Well, folks, we’ve got one interesting slate of games this weekend, with four games that all look like they could go either way. A month ago, I’m not sure anyone could have predicted some of these matchups: the team that couldn’t do anything right on defence for half the season that got hot because of its defence playing the team that could have wrapped up home-field advantage weeks ago; a rematch from last week, where the home team would probably be on a bye this week were it not for a mistake made by an unqualified scab referee that a crew of unqualified scabs, with the benefit of replay, couldn’t sort out; last season’s worst team playing on the road against a team with an inferior record, even though the home team started out 9-2; and a game featuring two rookie starting QBs, where the home team was the last in the NFL to qualify for the playoffs, and is playing host to a team with a superior record.
Welcome to Wild Card Weekend in the NFL!
Welcome to Wild Card Weekend in the NFL!
"Remember last year when they had a first round bye? Trust me, they'll thank me later."
Saturday
Bengals at Texans
These are two teams which are remarkably similar on defence. They both rely on a great pass-rush, solid linebacker play, and strength in the secondary. The difference here lies in what they can do with their secondary. The Texans rely on top CB (and former Bengal) Jonathan Joseph to neutralize opponents’ top receiver and plan around this, while the Bengals’ depth in terms of quality players in the secondary allows them to stop pass-heavy game plans and frees up personnel to focus on the run. The situation that this creates is one where each defence is very well-suited to handle the other team’s offensive strength. The Bengals’ offence relies heavily upon the ability of Andy Dalton to get the ball into the hands of top offensive threat AJ Green, but Joseph and the Texans’ pass rush (ever heard of a guy named JJ Watt?) are the perfect antidote to this approach. The Texans’ attack is more balanced, with a steady (though unspectacular) running game, and a passing scheme which spreads the wealth, which means that, likewise, the Bengals’ defence matches up well in terms of personnel. And so, it comes down to intangibles. On offence, the Bengals will have to rely on strong run-blocking in order to give BenJarvus Green-Ellis a chance to make the significant gains needed to sustain drives. The Texans will rely heavily on Arian Foster, both in the running and passing game. Barring turnovers, this should be a close game, and in a close game, you need your skill players to make plays when it counts. Did you know that in spite of the fact that he has been in the league since 2004, has been a starter for six seasons, and has played in well over 100 games, Matt Schaub will be starting his first playoff game? Andy Dalton started a playoff game last year in his first season. When it comes right down to it, Dalton to AJ Green is scarier than Schaub to Andre Johnson. Winner: Bengals
Vikings at Packers
The Vikings beat the Packers last week in a game that they had to win just to make the playoffs. The Vikes got a spectacular game from Adrian Peterson, but they got that as well in their earlier loss to the Packers. The key to the Vikings’ win last week was QB Christian Ponder, who has struggled for much of the season, but who played well last week. The Vikings strength is in being able to have Peterson carry the offence, while their defence keeps them in it. The Packers scored 34 points last week against the Vikings. This is typical for the Packers when Aaron Rodgers plays as well as he did. The Vikings’ 37 points, on the other hand, were an anomaly. Last week was the Vikings’ playoffs. I do not expect this game to be close. Winner: Packers
Sunday
Colts at Ravens
I don’t quite know what to make of this Colts team. I’ve watched them play. They’re so-so. How they finished 11-5 is a real head-scratcher for me. Andrew Luck is amazingly talented, an absolute joy to watch. He can also be a bit of a train-wreck at times, a real turnover machine. The Ravens finished 10-6 after starting 9-2, and if that’s not an indicator of a serious problem, then I don’t know what is. Their defence has been wracked with injuries all season, and their offence is led by the inconsistent Joe Flacco—I don’t give a crap about statistics, just watch the guy. Ray Rice is going to have to be the difference-maker in this one. That should be enough. Winner: Ravens
Seahawks at Washington (DC)
This is the toughest game to call for me. The Seahawks look like the better team to me. They have the better record. They beat the Pats, the Pack, the ‘niners. There’s just something about them I don’t like. They just seem lucky to me. That fiasco against Green Bay. Their top CB doesn’t get suspended because of some mistake at a drug-testing lab. They lack depth at wideout. I’ve seen Sir Robert Griffin the Third play, and he is scary-good. Washington has the complimentary running game and defence to hang in against the Seahawks. I expect a tight game, and when that happens, go with the team with the best player. Winner: Washington (DC)
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