Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Me; bye, bye, bye.

The half-dozen or so of you who read my picks may have noticed that I have been silent this week. I didn’t make a pick for the Thursday night game, nor did I even bother to watch. You could hardly blame me, after the officials essentially decided three of the last four prime time games I watched. I’m not sure whether the Giants’ dismantling of the Panthers last Thursday helped or hindered the overall situation, but I sure did appreciate seeing a team take care of business themselves. (In the scenario I imagine, Eli Manning called a team meeting just before kickoff and said something along the lines of, “OK, let’s go out there and destroy these motherf**krs. There is no godd**m way I’m letting those dirty scab rent-a-f**ks f**k me in my motherf**king earhole!) (Whenever I fantasize about Eli Manning, he is generally extremely foul-mouthed. I should probably see someone about this.) Now, I know that the regular officials are back, but they’ve got to get up to speed with the pace of games that matter, without having had the benefit of officiating preseason games or the first three weeks of the season. Plus, they have the extra-added pressure of proving that they matter, that it was all worth it, and that they are not just an improvement over the replacements, but a vast improvement.

At any rate, the NFL owners and their commissioner wilfully put a substandard product on the field, disregarded their fan base, endangered their players, and tarnished the reputation of what was the best professional sports league in North America (at least), then left a group of unqualified scabs to take all the heat. And for what? A few extra bucks in their already overstuffed pockets.

So, I’m not doing any picks this week. I write about football because it enhances my enjoyment of the game, and because some of my friends have told me that they enjoy reading it. I don’t make money from this. Look around my pages, as well as the entire site. Have you noticed that there are no ads? My wife owns the domain, and we are beholding to no one.

I will probably watch some this weekend, to keep an eye on how things go. I can’t give up cold turkey. This is my favourite time of year; football season. Prime time games are out, for now; I’m not sacrificing any more sleep until I’m confident that the product is back up to its usual standards. The NFL has nothing to blame but itself; I have very high expectations, because I am used to high quality. When I am satisfied that the players and coaches are the ones deciding the outcomes of the games, as it should be, then I’ll start making picks again.

Last Week: 7-9

Season Total: 16-16

So, after a weekend which saw huge fourth-quarter comebacks, shocking upsets, week 1 failures coming to life, week 1 successes crashing back to earth, and some really awful officiating which definitely did affect the outcome of several games, I find myself in essentially the same position as 20 of the 32 teams in the NFL; at .500, hoping to improve, and dreading a long season of failure. Compared to last year’s start, I feel a bit let down; kind of like theDetroit Lions, but without all the arrests. Ah well, it’s a young season, and I’m looking to bounce back this week.

Before I get to my picks, I’d like to address some of last week’s action, starting with something that I would best describe as a shocking display of unsportsmanlike behaviour. I’m sure many of you saw the incident in question, or heard about it after the fact, and I think you’ll all agree that it’s a pretty cut-and-dried case of the type of misconduct which has no place in the NFL. Simply put, the two teams involved were lined up for a play, the formation was obvious, and I’m sure most viewers saw it as a foregone conclusion. However, one of the teams had decided to attempt a little trickery in order to try to gain an advantage over its unsuspecting foe. The offending team, in its single-minded pursuit of victory, had no regard for the fact that its opponent, caught unawares, was at a greater risk of incurring injury to its players. I was shocked by the callousness of the play, that a team would place such a premium on winning, at the expense of sportsmanship, in a gentlemanly game like professional football. Of course, in the NFL, winning is what matters most, and because the play worked, not a lot of people saw it the same way I did. As we all witnessed, the Packers’ fake field goal resulted in a TD pass, which put Green Bay up 10-0 on their way to a 23-10 victory over the Chicago Bears. Afterwards, Chicago didn’t even complain about the deception, even going so far as to acknowledge that they were caught “flat-footed” on the play.  If only those ruffians on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ squad had as much class as the Bears, then they would have accepted their defeat at the hands of the New York (football) Giants gracefully, and would not have lowered themselves to the level of attempting to continue to try to win a game which still had time left on the clock and in which they were still within one score of tying and sending into overtime. Thank goodness that Giants’ coach Tom Coughlin took the time to educate his young counterpart on the Bucs as to the inviolable “unwritten rules” of the NFL, and that the New York players handled the situation in such a classy way by using violence and threats to ensure that, hopefully, such a horrible incident does not occur again. In other news, the league fined 49ers’ CB Tarell Brown $5,250 for wearing red sleeves. What a relief. I watched that game, and the sight of those garish sleeves caused me to spill my tea. What is this league coming to?

In this week’s edition of “Quarterback Rating is Dumb,” let’s compare the week 2 performances of Kevin Kolb and Russell Wilson. For defeating the Pats for the first time EVER in a home opener at Foxborough, Kolb’s stat line of 15 for 27, for 140 yards, with 1 TD and no INTs garnered him a Passer Rating of 82.3, while Wilson’s 15 of 20 for 151, with 1 TD and no INTs in a home victory against the Cowboys was somehow worth over 30 points more, coming in at a robust 112.7. Somehow that doesn’t quite add-up to me.

Sticking with QBs, I am proud to bring you the first edition of my “Shut Up and Play” award. This week, the award is shared by Chicago’s Jay Cutler and Baltimore’s Joe Flacco. Prior to their Thursday night matchup with the Packers in Green Bay, Bears’ QB Cutler’s message to the Packers’ secondary was, “Good luck.” Cutler went on to post a less-than-stellar stat line of 11 of 26 for 126 yards, with 4 INTs and 7 Sacks. Brilliant strategy by Cutler, riling up a Packers team that had lost its home opener to the 49ers and which was desperate not to start 0-2. Meanwhile, Flacco was quoted as saying, “…I think I'm the best…,” en route to a 22 of 42 for 232 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT, performance. On the Ravens’ final drive of the game, facing 3rd and 1, Baltimore coach John Harbaugh called pass plays on 3rd and 4th down, despite the fact that the Ravens were near midfield, had two timeouts remaining, only needed a FG to win, and have one of the best RBs in football, Ray Rice. The passes called were of the short, swing/screen variety, one to the TE, and one to Rice. The play calling reminded me of a couple of other teams; the first ones that spring to mind are the 2011 and 2010 Ravens. Like I said in my season preview, Joe Flacco has an outstanding W-L record, but he has amassed it on the back of the Ravens’ defence and its running game. Flacco still hasn’t proven anything. He might say he’s the best, but, judging by the play-calling, I suspect that head coach Harbaugh has his doubts. The Ravens’ play calling reeks of a desperate attempt to boost Flacco’s confidence by allowing him to “lead” his team to victory.

Thursday Night

Giants at Panthers

Both teams are coming off emotional victories, New York in a huge comeback, and Carolina against division rival New Orleans, and are playing on short rest. Both have key injuries on offence, with RB Jonathan Stewart or the Panthers hobbled, and WR Hakeem Nicks out for the Giants. I think that the Giants are at a slight disadvantage, due to the way their game against Tampa Bay ended. Acting self-righteous can be exhausting, and playing the victim can have the dual negative effect of making you feel weak, as well as look weak to those who would exploit weakness. In the NFL, the weak get crushed. Winner: Panthers

Sunday

49ers at Vikings

San Fran continues its barnstorming tour of the NFC North, where they will meet their easiest opponent thus far in Minnesota. Randy Moss returns to the city where he began his pro career. The Niners suffered no week 2 letdown, and look great from top to bottom. Winner: 49ers

Lions at Titans

Tennessee looked terrible against the Chargers last week. If Chris Johnson doesn’t break out of his slump soon, his days could be numbered with the Titans, provided they could find a team willing to take on his huge contract. Detroit hung tough against the 49erslast week, and should be more than capable of handling the Titans. Calvin Johnson watch: held out of the end zone for the second straight week. Winner: Lions

Rams at Bears

Things are not all rosy in Chicagoland. Jay Cutler may be talented, but he’s still an insufferable dick. Meanwhile, it has taken all of two games of the Jeff Fisher regime for St. Louis to begin getting a reputation as dirty. Are we sure that Gregg Williams hasn’t been paying any clandestine visits to the Rams’ practice facility? Winner: Bears

Buccaneers at Cowboys

This one is about coaching. The Bucs, like them or not, have strong leadership, and have shown in their first two games that they are willing to lay it all on the line. As for Dallas, Jason Garrett is demonstrating yet again that he is in complete control of how well and quickly he does exactly what Jerry Jones tells him to do. Winner: Buccaneers

Bengals at Washington

Cincinnati’s defence has struggled uncharacteristically, but what I like about the Bengals is that they have acknowledged this, which is the first step toward improvement. Meanwhile, their young talent on offence looks capable of great things. Washington suffered a heartbreaking loss last week to the Rams, as well as some key losses due to injuries. Winner: Bengals

Jaguars at Colts

Andrew Luck did not have to wait very long to notch his first NFL victory. He should get his second this week against the lowly Jags. Winner: Colts

Chiefs at Saints

New Orleans is reeling after two tough losses to division foes. The offence still looks capable of lighting it up, so I expect them to come out fast this week to avoid having to play catch-up like they had to do against the Bucs and Panthers. Winner: Saints

Jets at Dolphins

New York looked like world beaters in week 1, terrible in week 2. Miami was dreadful in their opener, then put up 35 points last week. My head hurts. Winner: Jets

Bills at Browns

Buffalo does this every year. Just when you think you’ve got them figured out, they surprise you. Cleveland has made two good offences struggle already this season. If CJ Spiller wasn’t so ridiculously hot right now, I might give the Browns a shot in this one. Winner: Bills

Eagles at Cardinals

Arizona made the Pats offence look really bad last week, and Michael Vick and the Eagles’ offence have struggled. However, the Cards’ offence has done precious little, and Arizona can’t afford to give Philly the number of opportunities that they will this week. Winner: Eagles

Falcons at Chargers

I still say that San Diego is not very good this year. I can’t say that about Atlanta. The Falcons win big. Winner: Falcons

Texans at Broncos

Peyton Manning proved mortal against an Atlanta team that had a number of key injuries in its secondary. The Houston defence will give him fits. Winner: Texans

Steelers at Raiders

Pittsburgh bounced back nicely against the Jets last week, getting it done on defence despite missing Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. They’ll have to do it again this week against an Oakland team that seems to have lost the ability to run the ball. Winner: Steelers

Patriots at Ravens

Toughest pick for me this week. I know I should go with Baltimore at home, especially with how much they hate New England. I don’t know what it is, but I just have a feeling that the Pats will use Brandon Lloyd to take the top off the Ravens’ defence, while Welker, Ridley, and Gronk kill them underneath, and that their pass rush rattles Flacco into making mistakes. Winner: Patriots

Monday Night

Packers at Seahawks

Green Bay roared back to life last week, as their defence neutralized Jay Cutler. Clay Matthews is on fire after two games. Seattle’s defence is solid, and will create problems for Aaron Rodgers and Co., but not enough. Winner: Packers

Last week: 9-7

You know what? In a week where the 49ers go into Lambeau and thrash the Packers (nailed that one), Washington goes into the Superdome led by a rookie QB and beats the Saints (didn’t get that one, but it was awesome), the Bills make the Jets look like the 2007 Pats (yikes!), and Peyton Manning returns after 20 months and three neck surgeries to stun the Steelers (another loss for me, but I was still rooting for him), I’ll take 9-7.

Last season, I wrote about the oft-mentioned, but mostly meaningless “statistic” Passer Rating (or, as it’s sometimes called, “QB Rating”). This week, I am introducing a new feature, which I will tentatively call “Quarterback Rating is Dumb” (Until I think of, or someone suggests, something better). This week’s installment features Jay Cutler of the Chicago Bears. Based on passer rating, Cutler’s 21 of 35 for 333 yards, with 2 TDs and 1 INT (98.9 rating) in beating the Colts was no match for Sam Bradford (17 for 25, 198, 1 and 0, 105.1), Philip Rivers (24 for 33, 231, 1 and 0, 102.0), or Christian Ponder 20 for 27, 270, 0 and 0, 105.5). Go figure.

Thursday Night

Bears at Packers

How to explain how low Chicago appears on some columnists’ weekly power rankings? I feel like I’m the only one who can remember how well the Bears were playing last season up until Jay Cutler’s thumb injury, and if anything, they’re better on offence now, with additions like Brandon Marshall (who had a big game in week 1) and RB Michael Bush (who gives them enviable depth behind Matt Forte). Tough week for Green Bay, having to face a scary 49ers’ team, followed by Chicago, on a short week. The Packers have a shot in this one (sounds weird to be writing THAT); Rodgers should be able to find more holes to exploit in the Bears’ secondary with Charles Tillman unlikely to play, even if Greg Jennings is iffy to play himself, and Clay Matthews looked great rushing the passer against San Fran. Right now, though, Chicago just looks better on both sides of the ball. Winner: Bears

Sunday

Texans at Jaguars

Houston looked good in all facets of the game in week 1, although it would have been difficult not to against pitiful Miami. The Texans continue their tour of Florida disaster areas in Jacksonville this week. The Jags snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week, scoring a go-ahead TD and 2-point conversion with 20 seconds left in the 4th quarter to take a 3-point lead, only to give up a 55-yard game tying field goal at the end of regulation and lose in OT. It’s going to be that kind of year for the Jags. Winner: Texans

Chiefs at Bills

What should I make of this one? Buffalo looked dreadful in their opener, making the Jets look like the best offence in the league, and suffering some costly injuries in the process. Kansas City gave up 40 points to the new-look Falcons’ offence, but looked less like they were letting their opponent win that the Bills did. If not for the injuries, I’d look for Buffalo to bounce back, but the pressure’s on for their home-opener, and I have a bad feeling. Winner: Chiefs

Buccaneers at Giants

New York is in for a tough fight in this one. The Bucs defence performed like a unit desperate to be coached after last season’s catastrophe, and their talent showed through in beating the Panthers in week 1. The Giants look vulnerable after their loss to Dallas in week 1. Injuries in New York’s secondary and linebacking corps placed too much of the onus on their defensive line. If Eli Manning and his WRs (I’m looking at you, Victor Cruz) have another sloppy outing, this Bucs defence will make them pay. Winner: Buccaneers

Browns at Bengals

No doubt Cincinnati is disheartened after its loss to the Ravens on Monday night, but it’s not all bad news for them. Their offence looked good at times, difficult to do considering how well Baltimore played, and their defence, while giving up a lot of points, didn’t look overmatched in talent, just a bit overwhelmed by the pace of the Ravens’ revamped offence. Look for the Bengals to bounce back. It’s difficult to know what to take away from Cleveland’s week 1 game against the Eagles. They lost a close one, but at times the game must have seemed like a competition between Brandon Weeden and Michael Vick to see who could complete the most passes to the other team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Colt McCoy this weekend. Winner: Bengals

Raiders at Dolphins

If I know anything about the Raiders, it’s that the backup long-snapper will get serious reps in practice this week. Oakland should have won their week 1 game against San Diego, but they wore out their defence giving the Chargers great field position due to a series of special teams miscues. With a bit more luck in getting some healthy receivers on the field, this could be a decent Raiders’ offence, one where Carson Palmer doesn’t have to throw to RB Darren McFadden 18 times (McFadden had 13 catches). New Dolphins Head Coach "GOB" Philbin must be looking looking at his tenure thus far and saying, "I've made a huge mistake." I don’t know what else I can say about the Dolphins. Have I mentioned that they’re not very good? Winner: Raiders

Cardinals at Patriots

Arizona played well enough in its opener to beat a Seattle team that didn’t play very well at all. Kevin Kolb got the W in relief of injured starter John Skelton (I sound like I’m writing about baseball… <shivers>), and will start this week. New England looked good on offence in week 1, very efficient and businesslike, almost boring. Their defence was a revelation, with highly-drafted rookies Chandler Jones (DE) and Dont’a Hightower (LB) making valuable contributions, and Jerod Mayo continuing in his role as tackling machine. A Patriots team with an improved defence must scare the crap out of the rest of the league. Winner: Patriots

Vikings at Colts

Minnesota pulled one out of the fire against the Jags in week 1. Andrew Luck played well in his first start against a really tough Bears team. This week, Luck should get his first victory. Winner: Colts

Ravens at Eagles

I can hear the boos already. If Vick plays like he did against the Browns last week, this one will get ugly fast, on the scoreboard and in the stands. If he plays well, we have a game. So goes the fortunes of the Philadelphia Eagles in 2012. Winner: Ravens

Saints at Panthers

Hard to tell what happens here. The Saints couldn’t stop rookie Robert Griffin III in their opener, and now have to face Cam Newton. Newton’s Panthers struggled mightily against the Bucs in week 1, but that was most likely due to Tampa Bay’s defensive effort. Look for Carolina to bounce back this week. New Orleans missed suspended coach Sean Payton in its opener; as I mentioned in my season preview, the Saints seemed unable to make the necessary in-game adjustments needed to succeed against Washington. Winner: Panthers

Cowboys at Seahawks

Dallas played reasonably well in its opener, but they may have looked better than they are against a Giants team that was thin on defence due to injuries, and that played sloppy on offence. The Seahawks will be a tougher test for them. Russell Wilson looked shaky at times in his regular season debut, but he was also let down by inconsistent receiver play. Seattle will be better this week, and the 12th man should help them win a squeaker. Winner: Seahawks

Washington at Rams

So, RGIII is the real deal. That’s bad news for St. Louis, which, although they gave a spirited effort against the Lions in week 1, still don’t  look particularly dynamic in any facet of the game. Winner: Washington

Titans at Chargers

San Diego looked pretty good on defence in their Monday nighter against the Raiders, but Oakland is pretty banged-up at receiver right now. Tennessee’s offence should be more of a challenge. Jake Locker looked fine against the Pats, until he had to leave the game with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, and either he or Matt Hasselbeck can ably lead the Titans’ attack. The world awaits the return of CJ2000. Chris Johnson did not do well in week 1, but New England’s defence is significantly improved over a unit that was very difficult to run against last season. I’d like to see him break out this week. Winner: Titans

Jets at Steelers

OK, Sanchez; do it again against the Steelers and I’ll start to take you seriously. I’ll even spot you a hobbled James Harrison. In other news, Bills RB CJ Spiller had 169 yards rushing (on only 14 carries) against the Jets’ defence, and Darrelle Revis suffered what appeared to be a concussion in week 1 which may make him unavailable to grab, push, and interfere with Pittsburgh’s receivers this week. Winner: Steelers

Lions at 49ers

Detroit barely beat the Rams in week 1. Matthew Stafford played like crap, and needed to throw the ball 48 times to pull out a last second victory. I shudder to think what will happen against San Fran’s defence. No wait, what I meant to say is, “I can’t wait to see what happens against San Fran’s defence!” The 49ers dismantled Green Bay in week 1. Now, they look like the best overall team in the NFL, and the Packers have no mantle. Calvin Johnson Watch: Held out of the end-zone in week 1 (after scoring 16 times last season); held out of practice on Wednesday of this week with an injury. I wonder what’s going through his head? Winner: 49ers.

Monday Night

Broncos at Falcons

This looks like a great game for Monday night. Denver looked really good against the Steelers. Their defence played well, their pass rush seems to be picking up right where it left off last season, and Peyton Manning looked comfortable in his first regular season action in almost 2 years. Atlanta looks to be as potent as advertised on offence. However, they’re a little shorthanded in their defensive secondary this week. That may be all the opening that Manning and the Broncos need to pull the upset. Winner: Broncos

Before I get to my Week 1 picks, I have to address a serious oversight in my season preview. In my preview, I talked about the significance of offseason activities, as well as certain x-factors which, unforeseen, can have a major impact on a team’s fortunes, yet I neglected to mention one particular offseason event which may affect one particular team’s best player. Of course, the event to which I am referring is Detroit Lions’ WR Calvin Johnson being chosen as the cover athlete for Madden NFL 13. Now, don’t get me wrong; I don’t believe in magic or in the supernatural powers of something like a video game being able to affect a player’s performance or cause an injury. However, I do believe that the so-called “Madden Curse” is a real thing. Over the years, the curse has become the topic of a great deal of discussion based upon the disturbing number of players who have been deemed to have succumbed to it. A professional athlete, especially one who plays such a dangerous sport at as high a level as Calvin Johnson does, must be at his absolute best in both body and mind. The human psyche is a powerful, complex thing. The Madden cover jinx always gets discussed when EA Sports names the cover athlete for its latest version, and the chosen player always gets asked about it afterward. Once that seed has been planted, who knows what havoc it can wreak on a player’s subconscious. Take the case of last season’s victim, Peyton Hillis. After a breakout season the year before, Hillis achieved a high level of fame quickly, culminating in his being chosen to grace the cover of Madden NFL 12. Hillis’s difficulties last season began with some nagging injuries, and just snowballed from there. At the first sign of trouble, the Madden questions started flying. If Calvin Johnson has any difficulties this year, whether it be a minor injury, a key dropped pass, a slow start, a traffic ticket, or what have you, the speculation will begin. I know it sounds silly to think that any intelligent person might start asking themselves whether dark forces are aligning against them, but ask yourself what you might think under similar circumstances. In the NFL, potential disaster lurks on every play, including in practice. Calvin Johnson’s job is to perform to the limits of his ability while being pursued by very large, very fast men whose job it is to physically stop him. The seed has been planted. Best of luck, Megatron.

Jaguars at Vikings

Right now, the Jags look like the worst team in the NFL. Rashard Jenkins gets the start at RB, and the third-down back will be some guy who didn’t even play in the preseason. Poor Blaine Gabbert will have precious few weapons at his disposal, which should make for a rough day with Jared Allen breathing down his neck. Even a sub-par day for returning Vikes RB Adrian Peterson should be enough in this one. Winner: Vikings

Bills at Jets

Buffalo should try to get after Mark Sanchez early (speaking of fragile psyches). Even with WR Stevie Johnson at less than 100%, the Bills should have enough depth on offence to outscore the pitiful Jets. Winner: Bills

Dolphins at Texans

Arian Foster will be a game-time decision for the Texans after a minor injury in practice this week. It won’t matter; Miami is outclassed here. Winner: Texans

Patriots at Titans

This is not a bad Tennessee team by any standard, but the Pats just have too many weapons on offence, and Tom Brady is a fast starter. Winner: Patriots

Colts at Bears

I like this Bears team a lot. They have all the makings of a nightmare matchup for anyone. With some of the Colts WRs banged-up, it will be a rough welcome to the NFL for top draft pick Andrew Luck. Winner: Bears

Rams at Lions

This is a bad matchup for the Rams’ offence. Detroit’s pass-rush will give Sam Bradford fits. Don’t be surprised if Calvin Johnson takes the field covered in bubble-wrap. Winner: Lions

Falcons at Chiefs

I’m eagerly anticipating the debut of Atlanta’s new-look offence. Matt Ryan should have a big day throwing to Roddy White and Julio Jones.  Winner: Falcons

Eagles at Browns

The Michael Vick Watch begins. If he can stay healthy, the sky’s the limit for Philly. Cleveland is not quite there yet, though I’ll be interested to see how 28-year-old rookie QB Brandon Weeden performs in a tough first assignment. Winner: Eagles

Washington at Saints

It’s a fortunate thing for New Orleans that they draw a relatively easy assignment for their first game (last season, they opened against Green Bay), what with all the offseason turmoil as a result of the whole “bounty thing.” Washington is another team pinning its hopes on a rookie QB, and I am very much looking forward to seeing how Robert Griffin III performs against big-time NFL defences.  The Saints will come out fired-up, and will go for the kill on offence. I expect a lot of points. Winner: Saints

Panthers at Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has talent on the roster, but they were so egregiously awful at the end of last season that it’s difficult to anticipate what they’ll be like this year. Carolina is a team on the rise. I don’t see this one as quite as cut-and-dried as some of the other games, but I’m going with the team with the best player, in this case Cam Newton. Winner: Panthers

Seahawks at Cardinals

 Seattle is a little banged-up, but they should have little trouble dispatching the lowly Cards. The Seahawks are another team starting the season with a rookie QB, Russell Wilson, at the helm. Arizona goes with John Skelton at QB. Poor Larry Fitzgerald. Winner: Seahawks

49ers at Packers

My toughest pick of the week. I made a lot of hay picking Green Bay last season. The Packers’ offence runs like a well-oiled machine. They rely a lot on timing, and on the ability of Aaron Rodgers to make plays. San Francisco has virtually no weak area to exploit on defence. If there is any team that can disrupt Green Bay’s offensive tempo, it’s the 49ers. The real difference here lies in the matchup between San Fran’s offence and the Packers’ defence. If 49ers’ QB Alex Smith can avoid mistakes, he has the complementary weapons at the skill positions to get the job done against a Packers defence which was porous last season, largely due to its inability to pressure opposing QBs.  Winner: 49ers

Steelers at Broncos

Pittsburgh begins the season with a lot of question marks on both offence and defence due to injuries. They need to start strong, so as not to put themselves in a hole in an extremely competitive division. Peyton Manning is playing his first meaningful football in a while, and I expect the Steelers to go after him and his receivers in an attempt to disrupt his tempo and make him uncomfortable. That should be the difference in this one. Winner: Steelers

Monday Night

Bengals at Ravens

This will be a real test for Cincinnati, sort of a gauge for them to measure how they match up against the class of the division, and the conference. I expect a good game. Baltimore will win a close one, but the game will be one in which the Bengals gain the confidence that will propel them to a stellar season. Of particular interest in this game will be how well the Ravens’ pass-rush performs without Terrell Suggs, and the beginning of Andy Dalton’s second season as the Bengals’ starting QB. Winner: Ravens

Chargers at Raiders

I think that the return of RB Darren McFadden makes the difference here. McFadden is such a talented rusher and receiver out of the backfield that he can only serve to improve the performance of starting QB Carson Palmer. Palmer should have more time to go through his progressions as San Diego is forced to pay more attention to McFadden. Philip Rivers is coming off a sub-par season, and the offence is thin on complementary talent. Winner: Raiders

Finally, I would be remiss if I did not mention Ravens’ LB Brendon Ayanbadejo. Ayanbadejo has recently found himself in the national news as a result of his long-standing and public support for gay rights and marriage equality. A Maryland politician tried to pressure the Baltimore Ravens into silencing Ayanbadejo, who has stood his ground. Kudos as well to the Ravens’ organization for supporting its player, and to the various NFL players who have publicly supported Ayanbadejo’s stance. In a time when world-class athletes often attain notoriety for bad behaviour, arrests, DUIs, cheating, labour disputes, and drug use and abuse, it is refreshing to see an athlete like Brendon Ayanbadejo in the news for being a decent human being.

Enjoy opening Sunday everyone, wherever you are. I’ll be parked in front of my TV with beer and wings at the ready. 

For me, there is football season, and there is the time I spend waiting for football season. Finally, the waiting is over. Today is, for me, the unofficial opening day of NFL 2012 (Official opening day is Sunday). I’ve been so caught up in getting my daughter ready for university, that I only just realized this week that the first game is on a Wednesday. Now I’m focused and ready.  Bring on some football!

Tonight, we have a matchup featuring an intense division rivalry, as the Cowboys visit Snoopy Stadium to take on the Super Bowl Champs, the New York Giants. The Giants hope to improve on last season’s 9-7 record, while several experts have predicted that this Cowboys team will win the NFC East. Tonight’s game should be a good one (I’ll give my prediction later). However, neither of these teams is bound for the playoffs. That’s a sneak preview of my season preview.

Last year was my first time doing a season preview. I enjoyed doing it, and I actually did pretty well. (Then again, I also picked the 49ers to finish last in their division, so consider the source.) For this year’s preview, I did something a bit different. I spent the past couple of weeks thinking about how good I thought each team would be. I read as much as I could about any changes that teams underwent since last season, and factored those changes into my impressions of the teams’ performance from last season, and tried to imagine the order of finishing for each division. Then, I copied and pasted a full schedule to a Word document, and went through each game and picked a winner based on my impression of the team as it is right now. I did factor in home-field advantage, but I didn’t go too deeply into my analysis, with things like teams playing on a short or long week, potential weather conditions, and so on. I simply looked at each matchup, went with my first impression, double-clicked and bolded the winner, and moved on to the next one. It’s hardly scientific; for several teams, it was hard to imagine them losing, while it was hard to find wins for others. In fact, I could not find a single win in the Jaguars’ schedule.

Does this mean that I expect Jacksonville to go 0-16? Of course not; this is the NFL. You know, “On any given Sunday…” That also means that I don’t believe that three teams will finish 15-1, even though I found 15 wins on their schedules (I’ll let you try to guess which ones; the answers may surprise you).  Plus, I know that the way I see things now will most definitely change, as surprise contenders emerge, expected contenders falter, new stars emerge as older ones fade, and injuries destroy promising seasons. There are always those unforeseeable x-factors. For a lot of teams, a season can come down to one play. The Giants were one Tony Romo overthrow away from missing the playoffs last year. The Bears were playing some of the best football in the league last year when Jay Cutler broke his thumb while trying to make a tackle after a fluke interception. The Patriots’ offence looked unstoppable last year until Rob Gronkowski’s injury. The Broncos anointed Tim Tebow as their savior, and God brought them victories (That is, until Denver came up against Beelzichick and his minions in the playoffs—Biblical scholars can draw their own conclusions). Right out of the gate, a huge question mark is the replacement officials. I don’t watch preseason games, but I have heard some real horror stories about atrocious officiating. Players (and coaches) should decide games, not officials. In a season with only 16 games, with so much riding on each play, even one really bad call can have drastic repercussions.

Ok, enough pontificating. Same as last year, I will go division by division, starting with my predicted order of finish, followed by a brief overview. Before I begin, however, let me say just one more thing about my “system.” When I tallied up the wins for each team, the divisional order was almost exactly as I had envisioned it. There were a couple of surprises, but I’m committed to the process, so I’m sticking with it.

At least until next week.

AFC

East

Patriots

Bills

Jets

Dolphins

New England is still the class of the division. Their offence will score a ton of points. Towards the end of last season, the Pats looked nigh-unstoppable when they had Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez on the field together. This season, Tom Brady has another potent weapon at his disposal, as the Pats signed Brandon Lloyd. With some improvement on the defensive side of the ball, they will be tough to beat. Buffalo looks poised to give the Pats something to think about. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a steady hand at QB, and they have a good receiving corps and an all-world tandem at RB in Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. If Mario Williams can stay healthy, he should vastly improve the Bills’ ability to pressure opposing QBs. Expect a big drop-off by the Jets this season. I can’t see where the points are coming from on offence; they look thin at RB, the hallmark of their offensive identity, their most talented WR, Santonio Holmes, doubles as the team’s biggest distraction, and their starting QB, Mark Sanchez lacks confidence (He’s already hearing the “Tebow” chants in his head, I’ll wager). For New York to contend, their aging defence will need to carry the team. Even with all-overrated CB Darrelle Revis (seriously, if the officials nailed him for half the fouls he commits, he would be on the bench), they don’t have it in them. Miami will have a good pass-rush, and very little else. I’m not sure what’s up with this team. Often, bad teams will go through a period of rebuilding, but in Miami, it’s more like de-building. Towards the end of last season, the Dolphins were actually playing some decent football. QB Matt Moore was playing well. They had decent receivers. The defence was solid. Then, in the offseason; they hired Green Bay offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, then failed to sign free-agent QB Matt Flynn, who played for Philbin in Green Bay, then drafted so-so QB Ryan Tannehill in the first round, then signed washed-up QB David Garrard, then anointed Garrard the starter, then opened up the QB competition when Garrard was injured, then made the green rookie the starter, while jettisoning the team’s best receiver, Brandon Marshall. Can you follow that logic? The best that Dolphins’ fans can hope for this year is a high draft pick next year, which the team’s “brain trust” will no doubt trade for another useless QB, or some magic beans.

North

Bengals

Ravens

Steelers

Browns

This one surprised me a bit, but that’s the way the numbers came out.  I like the Bengals’ offence. Andy Dalton was a revelation as a rookie QB, and with the receiving talent at his disposal, I do not expect a sophomore slump.  I thought that Cincy’s defence would struggle last year after losing some key starters, but they rose to the occasion and were solid again last season. Baltimore is expecting its offence to improve dramatically this year, but I’m still not entirely sold on Joe Flacco. In past seasons, I’ve heard the same talk about how he would “have a breakout year” after the team added this or that new receiver, but it never seems to come to pass (pun intended), and the team ends up relying on running game, as well as expecting its defence to score points and provide short fields by creating turnovers. Speaking of the defence, that’s where I see the real trouble. Ray Lewis, as good as he has been, has a lot of miles on him. Ed Reed is banged up. Their pass-rush, a real strength last season, will start the season without the irreplaceable Terrell Suggs. The Ravens will contend, but they are ripe for a fall. Pittsburgh landed right where I expected them to, in third. Ben Roethlisberger takes too much punishment, and the offence goes nowhere without him. Some of the defensive starters are so old I can hear their joints creaking all the way up here in Nova Scotia. They are still talented and dangerous, but their best hope for a playoff spot will be as a wild card. Cleveland was one of those teams I mentioned in the opening where I had difficulty finding wins in their schedule. They’ll be starting the year with a 28-year-old rookie at QB, and a gimpy rookie (albeit, a talented one) at RB. There’s not much else to say, really.

South

Texans

Titans

Colts

Jaguars

I thought that Tennessee might give Houston a run for their money this season, but it shouldn’t be close. The Texans will win comfortably, even if injuries have them starting their backup long-snapper at QB (remember last season?). Houston is deep in talent, and extremely well-coached on defence. On offence, they have the best RB in football in Arian Foster, and they employ a blocking scheme which plays to his strengths. They are solid at starting QB (injuries notwithstanding), and have plenty of talent at wideout. The Titans have some question marks on offence, with Jake Locker beginning his first season as the starter at QB, key receivers returning from injuries, and a starting RB who has been writing cheques with his mouth that his body can’t cover for the past couple of seasons. Indianapolis will be better this year with top draft pick Andrew Luck at QB (quite frankly, their backup long-snapper would be an improvement over Curtis Painter). No matter how much the Colts struggle this year, they should be able to avoid the cellar, which is reserved for Jacksonville. The Jags’ best player, Maurice Jones-Drew, staged one of the most ill-advised holdouts in sports history, demanding more money from a team with a new owner, playing in a city where they can’t sell out home games, and that will stink with him or without him this season. Not surprisingly, MJD ended his holdout after not getting any more money, being fined severely by the team for not reporting, and losing his starting job for the Jags’ opening game. Bravo, MJD. Bravo.

West

Broncos

Raiders

Chargers

Chiefs

After their success last season with an extremely one-dimensional offence, I expected big things from Denver after winning the Peyton Manning Sweepstakes. They have a solid defence, talented young receivers, and a strong running game. Their schedule is brutal. Fortunately, the rest of the division isn’t all that great. The Raiders could contend this year, but there are a lot of ifs. Carson Palmer has to play better, especially cutting down on his interceptions. As Darren McFadden goes, so goes Oakland’s offence, which will be nowhere if he can’t stay healthy. San Diego is sinking fast. Philip Rivers is talented, driven, and tough, but he was terrible last year. He looked to be trying to do too much. This season, Vincent Jackson is gone, and oft injured TE Antonio Gates can’t dominate from the bench. Kansas City has some key starters returning from major injuries last season; TE Tony Moeaki, RB Jamaal Charles, and SS Eric Berry. Losing these three players sunk the Chiefs last year, and the fact that they all blew out an ACL makes it difficult to predict how they will perform this season. With a bit of luck, the Chiefs could relegate San Diego to last place.

Wild Card Teams: Ravens, Bills

NFC

East

Eagles

Giants

Cowboys

Washington

What can I say about Philadelphia? They have loads of talent at the skill positions on offence. They have perhaps the most talented starting tandem in the league at CB. They have a good pass-rush. The division is theirs for the taking. It all hangs on one guy, Michael Vick, the same Michael Vick who has never played a full, 16-game season as a starter. He still has the tools. As long as he’s healthy, the Eagles offence can match just about any team score-for-score. The Giants start the year with some concerns about their running game and pass protection, as well as some injuries at WR. Their defensive line is deep and dangerous, and they’ll have to be. They look like a .500 team to me. Of course, since I’m talking about the Giants, that could mean that they start 4-8, win their last 4 games with Eli Manning throwing for 2000 yards combined, beat the Eagles for the division crown on the basis of the 10th tiebreaker, then run the table in the playoffs, thereby creating the most unlikely dynasty in sports history (that groan you heard came from the Boston area). I pity poor Tony Romo. He seems like the type of guy who would practically kill himself to win. He’s good enough. Sadly, I look around him this year and I see nothing. The Cowboys’ RBs are fragile. WR Miles Austin is banged-up. The immensely talented Dez Bryant had conditioning problems last year, which caused him to fade at the end of games and made him injury-prone. Romo’s favourite receiver, TE Jason Witten, has a lacerated spleen. The defence is thin on talent, and is coached by the vastly overrated Rob Ryan, who often makes overcomplicated calls in an effort to prove his “genius.” Washington fans are excited about their new QB, rookie Robert Griffin III. I hope he survives.

North

Packers

Bears

Lions

Vikings

Green Bay will score. A lot. Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the league, hands down. They need to improve on defence, especially their pass-rush, in order to take some of the pressure off their secondary. I expect Chicago to push the Packers to the brink this season. Before Cutler’s injury last year, the Bears’ offence was humming along. This year, Cutler will be reunited with his former Broncos’ teammate Brandon Marshall. As for their defence, it will be stout even if Brian Urlacher is limited in what he can do this season. Detroit comes into this season with high expectations, but they won’t live up to them. QB Matthew Stafford threw for over 5000 yards last year, but he was helped out by some of the best receiver play I have ever seen, particularly by Calvin Johnson. They have virtually no reliable running attack. Their defence is led by an extremely talented, but undisciplined defensive line. DT Ndamukong Suh, was only so-so last season, after a dominating rookie season. His failure to develop as a player is as a result of poor coaching. Several players on the team, including Suh, ran afoul of the law during the offseason. Someone needs to take control in Detroit, before all that talent gets wasted. Minnesota is in for a tough year. Adrian Peterson is coming back from injury. The Vikings aren’t terrible, but they play in an extremely tough division. It’s a long way to the top.

South

Falcons

Panthers

Saints

Buccaneers

Atlanta will have a potent offence this year. QB Matt Ryan is very good, and he has a great tandem of starting wideouts in Roddy White and Julio Jones. Their defence is well-coached and gets the job done. Carolina will be much-improved this year. QB Cam Newton only scratched the surface of his immense talent last year. Their offence will move the ball on the ground and in the air. New Orleans still has Drew Brees, and he has enough weapons to light up the scoreboard. I think that the team will miss Sean Peyton, and will suffer as a result, especially with in-game adjustments. After the debacle that was last season, Tampa Bay is starting over. There’s talent there, but the poor coaching from last season has left a lot of damage to be undone. In this division, they look bound for the basement.

West

49ers

Seahawks

Rams

Cardinals

Time to finish up with the NFC West, or as I like to call it, the haves and the have-nots. San Francisco should win comfortably. The offence will be fine, as long as Alex Smith takes care of the ball. The running game is solid, and the receiving corps is deep. As for the defence, there is none better in the NFL right now. They have a solid pass-rush, a very good secondary, and the best linebackers in the league, led by Patrick Willis. I expect Seattle to be good this year, and with a bit of luck, might even challenge the 49ers. They have a well-coached, disciplined defence. If they are able to get some production from their wideouts, and rookie QB Russell Wilson (or, waiting in the wings, Matt Flynn) plays well, the offence will put the Seahawks right in the playoff hunt. St. Louis was one of the biggest disappointments in the league last season, picked by many experts to win the West, but finishing a dismal 2-14. They don’t look much better this year, but still better than Arizona. The Cardinals are another team going nowhere.  Their brilliant idea to improve the offence was to draft a WR to play opposite Larry Fitzgerald, then have a QB competition between “Footsteps” Kevin Kolb and John “Nuke” Skelton (‘cause he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a fuckin’ boat), which is kind of like wearing Cartier earrings with a JC Penney dress (Ed.: The preceding analogy was provided to highlight my sensitive side, as well as to cynically appeal to a different demographic). 1 and 15 would not surprise me.

Wild Card Teams: Bears, Seahawks

Well, that’s it. I’d love to hear your opinions. Feel free to comment with your take on my analysis, or with your own picks. Sharing the link is encouraged.

I will post my weekly picks column this weekend.

Oh, and one more thing: the Giants will beat the Cowboys tonight. Poor Tony Romo.