No underdogs this year. No Wild Cards. No weak division winners. No “undeserving” teams. No sixth seeds; not even a fifth, fourth, third, or lowly second. Nothing but number ones invited to this shindig. The NFL’s two top teams, both of which beat their stiffest competition in their respective conference championship games. High-powered offence vs. punishing defence. Record-setting QB and receivers vs. the top defensive secondary.

Welcome to the greatest Super Bowl matchup of all time.

It doesn’t feel like it, though. At least not to me.

Where’s the controversy. The drama. The HYPE! Did I miss it?

The biggest story in the lead up to the big game was Richard Sherman, after his outburst on live TV immediately following the Seahawks’ victory over their hated rival the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. However, the whole controversy devolved into abject stupidity, at which point sanity somehow prevailed and the story fizzled.

Lemme ‘splain… no, there is too much… Lemme summup:

Richard Sherman is a jerk because he gave a choke sign to an opponent then yelled at a pretty, mentally-challenged girl holding a microphone but we don’t know what the other guy said about him so maybe he was justified and isn’t this criticism really just racism and Sherman isn’t really a bad guy I mean how could he be he went to Stanford and got a degree in communications and everything and you don’t know the real guy and there’s two sides to him and you really just need to get to know “Stanford Richard Sherman” because college-educated equals class and intelligence and hey did you read the column he wrote in Peterland and blah blah blah blahblahblah………………….

Oh, and Marshawn Lynch hates reporters and likes Skittles. That should describe everyone, really.

Boring.

Richard Sherman is a physically-gifted, hard-working athlete. He is a very good football player. He may very well be a drug cheat, but I have no proof of that. Off the field, I don’t care a whit about what he does. On the field, he is a jerk. He is a trash-talker. He likes to show-up opponents. He likes to disrespect opponents. He represents everything that is good and bad about the game itself, and therefore everything I like and dislike about it.

That’s enough about that. It’s time to talk about the game.

NFL Championship Game

Seahawks at Broncos, Snoopy Stadium, New Joisy, USA

These two teams are really evenly-matched. Picking a winner is tough, kind of like guessing which of two Sean Bean characters would win a fight to the death. To me, it’s simple. It’s all about the QBs. No matter what kind of offence you run, no matter your team’s strengths, tendencies, talents, it all begins with the man behind center. He touches the ball on every play. He runs the show. He has to make some plays. Maybe a lot, maybe a whole lot. Russell Wilson is undeniably talented. He has a strong arm. He’s smart. He’s quick. He can make plays with his feet, scrambling, buying time, avoiding pressure, or just running with the ball. He can also make mistakes. He’s young. He most likely still hasn’t fully absorbed the magnitude of this game.

This really is Peyton Manning’s season. He has been getting ready for this game all year. He’s a machine, a cyborg, the Quarterbot 18. He’s the computer who wore cleats. Yes, the Seahawks’ defence is deep, talented, well-coached, hard-hitting, and prepared. How prepared can you be, though, against a player who is playing the game on as high a level as Peyton is now? As good as the Seahawks are, they have to react to Peyton and his offence. Peyton gives so many looks, knows so many wrinkles, has an unparalleled command of the game, sees things so well. When I’ve watched him this season, especially against New England in the AFC Championship, he looked like the only player on the field. And by that, I mean that the other players, on both teams, were merely pieces in a game he was playing by himself. He’s that locked in.

That’s how I see this game. Make no mistake; this Seahawks defence is everything it’s advertised to be, and they will make it extremely challenging for Manning to do the things he wants to do. The going will not be easy for the Broncos offence. Manning’s pieces, and he has some really great pieces (not a pawn in the bunch) will have to execute against a defence that will push them, challenge them, punish them, even hurt them. Peyton will do his thing. This is the ultimate challenge, and he loves it.

The key to the Seahawks’ chances is Russell Wilson. Seattle’s defence will do everything it can to give Wilson the chance to make the plays he needs to make to win. He won’t be up to the challenge. It’s no knock on him.

There’s no shame in not being Peyton Manning, unless you are Peyton Manning.

Oh, and I’m rooting for Champ Bailey in this one. Guy needs a ring.

Seahawks 23, Broncos 30

Or, as my friend Chad might say, “Who ya got?”

(And… that’s it. I had planned a much longer intro, but, life’s like that sometimes. Enjoy the games, folks. Should be a couple of doozies. –G)

AFC Championship

Patriots at Broncos

This is Peyton Manning’s year, the year where it all came together for him on offence. You could make a very strong case that he has never had this much depth at the receiver positions, but perhaps his single greatest asset was versatile back Knowshon Moreno, who rushed for over 1000 yards and 10 TDs, caught another 60 balls, and is a good blocker. With all the weapons at his disposal, Manning led a record-breaking attack. You don’t stop this Broncos offence. You have to limit its chances. This Patriots team has more depth and talent in its secondary than it has had in quite some time, including some ball-hawks who have shown a knack for making QBs and receivers pay for mistakes. This will prove invaluable, as the Pats need to focus on getting pressure on Manning and limiting Moreno. Another key to limiting the Broncos’ offensive effectiveness will be the Pats’ ability to move the ball, control the clock, score points, and keep Manning off the field. Much has been said about the emergence of LeGarrette Blount. He is ridiculously fast and agile for a 250-pound man, the perfect back making the most of a great opportunity, operating behind great blocking, in an offence run by an all-time great QB, and with plenty of depth behind him at the running back position. Not only are the Broncos not a good defensive team, but they don’t really excel in any particular area. This Pats’ offence should have little difficulty controlling the tempo of the game. In the end, it will come down to execution. I have to look at the players on both sides. This may not be Peyton Manning’s year after all. Winner: Patriots

NFC Championship

49ers at Seahawks

When I look at these two offences, I see a lot of similarities. Both feature strong line play, powerful running backs, and mobile QBs. The 49ers have an advantage in terms on their receiving corps; WRs Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis are better than anything that the Seahawks have at their disposal. At RB, I’d take Marshawn Lynch over Frank Gore. I also like Russell Wilson a bit better than Colin Kaepernick at QB, simply because I think Wilson is smarter and less likely to make mistakes. Everyone knows that these are two of the best defensive teams in football, so how do the defences match up against the offences they have to face? The Seahawks’ secondary may be the best in the NFL, a physical group that covers well. If Kaepernick doesn’t get the looks he likes on passing downs, he is quick to resort to running. Seattle’s secondary allows them to game plan for this eventuality, as well as to devote the necessary personnel to stopping Frank Gore. The key to San Fran’s defensive strategy has to be stopping Marshawn Lynch. Their strength at the defensive line and LB positions will help them tremendously, and will force Wilson to make more plays to keep the Seahawks’ offence moving. I believe that Wilson is up to the task, and that he will be helped by facing a 49ers secondary that does not cover well. Again, it’s about execution. In a close game, in the sonic crucible of CenturyLink Field, I’ll take Russell Wilson over Colin Kaepernick. Winner: Seahawks

A real football fan enjoys the game, and doesn’t need a lot of hype to get excited. For the casual fan, the media always has an angle. For a lot of games, if you’ve been watching football long enough, you can almost predict what the story will be before the hype even begins.

Take Peyton Manning for example. If his team is playing, and the forecast calls for cold weather, what are you going to hear about? If you said, “Peyton Manning can’t win in the cold,” or something like that, then you’ve been paying attention. Is it true? I don’t know. You can bet, however, that whoever is doing the talking will have statistics, those double-agents that lie for both sides, to back them up.

Me, I go by what I see. Streaks and ancient history don’t mean a lot to me. I stick with what I know, and, when it comes to Peyton Manning and cold weather, I only know two things.

The first has to do with last season’s AFC Divisional Playoff Game, played between the Broncos and Ravens in frigid conditions at Mile High Stadium. As the game wore on, Manning looked progressively worse. His passes seemed to lack the zip he had displayed throughout the season. Toward the end of the 4th quarter, the Broncos passed up an opportunity to drive to score the winning points in regulation, choosing instead to take their chances in overtime. During the coin toss before the extra session, Manning looked visibly miserable. Granted, this was Manning’s 17th game of a season in which he came back after multiple neck surgeries and a year away from the game. Manning has been phenomenal this season, and thus far has shown no signs of slowing down.

The other thing I know is something that I only discovered this week, and it is significant. Whatever you or I or the media think about the cold weather issue ultimately means nothing. However, what Manning thinks is another matter, and now I know that it bothers him. Listen to this short clip (specifically, from 0:38 to 1:10) from an interview with Manning after his Broncos whipped the Titans 51-28. When the subject is broached, he immediately becomes flustered and shows a bit of an edge. I was surprised by this. I’m used to Peyton the QB machine, the computer in cleats. As much as he might want people to believe that it doesn’t bother him, as much as he wants to believe it himself, his instinctive, unguarded reaction is very telling.

Will this become an issue in the playoffs? Manning has performed extremely well in the cold at Mile High this season. However, the Broncos’ upset loss to the Chargers this past Thursday handed control of the top AFC seed race to the New England Patriots. Foxborough, especially in the playoffs, is a whole different kind of cold for Manning. It’s in his head. I know it now.

So, what are the other stories in Week 15? Here’s my take. No hype required.

 

Texans at Colts

Can the Colts regain the early-season form that had them looking like world-beaters, before injuries brought them crashing down, in time for the playoffs? Lately, there seems like no better cure for a team’s woes than to play the Texans. Winner: Colts

49ers at Buccaneers

Can the 49ers stave off the hard-charging Cardinals and make it back to the playoffs? Tampa will be a tough test, especially for a San Francisco team travelling clear across the country. The ‘niners need to keep their edge over Arizona, lest their Week 17 face off become a winner-take-all affair. Winner: 49ers

Seahawks at Giants

Will we be seeing this Seahawks team in New Jersey again in February? Seattle has the inside track for the top seed in the NFC, and are extremely tough to beat at home. The disappointing Giants are playing out the string. Winner: Seahawks

Eagles at Vikings

Are the Eagles poised to take the NFC East title? Philly currently holds a one game lead over Dallas. The Vikings may be without Adrian Peterson this week. Either way, I don’t think it matters. Winner: Eagles

Bills at Jaguars

If they decided not to play this game at all, would it matter? I mean, both teams are 4-9. They could simulate it on a video game, or play board games or something. It would save wear and tear on the players’ bodies. Haven’t there been enough injuries this season? Tie

Bears at Browns

Can Jay Cutler lead Chicago to a division crown? Somehow (OK, the Lions helped a lot) the Bears are still in the hunt for the NFC North title. They’ll be facing a Browns team coming off a “What just happened?” loss to New England. Winner: Bears

Patriots at Dolphins

Can Miami improve its playoff chances while taking a huge Dolphin-crap on the gift the Chargers handed the Pats by beating the Broncos? New England has been in this position before; win out, and the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxborough. Winner: Patriots

Washington at Falcons

How will Washington react to the RGIII shutdown? Really, Kirk Cousins starting at QB is the only thing keeping this game from being relegated to the same status as the Bills/Jags clash. I’m going with the new blood. Winner: Washington

Chiefs at Raiders

Can the Chiefs stay healthy enough for a good run at the playoffs? Realistically, KC has no chance to catch Denver for the division lead, as the Broncs finish their season against Houston and Oakland. I still say that, healthy, this Chiefs team is a nightmare matchup for anyone in the playoffs, particularly with its top pass rushers in top form. Winner: Chiefs

Jets at Panthers

How will the Panthers bounce back after a tough loss to the Saints? Carolina will be just fine, thanks. As for Geno Smith, well, I envision a slew of turnovers, leading to an ugly loss. Winner: Panthers

Cardinals at Titans

Can the surging Cardinals keep pace with the 49ers? All Arizona can do at this point is handle their own business and hope for some help from one of San Fran’s opponents. Winner: Cardinals

Saints at Rams

Can the Saints make the Super Bowl without winning the NFC number one seed? Though the Saints are iffy on the road, this game’s in a dome, against an offence with not nearly as much firepower. Potential playoff destination Seattle will not be nearly as accommodating. Winner: Saints

Packers at Cowboys

Can the Cowboys catch Philadelphia in the NFC East Race? Is there any point to Aaron Rodgers playing again this season? Whichever team loses here is surely out of playoff contention. The Dallas defence will once again be without Sean Lee, so Tony Romo et al will have to shoot it out. I like their chances. Winner: Cowboys

Bengals at Steelers

Has everyone forgotten about the Bengals, and do they prefer it that way? Cincy seems to be peaking again at just the right time. How sweet would it be to drive the final (steel) nail into the coffin of Pittsburgh’s season? Winner: Bengals

Monday Night

Ravens at Lions

Are the Ravens going to be around to defend their title? If Detroit blows the NFC North, how many Lions will be arrested in the offseason? Ravens in a big, nationally-televised game vs. Lions in a big, nationally-televised game. Never go against your core beliefs. Winner: Ravens (Loser: Lions)

My wife, a big-time Pats fan, showed me this video of Tom Brady “miked” during last week’s game against the Saints. I’m usually loath to link to videos from the NFL website, due to the ads, but I recommend this one. Whether you love or hate the Pats, you should respect what Brady has done and continues to do for that team. He’s been given a tough assignment this season, with so many changes in offensive personnel, and he’s handled the situation like a champ.



Bills at Dolphins

I’m still a bit skeptical about the Dolphins’ offence, due to their seeming inability to run the ball or protect Ryan Tannehill. Miami needs to get after Bills’ QB Thad Lewis hard, make him uncomfortable, force some miscues. Should be a close one. Winner: Dolphins



Patriots at Jets

Give Rex Ryan some credit; he began the season with a team on the low end of the talent scale, with a quarterback situation no coach would envy, and he went back to basics of running the ball on offense and stopping the run on defence. Ryan’s counterpart this Sunday, Bill Belichick, has had different challenges. After the offseason purge of, essentially, all of Tom Brady’s top (consistently healthy) receivers (and that other unpleasantness), he began the season with a team loaded with talent on defence, and with deep running attack to support Brady as he acclimated his new receivers to the Pats’ system. However, New England enters Week 7 with an uncertain future, without its three key players on defence; defensive line anchor and run-stopping vortex Vince Wilfork, defensive captain and tackling machine Jerod Mayo, and shut down CB Aqib Talib. (Don’t get too caught-up in the Gronkowski will-he-or-won’t-he talk; Belichick’s saving Gronk for a playoff run.) This should be a hard-fought, close contest. I think the Pats win, based on their advantages in the passing and kicking game. Winner: Patriots



Cowboys at Eagles

If you’re looking for scoring, this should be the game you want to watch, featuring two teams that move the ball quickly on offence but don’t stop anyone on defence. Philly is at a distinct advantage due to its vast superiority on the ground. Winner: Eagles



Rams at Panthers

The Rams scored an impressive win against a Houston team that failed to execute in any facet. Panthers’ coach Ron Rivera has promised a new, more aggressive approach on offense (it’s like he suddenly woke up and realized that he has a dynamically talented QB, talented RBs, and a veteran, playmaking WR, and that offence should be proactive). Factor in a tough Carolina defence, and you’ve got an easy win. That is, if you trust Rivera. I’ll give him a shot Winner: Panthers



Chargers at Jaguars

The Jags gave a good effort against Denver last week. Back to reality. Winner: Chargers



Buccaneers at Falcons

Tampa may be a disappointment this year, but not nearly to the extent that Atlanta has. The Falcons began the season as contenders for one of the top seeds in the NFC, but now they sit at 1-4, ravaged by injuries, with virtually no hope of even making the playoffs. I guess I’ll pick nothing to lose against no hope. Winner: Buccaneers



Bears at Washington

RGIII is starting to run more and more as the weeks go by, which makes him a very dangerous opponent. Unfortunately, if he continues to be such an inaccurate passer, he’s going to end up just like Michael Vick does every season: injured. Chicago’s offence should have little trouble scoring points against Washington’s defence. Winner: Bears



Bengals at Lions

Cincy should be able to generate enough QB pressure without committing extra personnel, so they can devote more attention to not getting beaten by Megatron. The Bengals definitely have the playmakers to go toe-to-toe with anyone, especially with the emergence of rookie RB Gio “Storm” Bernard. Winner: Bengals



49ers at Titans

So, Jake Locker’s back this week for the Titans. That makes this game very interesting. Before Locker’s injury, his solid play, along with Tennessee’s vastly improved defence, made them force to be reckoned with. San Fran is in for a tough test this week. Colin Kaepernick has been talking this week about how Tennessee passed on drafting him in 2011. Between that, and admitting that he gets motivation by reading bad things that people post on Twitter about him, I think he’s got rocks in his head. That’s a lot of negativity, dude. Join a yoga class or something. Arian Foster can probably hook you up. Winner: Titans



Browns at Packers

The Green Bay offence is dealing with some injuries at WR, but Aaron Rodgers is playing really well right now, and it appears he finally has a running game to shoulder some of the offensive load. Winner: Packers



Ravens at Steelers

Pittsburgh’s defence looked decent as the team picked up its first win of the season against the Jets. The Ravens have a bit more talent, but their offence has been inconsistent. Expect another close, heated contest in another installment of one of the NFL’s most heated rivalries. Winner: Ravens



Texans at Chiefs

Have the Texans hit rock bottom yet in this nightmare season? They looked about as bad as a team can look last week. Case Keenum starts in place of injured Matt Schaub at QB, and he couldn’t have asked for a tougher assignment that the KC defence in mega-loud Arrowhead. The nightmare continues, as dreams of a Super Bowl must seem a lifetime ago for the Texans. Winner: Chiefs



Broncos at Colts

Forget all the hoopla surrounding Peyton’s return and Colts’ owner/town half-wit Jim Irsay’s typically asinine comments about Manning. This is the best team that Denver has played so far this season, and that’s the real story. Sure, Indy lost on Monday night the San Diego. I watched that game. Andrew Luck looked sharp, but the Colts had numerous drives killed by untimely and uncharacteristic drops. Maybe they were guilty of looking past the Chargers. Who can say? If Indy’s defence can get a few stops, Luck and Co. are more than capable of keeping up against a bad Denver defence. Broncos’ OLB/Cheating Asshole Von Miller makes his return from his too-short suspension. I expect him to have about as much of an impact as he did against Baltimore in last year’s playoffs. Winner: Colts



Monday Night

Vikings at Giants

My buddy Vince pointed out to me that this is, apparently, the worst matchup in Monday Night Football history. Both teams are playing so badly that it’s difficult to pick a winner. That Coughlin mystique makes me lean towards the Giants at home. However, they have so many injuries to overcome, Brandon Jacobs being one of the most recent (a big blow to their already depleted running game). Do they just let Eli air it out and go for the shootout win? That’s fine in theory, but they can’t seem to protect Eli and he looks lost this year. The answer here lies with newly-acquired Vikings’ QB Josh Freeman. Freeman is talented, but his game suffered tremendously as a result of the way he was treated by the coaching staff in Tampa. I imagine he must be feeling pretty spectacular being out of that mess. Winner: Vikings

It’s Thanksgiving weekend north of 45 (or, in my case, about 40km south of 45), and I have a great many things for which to be thankful:

 I am thankful that I live in a country where, as we in Nova Scotia demonstrated last week, I can participate in free elections to choose my government. I am also thankful to live in a country where a person can choose not to vote at all (even though I believe that that is wrong).

I am thankful that I have the opportunity to write this column, and I am thankful that people read and enjoy it (and sometimes give me feedback… comments always welcome… follow me on Twitter @GFHowie).

I am thankful that I have some of the best friends in the whole world. Seriously, I would stack my friends up against anyone else’s ( Some of my friends might even enjoy being stacked against others, kind of like human Jenga… who am I kidding… they would LOVE it!)

I am thankful for my two intelligent, talented, beautiful, daughters, who bring me so much joy and aggravation (but mostly joy).

And I am especially thankful for my wife. Words cannot adequately describe everything she means to me.

Now that that’s of of the way, let’s dispense with the sap. There’s football to be played.

Packers at Ravens

Looking ahead, I was feeling pretty good about picking the Packers in this one, but without Clay Matthews, I’m a lot less sure. I’m counting on Aaron Rodgers and his cadre of talented receivers to come up with a superior effort against a Ravens team that has its own division race to worry about, and will be playing hard. Expect this one to still be a game in the 4th. Winner: Packers

Panthers at Vikings

I’m starting to wonder if Carolina would do better if its horrendous coaching staff were kidnapped just before kickoff. They sure have the talent on offence, but it’s being stunted by poor decision-making on the sidelines. If this ends up being a tight contest, as I expect it will, I like Adrian Peterson to carry the team on his back to victory like he did so many times last season. Peterson’s playing with a heavy heart this week, and I for one will be rooting for him. Winner: Vikings

Eagles at Buccaneers

Since I have no faith in Tampa right now, and I know that Philly can move the ball, I know which way I have to go. Winner: Eagles

Raiders at Chiefs

Though I have openly expressed my admiration for Terrelle Pryor in previous columns, he managed to impress me even more in beating the Chargers last week in a very special “NFL After Dark” presentation. Pryor’s maturation process continues this week as he faces a buzzsaw Chiefs defence in noisy KC. Pryor is in for one heck of a ride. Winner: Chiefs

Bengals at Bills

Cincy, fresh from shutting down Tom Brady, face the slightly less experienced Thad Lewis at QB for the Bills this week. Now, in a very winnable road game, is not the time for a Bengals letdown/meltdown. Winner: Bengals

Rams at Texans

Here’s the cold, hard truth: Matt Schaub’s psyche must be so fragile right now that I would not be surprised by anything at this point. Houston’s defence should be able to overwhelm Captain Checkdown (aka Sam Bradford), but, if Schaub starts throwing touchdowns to the Rams’ gambling secondary, is there a point where JJWatt and Co. start questioning just what in the hell they’re killing themselves for? I think Schaub’s threshold for benching in this game is very low. Still, I have to go with the better team, playing at home. I imagine that this is what Texans’ head coach Gary Kubiak must feel like now, giving Schaub another chance. Winner: Texans

Lions at Browns

Any time you watch Detroit play, you get a real appreciation for how important Calvin Johnson is to everything they do on offence. Johnson is in phenomenal shape, plays hard, consistently wins one-on-one battles, and demands opposing defences’ constant attention. In Megatron’s absence from the lineup last week, the Detroit offence managed only 9 points against a Packers team that in previous weeks had given up 34 points to the Bengals, 20 to Washington, and 34 to the 49ers. Not to put too fine a point on it, but Johnson will either be playing hurt, or not at all, against a really good Cleveland defence. Also of note: for all his shortcomings, Browns’ QB Brandon Weeden has been really careful with the ball this season. Winner: Browns

Steelers at Jets

As much as I may dislike admitting it, that Rex Ryan sure is one hell of a coach. The Jets’ defence is playing extremely well, which takes a lot of pressure off the offence and rookie QB Geno Smith. At home, against a struggling Pittsburgh team, that’s a formula for success. Winner: Jets

Jaguars at Broncos

This game features the Jacksonville Jaguars, an NFL team, against the Denver Broncos, another NFL team. Winner: Broncos

Titans at Seahawks

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. the 12th Man. Oh, and the Seahawks are pretty good, too. Winner: Seahawks

Saints at Patriots

Here we go with the “Patriots don’t lose two in a row” crap again. With the loss of DT Vince Wilfork, the Pats are suddenly soft against the run. Subtract DT Tommy Kelly, and the Pats are potentially heading towards getting blown out at home by Drew Brees and the high-powered Saints offence. Winner: Saints

Cardinals at 49ers

Arizona’s defence is pretty decent, but on the whole, San Fran is just a better team, playing at home. Winner: 49ers

Washington at Cowboys

I know what happened when Dallas played Denver last week; two teams with so-so defences and great QBs with lots of weapons at their disposal went toe-to-toe in a thrilling display of offensive firepower. Denver won, Dallas lost. End of story. Anyone who says otherwise is selling something. Putting aside all the jibber-jabber about heartbreak and letdowns and whatnot, what we have in this game is a Cowboys team that is in first place in its division, playing at home against a Washington team with a really horrendous defence. Anyone who says otherwise is selling something. Winner: Cowboys

Monday Night

Colts at Chargers

Okay, I believe. I believe in the Colts. I believe in their defence. I believe in their coaching staff. I’ve always believed in Andrew Luck. I believe. Winner: Colts

 

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

(Note: After being implored by a reader to post my picks earlier, I actually started writing this on Friday. However, life and family duty intruded, and I had to make a sudden unexpected trip to Cape Breton. I arrived back home at around 1am Sunday, and stayed up all night finishing this sucker. This one’s for you, Paul.)

(Another note: If you're so inclined, you can follow me on Twitter: @GFHowie) 

 Well, I made it all the way to Week 4 without one of those idiots getting to me.

I try. I mean, I really try to focus on the game. Unfortunately, I like to keep up on things, which means I have to make forays into the mainstream media to look for information. And that’s when, invariably, I see something that pisses me off.

One of the fairly recent developments in the NFL that I really like is the fact the mechanisms that the league put in place to limit rookie salaries. I watched for years as high draft picks signed progressively more ridiculous contracts, guaranteed bonuses in the tens of millions of dollars, plus salaries that often eclipsed those of proven NFL veterans, based on college statistics, and without ever having played a down of professional football.

So, you can well imagine how frustrated I was to read this post by Mike Florio on NBC’s PFT. Specifically this paragraph:

It’s believed that the 2011 rookies who have become great players will be lining up at their owners’ doors, demanding the money that was kept from them by a system aimed at keeping windfalls from going to incoming players who never earn it.  From Panthers quarterback Cam Newton to Bengals receiver A.J. Green to Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson to Falcons receiver Julio Jones to Texans defensive lineman J.J. Watt, guys taken at the top of the draft two-plus years ago will want next year what they should have gotten in the first place.

The phrases “…kept from them…” and “…what they should have gotten in the first place,” indicates clearly that Florio would be much more comfortable with a system that awards multi-million dollar guarantees to college superstars like Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Vernon Gholston, and Matt Leinart. Or, you know, you could endorse the current system which makes players earn the big contracts. All of the players mentioned on the excerpted paragraph have earned the opportunity to sign a big contract due to superior play at the pro level. If anything, the new rookie salary scale motivated them, rather than hindered them. Florio’s failure to understand this is baffling, but is indicative of a streak of arrogance which has pervaded his site since he sold out to NBC and became a blow-dried TV talking head. Case in point: in the very next paragraph of the same post, he makes this statement:

While there’s no disputing that Broncos linebacker Von Miller and 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith are among the best defensive players in the league, off-field issues could make their teams more reluctant to make a gigantic financial investment in them after only three seasons.

No disputing, eh. Well allow me to retort. Aldon Smith is in rehab, because he’s an idiot millionaire drunk driver, and will not be playing for a while. He may not even play again this season, if Uncle Roger steps up and makes the example out of him that the league sorely needs. Von Miller hasn’t played at all this season. He was suspended for six games; four is the standard for violating the league’s drug policy, plus they tacked on an extra two games because he attempted to cheat the drug testing procedure (Aside: It’s been alleged that Miller conspired with someone from the drug testing company to beat the test; if this is true, Miller should be suspended indefinitely, and should have to apply to the league for reinstatement.). Anyway, my point is this: how can you be “among the best” anything in the NFL if you’re not playing. Smith and Miller are criminals. Besides that, they’re selfish; their actions have hurt their respective teams. Are they talented? Sure. Fat lot of good that’s doing the 49ers and Broncos right now. Sitting on my couch watching the games this week, I guarantee you I will have just as many sacks and tackles as both Smith and Miller put together. Football, Florio; you remember football, don’t you? It’s played on a field.

Colts at Jaguars

Indianapolis is coming off a HUGE road win against San Francisco, and would be prime pickings if they were playing a competent team. Alas, it’s just the Jags. Winner: Colts

Seahawks at Texans

If you had asked me three weeks ago, I’d have said that this would be a titanic struggle, and that the Texans would prevail at home. However, after watching Houston’s offence struggle mightily as the team squeaked out wins against the Colts and the Chargers , then lost to the Ravens, I’m seriously starting to question whether the Texans are the contenders I thought they’d be this season. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have lived up to and beyond expectations thus far. If they can win against a tough opponent on the road, they will become the NFC’s frontrunner for certain. Winner: Seahawks

Ravens at Bills

Buffalo is coming off a horrible performance on the road against the Jets, where they lost in spite of the fact that New York was penalized (this is not a misprint) 20 times for 168 yards! CJ Spiller is banged-up, and isn’t a lock to play this week. EJ Manuel is talented, but erratic. The defence is a mess. Baltimore’s offence showed some signs of life last week against Houston. That’s bad news for the Bills, especially considering how much better the Ravens’ defence has looked on a week-to-week basis. Winner: Ravens

Bengals at Browns

Cincy is coming off a big win against the Packers. Sure, it was a sloppy, turnover-filled affair, but a comeback from 16 points down in a game where you give up 30 consecutive points to a top team is impressive no matter how you do it. Travelling to Cleveland has the whiff of “trap game” all over it. Sudden genius Marvin Lewis should have his Bengals ready. Winner: Bengals

Cardinals at Buccaneers

So, “As Tampa Turns” continues. In this episode, QB Josh Freeman gets benched for rookie Mike Glennon. The Cardinals got thumped by New Orleans last week, but the Bucs sure ain’t the Saints. Winner: Cardinals

Steelers at Vikings (In Jolly Old England)

Pittsburgh showed a bit of life against Chicago last week before turnovers did them in. Ben Roethlisberger got a little careless with the ball, and I bet he’s pretty pissed at himself. The Vikes gave up 31 points to the Brian Hoyer-quarterbacked Browns. Matt Cassel gets the start at QB for Minnesota this week. Also key is the fact that this is not a true home game for the Vikings; they'd probably do better in one of the Scandinavian countries. Winner: Steelers

Giants at Chiefs

Sure, there are lots of fans rooting for terrible teams, but is there anything quite as exquisite as the agony that Giants’ fans must be feeling about now? I mean, they expect their team to be good, and they are just absolutely horrible. Not that the Carolina Panthers aren’t a talented team, but 38-0! Now the turnover-prone Gothamites have to go into one of the loudest barns in the league to face a legitimately good defence and a QB who does not turn the ball over. I’m just sayin’… Winner: Chiefs

Bears at Lions

Chicago handled these guys last year, earning the season sweep. The Bears are better this year, particularly in pass protection, which is bad news for the Lions, who have a strong pass rush, but have not improved appreciably anywhere else on defence. Detroit’s offence upgraded slightly with the acquisition of Reggie Bush, but he’s less than 100%. Also, #2 wideout Nate Burleson is out, putting the focus of Detroit’s offence on, surprise surprise, Megatron. The Bears handled him pretty well last year, too. Winner: Bears

Jets at Titans

I’m starting to believe in the Tennessee renaissance (Tennessance?), especially after they pulled one out against San Diego last week. I still believe in the Jets. Believe that they’re terrible, that is. Winner: Titans

Washington at Raiders

I’d be comfortable picking Oakland if I knew that Terrelle Pryor was healthy. I really like this kid. I watched the Monday nighter against the Broncos; Pryor was under intense pressure all night, but he hung in and kept his cool. Pryor has a lot of talent and a good attitude. I hope, for the sake of Raider fans that he gets developed properly. They can build around this guy. This game sucks. Winner: Washington

Eagles at Broncos

As intrigued as I am about how Philly’s offence matches up against Denver, I still don’t think the Eagles will quite be able to keep up with the Broncos’ offence, which is quickly moving towards juggernaut status. Winner: Broncos

Cowboys at Chargers

Are either of these teams any good? Based on what I’ve seen of them thus far, neither is a contender. I’m basing this pick on the Cowboys’ big win last week against St. Louis. I had the distinct displeasure of watching the Rams’ putrid offence in action this past Thursday, and going from Sam Bradford to Philip Rivers could be a bit of a shock to the Dallas defence. Winner: Chargers

Patriots at Falcons

This looks like a bad matchup for Atlanta right now. New England doesn’t have to crowd the box to stop the run, allowing them to focus on pass defence. Pats CB Aqib Talib is big and physical enough to handle Falcons WR Julio Jones with Safety help over the top, which is easier to provide consistently when Roddy White is less than 100%. This game will be won or lost based on how much progress Tom Brady has made with his new young receivers. The injury-depleted Falcons’ defence should give Brady the time and space he needs. Winner: Patriots

Monday Night

Dolphins at Saints

This is another game where I’m more focused on who isn’t playing than who is. Star Miami DE Cameron Wake will either be playing hurt, or not at all, and getting pressure on Drew Brees is imperative for any defensive unit that wants to stop the Saints’ offence. I might have been tempted to pick the Dolphins here, but not without a healthy Wake. Winner: Saints

So, the Jets, who I picked to earn the first pick in next year’s draft, picked up a victory in week one over a team I predicted would be much improved, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New York achieved this feat in notable fashion, winning dramatically 18-17 via a late 48 yard field goal, in rookie QB Geno Smith’s first NFL start. These Jets might be better than I thought. They might be able to give the banged-up Patriots a game on Thursday night.

Whoa. Not so fast.

That the Jets even had the opportunity to attempt the winning 48 field goal was only due to the Bucs’ Lavonte David hitting Geno Smith out of bounds and incurring a 15-yard penalty. Tampa Bay played horribly, particularly QB Josh Freeman, and for the past couple of days, I’ve been reading stories coming out of Tampa that the Buccaneers are a team in turmoil. I don’t know how much is true, but most of the talk seems to centre on Freeman and Tampa Bay head coach Greg Schiano: the players don’t like Schiano; Freeman has been late for team functions; Freeman missed the team picture; the players voted for their team captains, and Freeman was not chosen, as he had been the past three seasons; Schiano has it in for Freeman; Schiano rigged the captaincy vote… and on and on.

Kind of makes the Jets’ win seem somewhat less impressive.

In my season preview, I wrote about the challenges facing New England on offence this season. Tonight, the Pats face a few extra ripples, as they will be without 100-yard rusher Shane Vereen, who had surgery on his injured hand, and will likely be without WR Danny Amendola as well. Still, New England should have enough healthy bodies on offence to get the job done. Meanwhile, the Pats’ defensive depth in the front seven will ensure that they have enough fresh players to handle the Jets on a short week. I’m hoping for a decisive Jets defeat. As anyone who reads me regularly knows, I can’t stand the Jets, and I especially despise Jets fans. Like the ones who would allow their child to behave like this in public.

People like this should be disappointed, often, and in the worst possible way.

Go Pats!

As my lead-in for The Best Championship Sunday Picks in the World, I’m going to take a quick look back at some notes I made following last week’s action. I had planned on doing a divisional wrap-up column this week, but my work schedule, some other personal matters, and my affinity for naps when the weather is cold left me precious little time. So, just what was I thinking following the games last weekend?

·         Some may wonder whether I stand firmly behind my picks when I make them, especially on a weekend when I go 1-3 (Thank you, Tom Brady… the NFL thanks you too—more on that later). Well, let me put it this way: I never regret my picks. One of the reasons I love the NFL is that the games are not played on paper, and there are so many unforeseeable intangibles, that the games always hold some kind of excitement due to the many scenarios that can unfold. That’s why a team that looks as unbeatable as the Pats do right now can get beaten by a team like the Arizona Cardinals. Or, to put my faith in my picks another way, I missed out on a $137.00 parlay because the Packers failed to cover against the 49ers (that’s right, I live in Canada, haven of legal sports betting).

·         Elvis Dumerville and Von Miller: Where were you guys? You came up really small in a really big game where one big play on defence could have made the difference.

·         I was a little surprised when the Broncos decided to play it conservatively at the end of the 1st half and not attempt to score, but when they got the ball back at the end of the 4th with 2 timeouts left and a chance to win the game, and I was excited to see some Manning magic, I was speechless when they chose to kneel and go to OT.

·         I couldn’t help wondering, as I watched Manning throw the ball without much zip, whether he regretted choosing a cold-weather team like Denver. One of the hallmarks of his successful Indianapolis teams was that, due to them playing in the AFC South, and having their home games in a dome, they never had to play many cold-weather games. That was before Manning’s neck surgeries. In Indy, home field advantage was a big deal, as it kept Manning from playing road games in ungodly-cold places like Foxborough and Heinz Field. In Denver, home field turned out to be a disadvantage.

·         That tableau during the coin toss: talk about a picture being worth a thousand words. There’s Manning, head down, looking absolutely miserable, while Ray Lewis, head held high, is muttering what I can only guess is some sort of prayer. I was ready to call the game for the Ravens right there.

·         Aaron Rodgers played a good game, not great, but good enough to win, against a really tough defence. As I was watching him try to buy time and find open receivers, this was my overriding thought: Tom Brady has Aaron Hernandez (and occasionally, Rob Gronkowski); Matt Ryan has Tony Gonzalez; Colin Kaepernick has Vernon Davis; Joe Flacco has Dennis Pitta; Tony Romo has Jason Whitten; Drew Brees has Jimmy Graham, and; Phillip Rivers has Antonio Gates. Aaron Rodgers, the best QB in the NFL, is stuck with an under-achieving, butterfingered whiner like Jermichael Finley. I hope the Pack upgrades the TE position in the offseason.

·         I thought that Green Bay’s defence seemed woefully unprepared for the eventuality that Kaepernick might run the ball effectively, which is one of the upgrades in the ‘niners’ offence since the switch from Alex Smith at QB. Then I read that, according to Charles Woodson, who I had expected to have a huge role in limiting Kaepernick’s effectiveness, the Packers’ defence weren’t prepared to stop the San Fran QB’s running. Stunning.

·         Between Woodson’s assessment of his own team’s lack of preparedness, and the Broncos’ inability to stop the brilliant Baltimore offensive strategy of “let Joe Flacco drop back and throw the ball as far as he can,” I’d have fired both Green Bay’s and Denver’s Defensive Coordinators .

·         Say what you want about the Seahawks-Falcons game, but the real disappointment for me was in the fact that Pete Carroll and his coaching staff cost his team a victory they earned through superior effort. First, Seattle got put in a hole due to some highly questionable play-calling on a couple of red zone trips in the 1st half. Then, there’s Carroll’s abject failure to understand basic psychology at the end of the 4th. OK, so let me get this straight: You're playing against a team that has a history of choking in the playoffs. You've just come back from being down 20 points, twice, to take a 1 point lead with 31 seconds left in the game. You've watched as your opponent has failed to be able to move the ball when it counts after being able to move it well during most of the game, while their defence all of a sudden can't stop you. Your opponent, the one with a history of choking, playing in front of a stadium full of nervous fans who have watched them choke again and again in big games, is choking again in a big game. You have now forced this team into a situation where they have to try a last-ditch, win-or-lose, 49-yard field goal. As a coach, you think that the best strategy is to give the obviously nervous opposing kicker a practice kick? Mind-boggling.

·         I love seeing LB Rob Ninkovich, special-teams player made good, playing such a key role for the Pats. He’s one of those “big plays when it counts” type of players that led the Pats to three Super Bowl wins in four years, like Mike Vrabel. When I heard it mentioned during last week’s telecast that Ninkovich used to play TE, I couldn’t help envisioning him catching a TD pass in the Super Bowl.

·         Speaking of the Super Bowl, on a weekend where the playoffs lost both Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning, the NFL must be relieved that Tom Brady is still around. A Patriots-49ers Super Bowl is probably the game the league is hoping for right now.

·         Aqib Talib: another Belichick windfall. He’s an extremely talented player, big, athletic, and physical enough to cover any team’s best receiver. Talib loves playing for the Pats; being around so many quality, character players, and in an environment where winning is an attitude, he probably feels like he’s been rescued from himself.

·         Lots of Pats fans mourning the loss of Gronkowski for the rest of the playoffs. I say it’s a blessing. It’s time for the Pats to seriously think about moving on, without Gronkowski. Healthy, he’s the best TE in football. However, he’s the porcelain TE, like fine China; valuable, breaks too easily, and once broken, is useless. Or, as my wife, a huge Pats fan (who can’t stand Gronkowski because of his fragility) says, “He’s like that person you work with who’s sick all the time, so everyone else ends up picking up the slack.”

·         No tears for Pats fans, please. Brady still has Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, Ridley, Vereen, Branch, and Lloyd. They’ll be better than fine.

·         And speaking of Brandon Lloyd, I am sick of hearing about what a disappointment he’s been this season. Anyone who thinks that either doesn’t watch the games (I do), relies too much on statistics (I don’t), or listens to too many talking heads on TV or too much talk radio (please). All season, Lloyd has been there, working hard, making highlight-reel sideline catches, and being a team player. He’s always a threat to beat you deep, which allows Brady more leeway to work the ball underneath, sideline, cross, seam, etc., plus Lloyd helps open up more space for the Pats’ resurgent running game. Tell me this, Pats fans: would you rather have a guy who whines because he doesn’t get the ball enough (there are lots of those in the league)?

·         More Lloyd: What exactly was the deal with that flag for tossing the ball to the official too hard? No more playoff games for you, zebra. You’re much too sensitive.

Before I get to my picks, I would be remiss if I didn’t take the opportunity to call out, yet again, my favourite target, Peter King of Sports Illustrated. King has always curried favour with the league and its players. He has also devolved into a bully who takes potshots at the weak while ignoring his cronies and buddies. Case in point: In his December 31st MMQB, when discussing Vikings coach Leslie Frazier’s approach to Adrian Peterson’s pursuit of the single-season rushing record, King took a shot at basketball player Nykesha Sales, referencing her as an example of a record that was achieved under dubious circumstances. He did this in a week where more than one NFL defender had a legitimate chance of breaking the single-season sack record, which was achieved when King favourite Brett Favre took a dive to allow Michael Strahan to get the record-breaking sack.

The bogus way in which the sack record was set, it being an NFL record, was the obvious and relevant example to use here, yet King chose to malign a female hoops star who, by all accounts, has never harmed anyone. Now, this would be fine, except that King, who was allowed ample access to Favre during his playing career by the player himself, can’t seem to go more than a couple of weeks without mentioning his old pal. Don’t believe me? In last week’s MMQB, King mentions the retired Favre twice, including writing about a text message that Favre sent to Ryan Longwell, who had just been signed by the Seahawks due to an injury to their kicker (I sincerely hope that Favre refrained from including a dick-pic… old habits die hard, after all). I called King on his cheap shot at Sales on his Twitter. I told him he had a lot of nerve, that he was still kissing Favre’s butt, and that he was a bully. He did not respond. I despise Peter King. A once competent football writer, he has morphed into a media personality, doing televised spots on NBC Sunday night telecasts, and promoting fellow NBC employees like former independent-turned sellout Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk. You should check out King’s MMQB Tuesday Edition, where he answers cherry-picked reader e-mails. It’s pathetic.

Well, how’s that for an intro? Now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, let’s get down to business.

49ers at Falcons

First, I have to talk about the very recent controversy surrounding top 49ers’ receiver Michael Crabtree, who was questioned by San Francisco’s Special Victims’ Unit regarding an allegation of sexual assault last week. According to reports, Crabtree is with his team in Atlanta, and, having not been charged, faces no sanction by the league. I did come across this quote, by ‘niners’ Safety Donte Whitner, which piqued my interest:

(Coach Harbaugh) said that we can do anything in the world and we can come and talk to him and he’ll forgive us except put our hands on women. If you put your hand on a woman then you’re done in his book. So other than putting your hands on women, you can do anything and come talk to him, and it’s true. Open-door policy. Everybody around here really likes him and we want to win for him and for ourselves.

So, here I am, ready to pick the 49ers, by a comfortable margin, and this happens. Is it a big deal? I honestly don’t know. Harbaugh wants to win. Crabtree is a huge part of what the 49ers want to do on offence. Does he play? How much? What’s his mentality going into the game? How do his teammates look at him? So many questions.

This is how I see the game.

The Falcons are a different team on offence this season. WR Julio Jones has made a huge impact. Jones, playing opposite the immensely talented Roddy White, with ageless wonder Tony Gonzalez at TE, has made this Falcons offence much more dangerous than in past seasons. The 49ers counter with a well-balanced defence, capable of rushing the passer, with the LB depth to prevent huge running plays, and talented and hard-hitting Safeties to shore up both the run and pass defence. That’s a great matchup. I anticipated the 49ers utilizing TE Vernon Davis to great effect; he has been an afterthought on offence since Kaepernick took over at QB, and Davis’s athleticism will be a strength against the Falcons. Without a doubt, Atlanta will be prepared for Kaepernick’s running. The Falcons also have some dangerous ball-hawks in the secondary. This game has the potential to be much closer than I had initially anticipated. The effect of each of the teams’ previous games is a wash, psychologically. The Falcons won a highly emotional game against the Seahawks, pulling out the game in dramatic fashion, and supplying Matt Ryan, and amazingly Tony Gonzalez, with their first-ever playoff victory. The expected letdown from such a game is equaled in effect by the ease with which the 49ers dispatched the Packers, because easy wins have a tendency to soften a team’s resolve. In cases such as both of these teams face, focus is the key to recovery. The Falcons are on a mission, seeking respect, underdogs at home. The 49ers have had this unexpected distraction introduced into their preparations. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but, with so many unanswered questions, I have to go with my gut. Winner: Falcons

Ravens at Patriots

No surprises here, thank goodness. I promise you, the Pats are relieved that Gronkowski is a non-factor; he was in the lineup last week, got hurt, and the offence barely missed a beat. This week, the Pats can gameplan without thinking about Gronkowski at all. And believe me, they are not short of options for Tom Brady. The Ravens will key on Wes Welker, and rightfully so, but he’s impossible to cover with one player; he requires help when he runs those short, sharp routes. So, either the Ravens do what it takes to stop Welker, and they allow Brady free reign to hit one of his myriad other options, or they let Welker kill them slowly. The Ravens will play hard on defence, inspired by their leader Ray Lewis, but they just don’t have the personnel to stop the many-headed Patriots attack. On offence, the Ravens have Ray Rice, and that’s significant. The Pats will bottle Rice up, keep him from getting big gains. Meanwhile, the New England secondary, much more flexible since the acquisition of Aqib Talib, will work to prevent the types of big gains in the passing game that doomed the Broncos last week. On both sides of the ball, this is not a good matchup for Baltimore. Winner: Patriots