race? Is there any point to Aaron Rodgers playing again this season? Whichever team loses here is surely out of playoff contention. The Dallas defence will once again be without Sean Lee, so Tony Romo et al will have to shoot it out. I like their chances. Winner: Cowboys

Bengals at Steelers

Has everyone forgotten about the Bengals, and do they prefer it that way? Cincy seems to be peaking again at just the right time. How sweet would it be to drive the final (steel) nail into the coffin of Pittsburgh’s season? Winner: Bengals

Monday Night

Ravens at Lions

Are the Ravens going to be around to defend their title? If Detroit blows the NFC North, how many Lions will be arrested in the offseason? Ravens in a big, nationally-televised game vs. Lions in a big, nationally-televised game. Never go against your core beliefs. Winner: Ravens (Loser: Lions)

My friend Chad and I were discussing the Fantasy Football potential of some of the wideouts he had the option of starting in Week 14. So, as a sort of introduction, I thought I’d play around with a new feature and see if I could get any of my readers to respond to a poll. Just choose the WR you think will do the best this week, then, if you wish, you can also comment below or tweet to me @GFHowie. Hope to hear from you, and enjoy Week 14.

Colts at Bengals

What’s cooler than being cool? Ice Colt (Go ahead… roll your eyes). Sure, Indy’s been 3-2 since their bye, but their wins were squeakers against the Texans (they of the now 10-game losing streak) and the Titans (x2), and they were hammered by the Rams and Cardinals. The Bengals have been hot and cold, have had to deal with devastating injuries on defence, but appear to have turned a corner. That’s what good teams do. Winner: Bengals

Lions at Eagles

The Eagles are a team on the rise. They seem to have their offence figured out now that Nick Foles has settled in as starting QB. Do I even have to say anything else about the Lions at this point? Winner: Eagles

Raiders at Jets

To say that the Jets have struggled on offence lately would be putting it mildly. Still, the Raiders aren’t what I’d call good, so there’s no way I’m picking them on the road in “Joisy.” Now, if Terrelle Pryor were playing… Winner: Jets

Vikings at Ravens

The Ravens have decided that they’re not quite finished defending their title, and are inching closer to a Wild Card berth. I’m invoking “The Joe Rule” here; Baltimore wins at home. Winner: Ravens

Bills at Buccaneers

Before they ran into a buzzsaw in Carolina last week, the Bucs had been playing some pretty good football. The Bills haven’t been, having most recently blown one to the Falcons in their annual “Home Game in Hogtown.” Winner: Buccaneers

Browns at Patriots

So, the Browns could not overcome Brandon Weeden last week, so it’s back to the bench for him, as Jason Campbell steps behind centre again. No danger of the Pats losing focus here; with only four weeks to play, they are in prime position for a top 2 seed and its concomitant first round bye. Winner: Patriots

Chiefs at Washington

Tough stretch for the once 9-0 Chiefs, losers of three straight. They experienced some key losses on defence due to injury, and their weakened pass rush resulted in sound thrashings at the hands of Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. A trip to Washington to face Sir Robert Griffin the Third, Duke of (in a) Funk (anyone get that reference?) should be just the thing to stop that pesky losing skid. Winner: Chiefs

Dolphins at Steelers

Let’s see what we have in this mish-mash:  two teams with faint (and fainter) playoff hopes; Dolphins team that’s competitive every week; Steelers team that has gotten better after a slow start; game in Pittsburgh. The deciding factor for me is an odd one: the “Everyone hates us because our coach cheated,” factor. Sometimes, issues like this cause major distractions, other times, they bind teams together. Mike Tomlin’s players like him, I think. Winner: Steelers

Falcons at Packers

Packers’ hopes are fading fast. Personally, I kind of hope they shut Aaron Rodgers down for the season now. Even with him, I don’t believe that Green Bay is good enough to go very far in the playoffs. If they can’t beat the Falcons, even without Rodgers, the Pack doesn’t deserve to be there anyway. Winner: Packers

Titans at Broncos

I still say this Broncos team can be had. The Colts and the Pats proved it. They’re a bit out of Tennesee’s league, though. Winner: Broncos

Rams at Cardinals

The Cards’ defence, and their starting QB’s un-CarsonPalmery play of late, makes Arizona a tough match for anyone right now. Winner: Cardinals

Giants at Chargers

Oh Tom Coughlin, you seductive bastard. You think you can win a few games, bat your eyes at me, and make me think your Giants can beat the Chargers on the road. What, is that cologne I smell? Forget it. I can’t be had that easily, even if I want to be. Winner: Chargers

Seahawks at 49ers

Seattle has been beating up on weaklings lately, and yes, that includes New Orleans and their overrated defence (coached by the overrated Rob Ryan). The 49ers defence is a serious step-up in opposition. That, plus the return of San Fran WR Michael Crabtree, be it as difference-maker or decoy, will swing this close contest. Winner: 49ers

Panthers at Saints

Big test for Carolina this week. I like the matchup. They have the tools and the talent. If they’re prepared and focused, they can beat the Saints easily. Winner: Panthers

Monday Night

Cowboys at Bears

I see no reason why Romo and Co. can’t light up this Bears’ defence. LB Sean Lee, arguably the Cowboys’ most important player, returns to the lineup. That’s the game in a nutshell, folks. Winner: Cowboys

Geez! What a season.

By Week 13, you’d expect things to be a bit clearer, as the wheat separates itself from the chaff. However, in this campaign, which at times has seemed to be more about surviving than winning, we have the following:

• Several teams in the AFC with 5-6 records vying for the final playoff spot, with teams at 4-7 (and one at 5-7) still hanging on.
• Preseason favourite Houston on a 9-game losing streak (with the 8-3 Pats coming to town), and tied for last place in the conference with Jacksonville.
• Brandon “Him Again?” Weeden making his third appearance at the top of the Browns’ QB depth chart, after injuries felled the last two guys who replaced him for sucking.
• The Panthers on a 7-game winning streak, and challenging for a division crown and a top-two seed in the NFC.
• Aaron Rodgers watching from the sidelines while his Packers haven’t won in a month.
• The 49ers fighting for their playoff lives instead of for first place.
• The Lions leading their division.
• The Falcons, losers of 5 straight, with the worst record in the NFC.
  

We’re getting closer to the finish. Something’s got to give. Let’s hope it’s not another player’s body. Healthy players make for better football.  It’d be nice to see some teams in the thick of the playoff races get back some of their nicked-up players, just to make things more interesting.

 

Patriots at Texans

Last week, I explained why the Texans playing at home is bad, and picked the Jags to beat them. Don’t expect the Pats to show them any mercy. Winner: Patriots

Bears at Vikings

The Bears’ run defence is so terrible it would make any RB look like an all-star, so it stands to reason that if they commit the necessary personnel to try and stop Adrian Peterson, it won’t take an all-star QB to shred them. Winner: Vikings

Jaguars at Browns

The Browns’ defence should be good enough for the team to survive the visiting Jags, provided, of course, that they can survive their own starting QB, Brandon Weeden. Winner: Browns

Buccaneers at Panthers

The Panthers must be salivating about their game against the Saints next week, but they’d better not get caught looking ahead when they face a game Tampa squad this week, or next week’s game won’t mean nearly as much. Winner: Panthers

Dolphins at Jets

Though I’m iffy about picking the Dolphins on the road, I see their pass rush as the deciding factor, especially against turnover-prone Jets’ QB Geno Smith. Winner: Dolphins

Titans at Colts

Doesn’t it seem like forever ago that the Colts looked like a Super Bowl favourite after kicking the crap out of teams like the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos? They’ve been outscored 108-49 in their past three games, going 1-2 in process. They had better find a way to turn things around again, or they will have a very short playoff run, assuming they make it there. Winner: Colts

Cardinals at Eagles

The Cards have put themselves in the thick of the playoff race by reeling off four straight wins, but I’m not convinced that they can keep that streak going on the road against the Eagles with Nick Foles behind centre. Winner: Eagles

Falcons at (Toronto) Bills

I’ll take a Bills’ team that does a few things right at “home” against a Falcons’ team that can’t do anything right. Winner: Bills

Rams at 49ers

The Rams ran roughshod over the Bears last week, but the ‘niners’ defence is a significant upgrade in opposition. The difference should be a harsh dose of reality. Winner: 49ers

Bengals at Chargers

With their injury-depleted defence and Jekyll and Hyde offence, I have a bad feeling that the Bengals are in for a long day against the mercurial Chargers offence. Winner: Chargers

Broncos at Chiefs

After their game at Mile High two weeks ago, I was eagerly anticipating this quick rematch. However, last week against the Chargers, we discovered that the loss of its two dominant pass rushers, Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, makes the Chiefs defence very ordinary. Houston won’t play this week, and Hali is listed as “Questionable” after practising minimally this week. Ordinary defence won’t cut it against the Broncos. Winner: Broncos

Giants at Washington

Last week, I picked against the Giants and I actually got it right for a change. They should bounce back nicely this week against Washington. Winner: Giants

Monday Night

Saints at Seahawks

This is a huge matchup in terms of playoff ramifications The Saints currently are the number two seed in the NFC at 9-2; the only team ahead of them are these same Seahawks at 10-1. Both teams enjoy a marked home field advantage, making the number one seed of vital importance. So, do I go with the Seahawks at home, or do I envision Drew Brees capitalizing on Seattle’s depleted secondary? I think that the Seahawks will follow the blueprint laid out for them by Bill Belichick and neutralize Saints’ TE Jimmy Graham, perhaps with a heavy dose of CB Richard Sherman. That, plus the Saints playing on the road in a really tough environment should be enough. Winner: Seahawks