Last week: 7-9
Final regular season total: 172-84
I finished.
When I started out doing this weekly picks column, my goal was to do one every week of the season, and to keep track of how well I did. It wasn’t easy some weeks, what with travelling, family illnesses, holidays, and whatnot, but I met my goal. Along the way, probably at about the midpoint of the season, I started to wonder, “How am I doing?”
So, the first thing I did was I headed on over to the Sports Illustrated website to check out Peter King. King writes the popular “Monday Morning Quarterback” column, which I have been reading for years, and he does picks every week as well. As luck would have it, he kept track of his progress in his picks column, so it was easy for me to compare. I was pleasantly surprised to find that I was only a few games behind him.
As the season progressed, I kept up with King’s picks, and found other “experts” who posted picks online. I looked at Mike Florio and Gregg RosenthaI at ProFootballTalk, as well as the crew at ESPN; Eric Allen, Mike Golic, Merril Hoge, Ron Jaworski, Chris Mortensen, Adam Schefter, Mark Schlereth, and Seth Wickersham. I guess my expectation was that I would find someone who was doing so well that it would make me look like an idiot, but I never did. What I found was that I was actually doing pretty well by comparison.
Overall, I am pretty pleased with my results. I had a lot of fun writing the column. Who knows, maybe I’ll do it again next season. In the meantime, I plan on continuing to write throughout the playoffs. Before I get to my picks for the Wild Card Round, here are the final picks totals for the experts who I mentioned:
Peter King: 164-92
Mike Florio: 162-94
Gregg Rosenthal: 169-87
Eric Allen: 165-89
Mike Golic: 161-95
Merril Hoge: 162-93
Ron Jaworski: 155-85 (Does not pick for Monday Night Games)
Chris Mortensen: 155-101
Adam Schefter: 158-98
Mark Schlereth: 167-89
Seth Wickersham: 167-89
Here are my picks for the first round:
Saturday Games
Bengals at Texans
This is a battle between two evenly-matched teams that both have something to prove. Cincinnati enters the playoffs with the reputation of not being able to beat good teams. Houston limped into the playoffs both figuratively, having lost its last three games, (including week 16 to the Colts), and literally, losing several key players for the season due to injuries, and with its most dangerous offensive player hobbled. Coincidentally, the last time these two teams met was Houston’s last victory, as they came from behind to beat Cincinnati in a close game. I give the Texans a slight advantage on defence, although the Bengals are certainly no slouches in that department. The key to this matchup will be quarterback play. Andy Dalton is better than T.J. Yates. However, Houston’s running game is a great equalizer, and will take some of the pressure off Yates. Under normal circumstances, I would say that Andre Johnson would be the difference maker here, helping to elevate Yates’s play. The problem, though, is that Johnson has been hampered by multiple injuries this season, and is not in the type of shape which will allow him to take over a game. This will be another close game. Andy Dalton’s rapport with his talented young receivers will be the deciding factor. Winner: Bengals
Lions at Saints
Yes, there will be a lot of points scored in this game. With two 5000-yard passers playing in a domed stadium, what else would you expect? Ironically enough, it will be defence that determines the winner here. Detroit is strong on its defensive line, but thin at linebacker, and especially thin in the secondary. Also, they do extremely poorly against teams that run the ball effectively, which the Saints do. Drew Brees gets rid of the ball quickly and is incredibly accurate, which will negate Detroit’s front-four pressure. New Orleans does a good job of pressuring the passer through creative blitzing. Detroit does not run the ball much or well, and this will allow New Orleans to key on stopping the pass. With all of the offensive numbers that this game should produce, it will be decided by one team being able to slow down the offensive onslaught of the other team enough to give them an edge. New Orleans has a better chance of doing that. If you’re looking for another indicator of the Saints’ potential success, here is a factor to consider: In their previous meeting this season, the dirty (yes, they are dirty) Saints were able to goad the Lions into several retaliatory penalties. This Detroit Lions’ team is not known for its discipline. Winner: Saints
Sunday Games
Falcons at Giants
The tendency here might be to see this as a matchup between a superior team that has to play on the road against a team that sneaked into the playoffs as the beneficiary of playing in a weak division, and therefore to pick the “better team” to win. I don’t buy it. I think that this is a bad matchup for Atlanta. The Falcons want to be a high-scoring team, where Matt Ryan throws the ball deep to his talented outside receivers a lot, but this would be a deadly mistake against a Giants team that is rushing the passer as well or better than any team in the league. The Giants are a team that can score a lot of points, and quickly, when Eli Manning is clicking well with his receivers. The Falcons won’t be able to score enough to keep up, and if they try to rely on a pass-heavy attack, Matty Ice is going to get crushed. Winner: Giants
Steelers at Broncos
Ah, the joys of NFL playoff seeding, where a 12-4 team has to play on the road against an 8-8 team. Despite the discrepancy in their records, Denver does have a slight chance in this one. Ben Roethlisberger is still hobbling. Mobility is one of the keys to Big Ben’s success, and the Denver pass rush is its greatest defensive strength. If Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller can keep the pressure on and perhaps force some turnovers, then they can keep the score low. The problem is the Denver offence, and how it matches up with Pittsburgh’s defence. Not having to contend with Ryan Clark is definitely to Denver’s advantage, but the main concern, as I see it, is that inevitably, Tim Tebow is going to have to throw the ball. Tebow has been a turnover machine of late. Between the Steelers’ blitzing schemes, and Troy Polamalu spying Tebow in the secondary, this game could get ugly in a hurry. Denver has to force turnovers, and avoid them, to have a chance. Having said that... : Winner: Steelers
Final regular season total: 172-84
I finished.
When I started out doing this weekly picks column, my goal was to do one every week of the season, and to keep track of how well I did. It wasn’t easy some weeks, what with travelling, family illnesses, holidays, and whatnot, but I met my goal. Along the way, probably at about the midpoint of the season, I started to wonder, “How am I doing?”
So, the first thing I did was I headed on over to the Sports Illustrated website to check out Peter King. King writes the popular “Monday Morning Quarterback” column, which I have been reading for years, and he does picks every week as well. As luck would have it, he kept track of his progress in his picks column, so it was easy for me to compare. I was pleasantly surprised to find that I was only a few games behind him.
As the season progressed, I kept up with King’s picks, and found other “experts” who posted picks online. I looked at Mike Florio and Gregg RosenthaI at ProFootballTalk, as well as the crew at ESPN; Eric Allen, Mike Golic, Merril Hoge, Ron Jaworski, Chris Mortensen, Adam Schefter, Mark Schlereth, and Seth Wickersham. I guess my expectation was that I would find someone who was doing so well that it would make me look like an idiot, but I never did. What I found was that I was actually doing pretty well by comparison.
Overall, I am pretty pleased with my results. I had a lot of fun writing the column. Who knows, maybe I’ll do it again next season. In the meantime, I plan on continuing to write throughout the playoffs. Before I get to my picks for the Wild Card Round, here are the final picks totals for the experts who I mentioned:
Peter King: 164-92
Mike Florio: 162-94
Gregg Rosenthal: 169-87
Eric Allen: 165-89
Mike Golic: 161-95
Merril Hoge: 162-93
Ron Jaworski: 155-85 (Does not pick for Monday Night Games)
Chris Mortensen: 155-101
Adam Schefter: 158-98
Mark Schlereth: 167-89
Seth Wickersham: 167-89
Here are my picks for the first round:
Saturday Games
Bengals at Texans
This is a battle between two evenly-matched teams that both have something to prove. Cincinnati enters the playoffs with the reputation of not being able to beat good teams. Houston limped into the playoffs both figuratively, having lost its last three games, (including week 16 to the Colts), and literally, losing several key players for the season due to injuries, and with its most dangerous offensive player hobbled. Coincidentally, the last time these two teams met was Houston’s last victory, as they came from behind to beat Cincinnati in a close game. I give the Texans a slight advantage on defence, although the Bengals are certainly no slouches in that department. The key to this matchup will be quarterback play. Andy Dalton is better than T.J. Yates. However, Houston’s running game is a great equalizer, and will take some of the pressure off Yates. Under normal circumstances, I would say that Andre Johnson would be the difference maker here, helping to elevate Yates’s play. The problem, though, is that Johnson has been hampered by multiple injuries this season, and is not in the type of shape which will allow him to take over a game. This will be another close game. Andy Dalton’s rapport with his talented young receivers will be the deciding factor. Winner: Bengals
Lions at Saints
Yes, there will be a lot of points scored in this game. With two 5000-yard passers playing in a domed stadium, what else would you expect? Ironically enough, it will be defence that determines the winner here. Detroit is strong on its defensive line, but thin at linebacker, and especially thin in the secondary. Also, they do extremely poorly against teams that run the ball effectively, which the Saints do. Drew Brees gets rid of the ball quickly and is incredibly accurate, which will negate Detroit’s front-four pressure. New Orleans does a good job of pressuring the passer through creative blitzing. Detroit does not run the ball much or well, and this will allow New Orleans to key on stopping the pass. With all of the offensive numbers that this game should produce, it will be decided by one team being able to slow down the offensive onslaught of the other team enough to give them an edge. New Orleans has a better chance of doing that. If you’re looking for another indicator of the Saints’ potential success, here is a factor to consider: In their previous meeting this season, the dirty (yes, they are dirty) Saints were able to goad the Lions into several retaliatory penalties. This Detroit Lions’ team is not known for its discipline. Winner: Saints
Sunday Games
Falcons at Giants
The tendency here might be to see this as a matchup between a superior team that has to play on the road against a team that sneaked into the playoffs as the beneficiary of playing in a weak division, and therefore to pick the “better team” to win. I don’t buy it. I think that this is a bad matchup for Atlanta. The Falcons want to be a high-scoring team, where Matt Ryan throws the ball deep to his talented outside receivers a lot, but this would be a deadly mistake against a Giants team that is rushing the passer as well or better than any team in the league. The Giants are a team that can score a lot of points, and quickly, when Eli Manning is clicking well with his receivers. The Falcons won’t be able to score enough to keep up, and if they try to rely on a pass-heavy attack, Matty Ice is going to get crushed. Winner: Giants
Steelers at Broncos
Ah, the joys of NFL playoff seeding, where a 12-4 team has to play on the road against an 8-8 team. Despite the discrepancy in their records, Denver does have a slight chance in this one. Ben Roethlisberger is still hobbling. Mobility is one of the keys to Big Ben’s success, and the Denver pass rush is its greatest defensive strength. If Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller can keep the pressure on and perhaps force some turnovers, then they can keep the score low. The problem is the Denver offence, and how it matches up with Pittsburgh’s defence. Not having to contend with Ryan Clark is definitely to Denver’s advantage, but the main concern, as I see it, is that inevitably, Tim Tebow is going to have to throw the ball. Tebow has been a turnover machine of late. Between the Steelers’ blitzing schemes, and Troy Polamalu spying Tebow in the secondary, this game could get ugly in a hurry. Denver has to force turnovers, and avoid them, to have a chance. Having said that... : Winner: Steelers
RSS Feed