Before I get to my Week 1 picks, I have to address a serious oversight in my season preview. In my preview, I talked about the significance of offseason activities, as well as certain x-factors which, unforeseen, can have a major impact on a team’s fortunes, yet I neglected to mention one particular offseason event which may affect one particular team’s best player. Of course, the event to which I am referring is Detroit Lions’ WR Calvin Johnson being chosen as the cover athlete for Madden NFL 13. Now, don’t get me wrong; I don’t believe in magic or in the supernatural powers of something like a video game being able to affect a player’s performance or cause an injury. However, I do believe that the so-called “Madden Curse” is a real thing. Over the years, the curse has become the topic of a great deal of discussion based upon the disturbing number of players who have been deemed to have succumbed to it. A professional athlete, especially one who plays such a dangerous sport at as high a level as Calvin Johnson does, must be at his absolute best in both body and mind. The human psyche is a powerful, complex thing. The Madden cover jinx always gets discussed when EA Sports names the cover athlete for its latest version, and the chosen player always gets asked about it afterward. Once that seed has been planted, who knows what havoc it can wreak on a player’s subconscious. Take the case of last season’s victim, Peyton Hillis. After a breakout season the year before, Hillis achieved a high level of fame quickly, culminating in his being chosen to grace the cover of Madden NFL 12. Hillis’s difficulties last season began with some nagging injuries, and just snowballed from there. At the first sign of trouble, the Madden questions started flying. If Calvin Johnson has any difficulties this year, whether it be a minor injury, a key dropped pass, a slow start, a traffic ticket, or what have you, the speculation will begin. I know it sounds silly to think that any intelligent person might start asking themselves whether dark forces are aligning against them, but ask yourself what you might think under similar circumstances. In the NFL, potential disaster lurks on every play, including in practice. Calvin Johnson’s job is to perform to the limits of his ability while being pursued by very large, very fast men whose job it is to physically stop him. The seed has been planted. Best of luck, Megatron.
Jaguars at Vikings
Right now, the Jags look like the worst team in the NFL. Rashard Jenkins gets the start at RB, and the third-down back will be some guy who didn’t even play in the preseason. Poor Blaine Gabbert will have precious few weapons at his disposal, which should make for a rough day with Jared Allen breathing down his neck. Even a sub-par day for returning Vikes RB Adrian Peterson should be enough in this one. Winner: Vikings
Bills at Jets
Buffalo should try to get after Mark Sanchez early (speaking of fragile psyches). Even with WR Stevie Johnson at less than 100%, the Bills should have enough depth on offence to outscore the pitiful Jets. Winner: Bills
Dolphins at Texans
Arian Foster will be a game-time decision for the Texans after a minor injury in practice this week. It won’t matter; Miami is outclassed here. Winner: Texans
Patriots at Titans
This is not a bad Tennessee team by any standard, but the Pats just have too many weapons on offence, and Tom Brady is a fast starter. Winner: Patriots
Colts at Bears
I like this Bears team a lot. They have all the makings of a nightmare matchup for anyone. With some of the Colts WRs banged-up, it will be a rough welcome to the NFL for top draft pick Andrew Luck. Winner: Bears
Rams at Lions
This is a bad matchup for the Rams’ offence. Detroit’s pass-rush will give Sam Bradford fits. Don’t be surprised if Calvin Johnson takes the field covered in bubble-wrap. Winner: Lions
Falcons at Chiefs
I’m eagerly anticipating the debut of Atlanta’s new-look offence. Matt Ryan should have a big day throwing to Roddy White and Julio Jones. Winner: Falcons
Eagles at Browns
The Michael Vick Watch begins. If he can stay healthy, the sky’s the limit for Philly. Cleveland is not quite there yet, though I’ll be interested to see how 28-year-old rookie QB Brandon Weeden performs in a tough first assignment. Winner: Eagles
Washington at Saints
It’s a fortunate thing for New Orleans that they draw a relatively easy assignment for their first game (last season, they opened against Green Bay), what with all the offseason turmoil as a result of the whole “bounty thing.” Washington is another team pinning its hopes on a rookie QB, and I am very much looking forward to seeing how Robert Griffin III performs against big-time NFL defences. The Saints will come out fired-up, and will go for the kill on offence. I expect a lot of points. Winner: Saints
Panthers at Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has talent on the roster, but they were so egregiously awful at the end of last season that it’s difficult to anticipate what they’ll be like this year. Carolina is a team on the rise. I don’t see this one as quite as cut-and-dried as some of the other games, but I’m going with the team with the best player, in this case Cam Newton. Winner: Panthers
Seahawks at Cardinals
Seattle is a little banged-up, but they should have little trouble dispatching the lowly Cards. The Seahawks are another team starting the season with a rookie QB, Russell Wilson, at the helm. Arizona goes with John Skelton at QB. Poor Larry Fitzgerald. Winner: Seahawks
49ers at Packers
My toughest pick of the week. I made a lot of hay picking Green Bay last season. The Packers’ offence runs like a well-oiled machine. They rely a lot on timing, and on the ability of Aaron Rodgers to make plays. San Francisco has virtually no weak area to exploit on defence. If there is any team that can disrupt Green Bay’s offensive tempo, it’s the 49ers. The real difference here lies in the matchup between San Fran’s offence and the Packers’ defence. If 49ers’ QB Alex Smith can avoid mistakes, he has the complementary weapons at the skill positions to get the job done against a Packers defence which was porous last season, largely due to its inability to pressure opposing QBs. Winner: 49ers
Steelers at Broncos
Pittsburgh begins the season with a lot of question marks on both offence and defence due to injuries. They need to start strong, so as not to put themselves in a hole in an extremely competitive division. Peyton Manning is playing his first meaningful football in a while, and I expect the Steelers to go after him and his receivers in an attempt to disrupt his tempo and make him uncomfortable. That should be the difference in this one. Winner: Steelers
Monday Night
Bengals at Ravens
This will be a real test for Cincinnati, sort of a gauge for them to measure how they match up against the class of the division, and the conference. I expect a good game. Baltimore will win a close one, but the game will be one in which the Bengals gain the confidence that will propel them to a stellar season. Of particular interest in this game will be how well the Ravens’ pass-rush performs without Terrell Suggs, and the beginning of Andy Dalton’s second season as the Bengals’ starting QB. Winner: Ravens
Chargers at Raiders
I think that the return of RB Darren McFadden makes the difference here. McFadden is such a talented rusher and receiver out of the backfield that he can only serve to improve the performance of starting QB Carson Palmer. Palmer should have more time to go through his progressions as San Diego is forced to pay more attention to McFadden. Philip Rivers is coming off a sub-par season, and the offence is thin on complementary talent. Winner: Raiders
Finally, I would be remiss if I did not mention Ravens’ LB Brendon Ayanbadejo. Ayanbadejo has recently found himself in the national news as a result of his long-standing and public support for gay rights and marriage equality. A Maryland politician tried to pressure the Baltimore Ravens into silencing Ayanbadejo, who has stood his ground. Kudos as well to the Ravens’ organization for supporting its player, and to the various NFL players who have publicly supported Ayanbadejo’s stance. In a time when world-class athletes often attain notoriety for bad behaviour, arrests, DUIs, cheating, labour disputes, and drug use and abuse, it is refreshing to see an athlete like Brendon Ayanbadejo in the news for being a decent human being.
Enjoy opening Sunday everyone, wherever you are. I’ll be parked in front of my TV with beer and wings at the ready.
Jaguars at Vikings
Right now, the Jags look like the worst team in the NFL. Rashard Jenkins gets the start at RB, and the third-down back will be some guy who didn’t even play in the preseason. Poor Blaine Gabbert will have precious few weapons at his disposal, which should make for a rough day with Jared Allen breathing down his neck. Even a sub-par day for returning Vikes RB Adrian Peterson should be enough in this one. Winner: Vikings
Bills at Jets
Buffalo should try to get after Mark Sanchez early (speaking of fragile psyches). Even with WR Stevie Johnson at less than 100%, the Bills should have enough depth on offence to outscore the pitiful Jets. Winner: Bills
Dolphins at Texans
Arian Foster will be a game-time decision for the Texans after a minor injury in practice this week. It won’t matter; Miami is outclassed here. Winner: Texans
Patriots at Titans
This is not a bad Tennessee team by any standard, but the Pats just have too many weapons on offence, and Tom Brady is a fast starter. Winner: Patriots
Colts at Bears
I like this Bears team a lot. They have all the makings of a nightmare matchup for anyone. With some of the Colts WRs banged-up, it will be a rough welcome to the NFL for top draft pick Andrew Luck. Winner: Bears
Rams at Lions
This is a bad matchup for the Rams’ offence. Detroit’s pass-rush will give Sam Bradford fits. Don’t be surprised if Calvin Johnson takes the field covered in bubble-wrap. Winner: Lions
Falcons at Chiefs
I’m eagerly anticipating the debut of Atlanta’s new-look offence. Matt Ryan should have a big day throwing to Roddy White and Julio Jones. Winner: Falcons
Eagles at Browns
The Michael Vick Watch begins. If he can stay healthy, the sky’s the limit for Philly. Cleveland is not quite there yet, though I’ll be interested to see how 28-year-old rookie QB Brandon Weeden performs in a tough first assignment. Winner: Eagles
Washington at Saints
It’s a fortunate thing for New Orleans that they draw a relatively easy assignment for their first game (last season, they opened against Green Bay), what with all the offseason turmoil as a result of the whole “bounty thing.” Washington is another team pinning its hopes on a rookie QB, and I am very much looking forward to seeing how Robert Griffin III performs against big-time NFL defences. The Saints will come out fired-up, and will go for the kill on offence. I expect a lot of points. Winner: Saints
Panthers at Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has talent on the roster, but they were so egregiously awful at the end of last season that it’s difficult to anticipate what they’ll be like this year. Carolina is a team on the rise. I don’t see this one as quite as cut-and-dried as some of the other games, but I’m going with the team with the best player, in this case Cam Newton. Winner: Panthers
Seahawks at Cardinals
Seattle is a little banged-up, but they should have little trouble dispatching the lowly Cards. The Seahawks are another team starting the season with a rookie QB, Russell Wilson, at the helm. Arizona goes with John Skelton at QB. Poor Larry Fitzgerald. Winner: Seahawks
49ers at Packers
My toughest pick of the week. I made a lot of hay picking Green Bay last season. The Packers’ offence runs like a well-oiled machine. They rely a lot on timing, and on the ability of Aaron Rodgers to make plays. San Francisco has virtually no weak area to exploit on defence. If there is any team that can disrupt Green Bay’s offensive tempo, it’s the 49ers. The real difference here lies in the matchup between San Fran’s offence and the Packers’ defence. If 49ers’ QB Alex Smith can avoid mistakes, he has the complementary weapons at the skill positions to get the job done against a Packers defence which was porous last season, largely due to its inability to pressure opposing QBs. Winner: 49ers
Steelers at Broncos
Pittsburgh begins the season with a lot of question marks on both offence and defence due to injuries. They need to start strong, so as not to put themselves in a hole in an extremely competitive division. Peyton Manning is playing his first meaningful football in a while, and I expect the Steelers to go after him and his receivers in an attempt to disrupt his tempo and make him uncomfortable. That should be the difference in this one. Winner: Steelers
Monday Night
Bengals at Ravens
This will be a real test for Cincinnati, sort of a gauge for them to measure how they match up against the class of the division, and the conference. I expect a good game. Baltimore will win a close one, but the game will be one in which the Bengals gain the confidence that will propel them to a stellar season. Of particular interest in this game will be how well the Ravens’ pass-rush performs without Terrell Suggs, and the beginning of Andy Dalton’s second season as the Bengals’ starting QB. Winner: Ravens
Chargers at Raiders
I think that the return of RB Darren McFadden makes the difference here. McFadden is such a talented rusher and receiver out of the backfield that he can only serve to improve the performance of starting QB Carson Palmer. Palmer should have more time to go through his progressions as San Diego is forced to pay more attention to McFadden. Philip Rivers is coming off a sub-par season, and the offence is thin on complementary talent. Winner: Raiders
Finally, I would be remiss if I did not mention Ravens’ LB Brendon Ayanbadejo. Ayanbadejo has recently found himself in the national news as a result of his long-standing and public support for gay rights and marriage equality. A Maryland politician tried to pressure the Baltimore Ravens into silencing Ayanbadejo, who has stood his ground. Kudos as well to the Ravens’ organization for supporting its player, and to the various NFL players who have publicly supported Ayanbadejo’s stance. In a time when world-class athletes often attain notoriety for bad behaviour, arrests, DUIs, cheating, labour disputes, and drug use and abuse, it is refreshing to see an athlete like Brendon Ayanbadejo in the news for being a decent human being.
Enjoy opening Sunday everyone, wherever you are. I’ll be parked in front of my TV with beer and wings at the ready.
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