I’ll dispense with the theatrics, and get right to this week’s picks:
Saturday
Saints at 49ers
Many thousands of words have been written this week, and many statistics have been presented illustrating how this is a classic matchup between a high-powered offence and a dominating defence. And why not? That’s the marquee attraction of this game. I won’t go into it too deeply, as I’m sure you’ve already heard enough about it. Here’s my simple take on the matchup: the Saints are too talented on offence to be completely shut down, and the 49ers (with help from Candlestick Park—New Orleans has proven to be significantly less potent on grass this season) are too deep and healthy on defence to get blown out. The Saints will score, probably in the mid-to-high 20s. The real question is, “Can San Francisco score enough to keep up?” The Saints have a good, but not great, defence. The 49ers rely on a ball-control offence, with a strong running game and a QB who plays conservative, mistake-free football. The problem with San Francisco is, as efficient as their offence is, they don’t score touchdowns nearly often enough. Their kicker, David Akers, set the single-season record for field goals this season, primarily because the 49ers’ red-zone offence was so terrible. Settling for field goals will not get it done against New Orleans. Winner: Saints
Broncos at Patriots
I watched the Broncos-Steelers game last week, and, while tremendously exciting, it was also a bit baffling. Essentially, Pittsburgh’s defensive game plan was to allow Denver to do the only thing it could do to keep pace offensively, that being, to throw the ball down the field and make big plays. As I wrote last week, I expected Troy Polamalu to be used to spy on Tim Tebow in the secondary, because I figured that with his quickness and ability to read plays, he would be able to negate Tebow’s ability to make plays in the passing game, and perhaps generate some turnovers. Instead, Pittsburgh utilized Polamalu primarily as a run-stopper. The Steelers have a very potent offence, so I thought that it would have been in their best interest to force the Broncos into using their plodding, run-oriented offence which, though at times is very effective, does not produce a lot of points. Why mention any of this? I don’t think that New England will have very much trouble scoring in this game, and I think that if they learned anything by watching Broncos-Steelers last week, it would be to not allow Tebow opportunities to make big plays in the passing game. The Pats should be content to let the Broncos plod down the field and kick field goals all day. With New England scoring touchdowns on their drives, the end result will be decisive. Winner: Patriots
Sunday
Texans at Ravens
The Houston Texans this season have been like the Black Knight from “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.” They keep getting their limbs hacked off, and yet they still keep fighting on (Mario Williams? ‘Tis but a scratch. Matt Schaub? Just a flesh wound...). They have a chance in this one. If their defence can keep the score close and force some turnovers, and Andre Johnson and the rest of Houston’s receiving corps can stretch the field so that Arian Foster has a great game, then they definitely could pull an upset. I don’t see it happening, though. Baltimore can generate enough of a pass rush, and they are deep in their secondary, both of which should be able to nullify the Texans’ passing game. As a result, the Ravens’ linebackers should be able to commit to stopping the run. All that Baltimore has to do is play efficiently on offence, not trying to do too much, and avoid turnovers, and they should be fine. Joe Flacco worries me, though. If he plays poorly, this game could end up being a lot closer than it should be. Winner: Ravens
Giants at Packers
I’ve been hearing all week about how the Giants have the formula for beating the Packers, how their pass rush will force Aaron Rodgers into making mistakes, how New York is peaking at just the right time, just like when they beat New England in the Super Bowl a few years back. What a crock. The Giants’ strong finish consisted of beating a few so-so teams (Cowboys, Jets), and getting their asses handed to them by Washington. Last week, they beat an overrated and poorly coached Atlanta Falcons team, and now everyone wants to tell me that they’re going to beat Green Bay this week. Oh yeah, right, the Green Bay Packers. You remember them, don’t you? They went 15-1 this season. They rested their best players in a meaningless week 17 game against the Lions, and still won. Aaron Rodgers is going to light the Giants’ secondary up like a pinball machine. Oh, sure, Eli Manning and company will score some points too, and it will sure be fun to watch. In the end... Winner: Packers
Saturday
Saints at 49ers
Many thousands of words have been written this week, and many statistics have been presented illustrating how this is a classic matchup between a high-powered offence and a dominating defence. And why not? That’s the marquee attraction of this game. I won’t go into it too deeply, as I’m sure you’ve already heard enough about it. Here’s my simple take on the matchup: the Saints are too talented on offence to be completely shut down, and the 49ers (with help from Candlestick Park—New Orleans has proven to be significantly less potent on grass this season) are too deep and healthy on defence to get blown out. The Saints will score, probably in the mid-to-high 20s. The real question is, “Can San Francisco score enough to keep up?” The Saints have a good, but not great, defence. The 49ers rely on a ball-control offence, with a strong running game and a QB who plays conservative, mistake-free football. The problem with San Francisco is, as efficient as their offence is, they don’t score touchdowns nearly often enough. Their kicker, David Akers, set the single-season record for field goals this season, primarily because the 49ers’ red-zone offence was so terrible. Settling for field goals will not get it done against New Orleans. Winner: Saints
Broncos at Patriots
I watched the Broncos-Steelers game last week, and, while tremendously exciting, it was also a bit baffling. Essentially, Pittsburgh’s defensive game plan was to allow Denver to do the only thing it could do to keep pace offensively, that being, to throw the ball down the field and make big plays. As I wrote last week, I expected Troy Polamalu to be used to spy on Tim Tebow in the secondary, because I figured that with his quickness and ability to read plays, he would be able to negate Tebow’s ability to make plays in the passing game, and perhaps generate some turnovers. Instead, Pittsburgh utilized Polamalu primarily as a run-stopper. The Steelers have a very potent offence, so I thought that it would have been in their best interest to force the Broncos into using their plodding, run-oriented offence which, though at times is very effective, does not produce a lot of points. Why mention any of this? I don’t think that New England will have very much trouble scoring in this game, and I think that if they learned anything by watching Broncos-Steelers last week, it would be to not allow Tebow opportunities to make big plays in the passing game. The Pats should be content to let the Broncos plod down the field and kick field goals all day. With New England scoring touchdowns on their drives, the end result will be decisive. Winner: Patriots
Sunday
Texans at Ravens
The Houston Texans this season have been like the Black Knight from “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.” They keep getting their limbs hacked off, and yet they still keep fighting on (Mario Williams? ‘Tis but a scratch. Matt Schaub? Just a flesh wound...). They have a chance in this one. If their defence can keep the score close and force some turnovers, and Andre Johnson and the rest of Houston’s receiving corps can stretch the field so that Arian Foster has a great game, then they definitely could pull an upset. I don’t see it happening, though. Baltimore can generate enough of a pass rush, and they are deep in their secondary, both of which should be able to nullify the Texans’ passing game. As a result, the Ravens’ linebackers should be able to commit to stopping the run. All that Baltimore has to do is play efficiently on offence, not trying to do too much, and avoid turnovers, and they should be fine. Joe Flacco worries me, though. If he plays poorly, this game could end up being a lot closer than it should be. Winner: Ravens
Giants at Packers
I’ve been hearing all week about how the Giants have the formula for beating the Packers, how their pass rush will force Aaron Rodgers into making mistakes, how New York is peaking at just the right time, just like when they beat New England in the Super Bowl a few years back. What a crock. The Giants’ strong finish consisted of beating a few so-so teams (Cowboys, Jets), and getting their asses handed to them by Washington. Last week, they beat an overrated and poorly coached Atlanta Falcons team, and now everyone wants to tell me that they’re going to beat Green Bay this week. Oh yeah, right, the Green Bay Packers. You remember them, don’t you? They went 15-1 this season. They rested their best players in a meaningless week 17 game against the Lions, and still won. Aaron Rodgers is going to light the Giants’ secondary up like a pinball machine. Oh, sure, Eli Manning and company will score some points too, and it will sure be fun to watch. In the end... Winner: Packers
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