Last week: 12-4
Season total: 165-75
The final week of the regular season is upon us, and it is an especially tricky week for making picks. I have gone back and forth over a few of these games, more so than in any other week this season. The reason: motivation.
In some cases this weekend, it is easy to see what the motivating factor(s) will be for some teams, while with others, these factors are not so clear. Some teams are playing for their playoff lives, some are playing to improve their seeding, and some are already locked in to a playoff position and merely want to keep their starters healthy. The non-playoff teams are more difficult to read. Are they playing for pride? To be playoff spoilers? To end a bad season on a positive note? Ultimately, I end up having to ask myself how much of an advantage, if any, does a particular motivating factor give a team, and it has made things tough for me. I will discuss these problems on a game-by-game basis.
Well, here I go, one more time (at least for the regular season):
Titans at Texans
Tennessee needs to win to have a chance at the playoffs, whereas Houston is locked into the third seed in the AFC. This gives an edge to the Titans. However, the Texans have lost their last two games, and I doubt that they want to enter the playoffs riding a three-game losing streak. Winner: Texans
49ers at Rams
San Francisco can lock up the number two seed in the NFC with a win. St. Louis is the worst team in the league. No contest. Winner: 49ers
Lions at Packers
Green Bay is the better team, but they have absolutely nothing to gain here. I expect to see very little of Aaron Rodgers in this game. A Detroit win can help them avoid a trip to New Orleans or San Francisco in the first round of the playoffs. I have not picked against the Packers once this season. Until now, that is. Winner: Lions
‘skins at Eagles
No playoffs for either one of these teams. Philadelphia can at least finish 8-8, and improve upon its dismal home record. Winner: Eagles
Bills at Patriots
New England can wrap up the number one seed in the AFC with a win. Buffalo is coming to the end of season of massive disappointment. Winner: Patriots
Panthers at Saints
This is one of the tricky ones. Carolina is an extremely dangerous team on offence, and Cam Newton has shown that he is not a player who accepts losing happily. New Orleans could grab the number two seed in the NFC, but only in the unlikely event that the 49ers lose to the Rams. Another motivating factor for the Saints is Drew Brees’s hold on the record for passing yards in a season. Tom Brady could overtake Brees with a strong performance, but only if Brees plays sparingly. The Saints are clearly the better team here, but Sean Payton would be crazy to play his starters for too long in a meaningless game, right? Aye carumba! Winner: Panthers
Colts at Jaguars
Two teams with nothing to play for, unless of course you buy into any of the foolishness about Indianapolis wanting to lose in order to secure the number one pick in the draft. Players don’t lose on purpose, and people who root against the teams for which they profess to be fans are idiots. Having said that, the Colts have been playing much better since benching the putrid Curtis Painter. Plus, Indy’s starting QB Dan Orlovsky’s wife had triplets this week, so I’m sure that he’ll just enjoy being out of the house for a while. Winner: Colts
Bears at Vikings
When I think of how horribly wrong Chicago’s promising season has gone, it makes me sad. The Bears have not won a game since Jay Cutler’s injury. I have a good feeling about them this week, though. Winner: Bears
Jets at Dolphins
New York needs to win to have a chance to make the playoffs, while Miami, although they are out of the playoff picture, would like to spoil the Jets’ chances. I was set to pick the Dolphins, until I heard that Reggie Bush has been ruled out for the game with an injury. That, plus the loss of T Jake Long will give the Jets just the edge they need to win a close one. Winner: Jets
Steelers at Browns
The Steelers can grab the number two seed with a win and a Ravens’ loss, and could even move up to the number one seed if the Pats lose. That should be enough to propel them past Cleveland. Winner: Steelers
Ravens at Bengals
There’s lots at stake here. The Ravens could lock up the number two seed in the AFC with a win, and could move up to number one with a Pats loss. However, if Baltimore loses, they could drop to the fifth seed if Pittsburgh wins. For the Bengals, a win puts them in the playoffs, and would finally give them a win against one the top teams in their division (they’re 0-3 against the Steelers/Ravens this season). I don’t trust the Ravens here. They’ve come up small in these types of situations time and again this season. Winner: Bengals
Chargers at Raiders
The Raiders need to win to have a shot at the playoffs, while the Chargers are out. It’ll be a battle. Winner: Raiders
Buccaneers at Falcons
Atlanta still has a shot at the five seed. Regardless, Tampa Bay is no match for them. Winner: Falcons
Chiefs at Broncos
A Denver win puts them in the playoffs. Chiefs QB (and Broncos’ cast-off) Kyle Orton would love to knock Denver out of the playoffs, but he won’t. Denver got rid of him for a reason. Winner: Broncos
Seahawks at Cardinals
These two teams made a heck of a run at the playoffs in the second half of the season, but fell a bit short. Seattle is the better team, and will close out the season on a high note. Winner: Seahawks
Cowboys at Giants
The NFL made a great decision by flexing this game into the Sunday night slot and making it the final game of the season. This is the least-complicated matchup of the week, in that the teams are competing against each other not only in the game, but for their playoff lives as well, as they are playing for the NFC East title and the last possible playoff spot. The one thing that Dallas absolutely must do is stop Giants’ WR Victor Cruz, as the rest of New York’s receiving corps have been inconsistent (particularly Hakeem Nicks, who has shown a propensity to drop passes at key moments). These teams match up well, but, unfortunately for the Cowboys, they are at an extreme disadvantage in one key area. No, I’m not talking about Tony Romo, who is playing extremely well. In a game like this, a team needs coaches that the players can trust to make competent decisions, and who will make the necessary adjustments to give their team the edge they need to pull out the victory. Poor Jason Garrett has done poorly in clutch situations this season, and this, plus having Jerry Jones constantly hanging over his shoulder, has shaken his confidence. Also, Rob Ryan gets way too much credit for the Cowboys’ defensive successes; he’s vastly overrated as a coach. Tom Coughlin is a cool customer who makes in-game adjustments as well as any coach in the league. That should be the difference in this game. Winner: Giants
Thanks to everyone who took the time to check out my football columns this season. It’s been fun. Enjoy the last week of the season, and be sure to check out my playoff picks.
Season total: 165-75
The final week of the regular season is upon us, and it is an especially tricky week for making picks. I have gone back and forth over a few of these games, more so than in any other week this season. The reason: motivation.
In some cases this weekend, it is easy to see what the motivating factor(s) will be for some teams, while with others, these factors are not so clear. Some teams are playing for their playoff lives, some are playing to improve their seeding, and some are already locked in to a playoff position and merely want to keep their starters healthy. The non-playoff teams are more difficult to read. Are they playing for pride? To be playoff spoilers? To end a bad season on a positive note? Ultimately, I end up having to ask myself how much of an advantage, if any, does a particular motivating factor give a team, and it has made things tough for me. I will discuss these problems on a game-by-game basis.
Well, here I go, one more time (at least for the regular season):
Titans at Texans
Tennessee needs to win to have a chance at the playoffs, whereas Houston is locked into the third seed in the AFC. This gives an edge to the Titans. However, the Texans have lost their last two games, and I doubt that they want to enter the playoffs riding a three-game losing streak. Winner: Texans
49ers at Rams
San Francisco can lock up the number two seed in the NFC with a win. St. Louis is the worst team in the league. No contest. Winner: 49ers
Lions at Packers
Green Bay is the better team, but they have absolutely nothing to gain here. I expect to see very little of Aaron Rodgers in this game. A Detroit win can help them avoid a trip to New Orleans or San Francisco in the first round of the playoffs. I have not picked against the Packers once this season. Until now, that is. Winner: Lions
‘skins at Eagles
No playoffs for either one of these teams. Philadelphia can at least finish 8-8, and improve upon its dismal home record. Winner: Eagles
Bills at Patriots
New England can wrap up the number one seed in the AFC with a win. Buffalo is coming to the end of season of massive disappointment. Winner: Patriots
Panthers at Saints
This is one of the tricky ones. Carolina is an extremely dangerous team on offence, and Cam Newton has shown that he is not a player who accepts losing happily. New Orleans could grab the number two seed in the NFC, but only in the unlikely event that the 49ers lose to the Rams. Another motivating factor for the Saints is Drew Brees’s hold on the record for passing yards in a season. Tom Brady could overtake Brees with a strong performance, but only if Brees plays sparingly. The Saints are clearly the better team here, but Sean Payton would be crazy to play his starters for too long in a meaningless game, right? Aye carumba! Winner: Panthers
Colts at Jaguars
Two teams with nothing to play for, unless of course you buy into any of the foolishness about Indianapolis wanting to lose in order to secure the number one pick in the draft. Players don’t lose on purpose, and people who root against the teams for which they profess to be fans are idiots. Having said that, the Colts have been playing much better since benching the putrid Curtis Painter. Plus, Indy’s starting QB Dan Orlovsky’s wife had triplets this week, so I’m sure that he’ll just enjoy being out of the house for a while. Winner: Colts
Bears at Vikings
When I think of how horribly wrong Chicago’s promising season has gone, it makes me sad. The Bears have not won a game since Jay Cutler’s injury. I have a good feeling about them this week, though. Winner: Bears
Jets at Dolphins
New York needs to win to have a chance to make the playoffs, while Miami, although they are out of the playoff picture, would like to spoil the Jets’ chances. I was set to pick the Dolphins, until I heard that Reggie Bush has been ruled out for the game with an injury. That, plus the loss of T Jake Long will give the Jets just the edge they need to win a close one. Winner: Jets
Steelers at Browns
The Steelers can grab the number two seed with a win and a Ravens’ loss, and could even move up to the number one seed if the Pats lose. That should be enough to propel them past Cleveland. Winner: Steelers
Ravens at Bengals
There’s lots at stake here. The Ravens could lock up the number two seed in the AFC with a win, and could move up to number one with a Pats loss. However, if Baltimore loses, they could drop to the fifth seed if Pittsburgh wins. For the Bengals, a win puts them in the playoffs, and would finally give them a win against one the top teams in their division (they’re 0-3 against the Steelers/Ravens this season). I don’t trust the Ravens here. They’ve come up small in these types of situations time and again this season. Winner: Bengals
Chargers at Raiders
The Raiders need to win to have a shot at the playoffs, while the Chargers are out. It’ll be a battle. Winner: Raiders
Buccaneers at Falcons
Atlanta still has a shot at the five seed. Regardless, Tampa Bay is no match for them. Winner: Falcons
Chiefs at Broncos
A Denver win puts them in the playoffs. Chiefs QB (and Broncos’ cast-off) Kyle Orton would love to knock Denver out of the playoffs, but he won’t. Denver got rid of him for a reason. Winner: Broncos
Seahawks at Cardinals
These two teams made a heck of a run at the playoffs in the second half of the season, but fell a bit short. Seattle is the better team, and will close out the season on a high note. Winner: Seahawks
Cowboys at Giants
The NFL made a great decision by flexing this game into the Sunday night slot and making it the final game of the season. This is the least-complicated matchup of the week, in that the teams are competing against each other not only in the game, but for their playoff lives as well, as they are playing for the NFC East title and the last possible playoff spot. The one thing that Dallas absolutely must do is stop Giants’ WR Victor Cruz, as the rest of New York’s receiving corps have been inconsistent (particularly Hakeem Nicks, who has shown a propensity to drop passes at key moments). These teams match up well, but, unfortunately for the Cowboys, they are at an extreme disadvantage in one key area. No, I’m not talking about Tony Romo, who is playing extremely well. In a game like this, a team needs coaches that the players can trust to make competent decisions, and who will make the necessary adjustments to give their team the edge they need to pull out the victory. Poor Jason Garrett has done poorly in clutch situations this season, and this, plus having Jerry Jones constantly hanging over his shoulder, has shaken his confidence. Also, Rob Ryan gets way too much credit for the Cowboys’ defensive successes; he’s vastly overrated as a coach. Tom Coughlin is a cool customer who makes in-game adjustments as well as any coach in the league. That should be the difference in this game. Winner: Giants
Thanks to everyone who took the time to check out my football columns this season. It’s been fun. Enjoy the last week of the season, and be sure to check out my playoff picks.
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