A real football fan enjoys the game, and doesn’t need a lot of hype to get excited. For the casual fan, the media always has an angle. For a lot of games, if you’ve been watching football long enough, you can almost predict what the story will be before the hype even begins.

Take Peyton Manning for example. If his team is playing, and the forecast calls for cold weather, what are you going to hear about? If you said, “Peyton Manning can’t win in the cold,” or something like that, then you’ve been paying attention. Is it true? I don’t know. You can bet, however, that whoever is doing the talking will have statistics, those double-agents that lie for both sides, to back them up.

Me, I go by what I see. Streaks and ancient history don’t mean a lot to me. I stick with what I know, and, when it comes to Peyton Manning and cold weather, I only know two things.

The first has to do with last season’s AFC Divisional Playoff Game, played between the Broncos and Ravens in frigid conditions at Mile High Stadium. As the game wore on, Manning looked progressively worse. His passes seemed to lack the zip he had displayed throughout the season. Toward the end of the 4th quarter, the Broncos passed up an opportunity to drive to score the winning points in regulation, choosing instead to take their chances in overtime. During the coin toss before the extra session, Manning looked visibly miserable. Granted, this was Manning’s 17th game of a season in which he came back after multiple neck surgeries and a year away from the game. Manning has been phenomenal this season, and thus far has shown no signs of slowing down.

The other thing I know is something that I only discovered this week, and it is significant. Whatever you or I or the media think about the cold weather issue ultimately means nothing. However, what Manning thinks is another matter, and now I know that it bothers him. Listen to this short clip (specifically, from 0:38 to 1:10) from an interview with Manning after his Broncos whipped the Titans 51-28. When the subject is broached, he immediately becomes flustered and shows a bit of an edge. I was surprised by this. I’m used to Peyton the QB machine, the computer in cleats. As much as he might want people to believe that it doesn’t bother him, as much as he wants to believe it himself, his instinctive, unguarded reaction is very telling.

Will this become an issue in the playoffs? Manning has performed extremely well in the cold at Mile High this season. However, the Broncos’ upset loss to the Chargers this past Thursday handed control of the top AFC seed race to the New England Patriots. Foxborough, especially in the playoffs, is a whole different kind of cold for Manning. It’s in his head. I know it now.

So, what are the other stories in Week 15? Here’s my take. No hype required.

 

Texans at Colts

Can the Colts regain the early-season form that had them looking like world-beaters, before injuries brought them crashing down, in time for the playoffs? Lately, there seems like no better cure for a team’s woes than to play the Texans. Winner: Colts

49ers at Buccaneers

Can the 49ers stave off the hard-charging Cardinals and make it back to the playoffs? Tampa will be a tough test, especially for a San Francisco team travelling clear across the country. The ‘niners need to keep their edge over Arizona, lest their Week 17 face off become a winner-take-all affair. Winner: 49ers

Seahawks at Giants

Will we be seeing this Seahawks team in New Jersey again in February? Seattle has the inside track for the top seed in the NFC, and are extremely tough to beat at home. The disappointing Giants are playing out the string. Winner: Seahawks

Eagles at Vikings

Are the Eagles poised to take the NFC East title? Philly currently holds a one game lead over Dallas. The Vikings may be without Adrian Peterson this week. Either way, I don’t think it matters. Winner: Eagles

Bills at Jaguars

If they decided not to play this game at all, would it matter? I mean, both teams are 4-9. They could simulate it on a video game, or play board games or something. It would save wear and tear on the players’ bodies. Haven’t there been enough injuries this season? Tie

Bears at Browns

Can Jay Cutler lead Chicago to a division crown? Somehow (OK, the Lions helped a lot) the Bears are still in the hunt for the NFC North title. They’ll be facing a Browns team coming off a “What just happened?” loss to New England. Winner: Bears

Patriots at Dolphins

Can Miami improve its playoff chances while taking a huge Dolphin-crap on the gift the Chargers handed the Pats by beating the Broncos? New England has been in this position before; win out, and the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxborough. Winner: Patriots

Washington at Falcons

How will Washington react to the RGIII shutdown? Really, Kirk Cousins starting at QB is the only thing keeping this game from being relegated to the same status as the Bills/Jags clash. I’m going with the new blood. Winner: Washington

Chiefs at Raiders

Can the Chiefs stay healthy enough for a good run at the playoffs? Realistically, KC has no chance to catch Denver for the division lead, as the Broncs finish their season against Houston and Oakland. I still say that, healthy, this Chiefs team is a nightmare matchup for anyone in the playoffs, particularly with its top pass rushers in top form. Winner: Chiefs

Jets at Panthers

How will the Panthers bounce back after a tough loss to the Saints? Carolina will be just fine, thanks. As for Geno Smith, well, I envision a slew of turnovers, leading to an ugly loss. Winner: Panthers

Cardinals at Titans

Can the surging Cardinals keep pace with the 49ers? All Arizona can do at this point is handle their own business and hope for some help from one of San Fran’s opponents. Winner: Cardinals

Saints at Rams

Can the Saints make the Super Bowl without winning the NFC number one seed? Though the Saints are iffy on the road, this game’s in a dome, against an offence with not nearly as much firepower. Potential playoff destination Seattle will not be nearly as accommodating. Winner: Saints

Packers at Cowboys

Can the Cowboys catch Philadelphia in the NFC East Race? Is there any point to Aaron Rodgers playing again this season? Whichever team loses here is surely out of playoff contention. The Dallas defence will once again be without Sean Lee, so Tony Romo et al will have to shoot it out. I like their chances. Winner: Cowboys

Bengals at Steelers

Has everyone forgotten about the Bengals, and do they prefer it that way? Cincy seems to be peaking again at just the right time. How sweet would it be to drive the final (steel) nail into the coffin of Pittsburgh’s season? Winner: Bengals

Monday Night

Ravens at Lions

Are the Ravens going to be around to defend their title? If Detroit blows the NFC North, how many Lions will be arrested in the offseason? Ravens in a big, nationally-televised game vs. Lions in a big, nationally-televised game. Never go against your core beliefs. Winner: Ravens (Loser: Lions)

It’s American Thanksgiving once again. If you watch any amount of TV from the states, you know that this holiday means a lot to our neighbours to the south. It’s that special day when they give thanks for the opportunity to stuff themselves with food until they almost burst, then prepare for the orgy of crass consumerism known as “Black Friday.”

Oh, America. You know I love you. I kid because I love.

For me, and the thousands of Canadians like me (as well as a lot of Americans too), American Thanksgiving means Football with an upper-case “F!”

Now, before I get to my picks, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention my favourite game from week 12: the Buccaneers at Detroit. In my column last weekend, I wrote:


I find it hard to trust the Lions anyway, but as divisional frontrunners, with so much at stake, they’re bound to screw up somehow. Winner: Buccaneers

So, did you watch the game? I did, and I loved every exquisite minute of it. I know that I said that the Lions would find a way to screw up, but I couldn’t have imagined it would be so epic. Matt Stafford threw 4 INTs (including a deadly pick-6 at the end of the first half), and the Lions also had a punt blocked and a weird fumble in the 4th quarter to basically hand the game to the Bucs. Tampa let them hang around, though, refusing to put them away, missing two field goals in the 4th, and allowing Detroit one last drive to tie or win it. And down the field went the Lions, moving into field goal range, but still hoping to keep the drive alive by converting a long 3rd down. So there’s Stafford, under pressure, backpedaling, throwing up a prayer (like he’s done so many times before) to the unstoppable Megatron… and… HE MAKES THE CATCH FOR THE FIRST DOWN!!!

Then he fumbles. The best receiver in the NFL fumbles.

Game over.

The Detroit Lions.

There’s probably not a team in the league I like to root against more. I’ve written about it many times before. Their head coach is dumb, and possibly mentally unbalanced (apparently I’m not the only one who has negative opinions of the guy). Their defensive coordinator is a jerk, and he presides over a collection of the most undisciplined players in the league. And, not to belabour the point (anyone who reads me regularly should know what I think), Ndamukong Suh is a legitimately dangerous individual who may very well have some sort of personality disorder.

The Detroit Lions. There’s no love. I’m not kidding.

Which brings us to:

Packers at Lions

It’s week 13, and the Detroit Lions are the very embodiment of that number; bad luck for themselves, and bad luck for any player who runs afoul of their idiotic defensive front four. Hell, they even have a player, Nate Burleson, who wears number 13. Here they are, with another chance to seize control over the NFC North, against a Green Bay team without Aaron Rodgers. I’m not worried about the Packers’ ability to move the ball on offence; Matt Flynn proved last week that he’s still a capable QB, and he’s back in a familiar system where he has had success in the past. Also, Green Bay’s wonderful rookie RB Eddie Lacy has had an impressive campaign thus far. I’m a bit more worried about Green Bay’s ability to stop the Lions’ offence, especially Calvin Johnson. On paper, this looks like a Detroit victory. I’m basing this pick a bit on hope and a bit on expectation. I hope that the Packers can hang around long enough to get Rodgers back, because it would be a shame to have the league’s best QB sitting at home during the playoffs. I expect the Lions to screw up. Is it too much to ask them to do it so epically three weeks in a row (I didn’t forget the Steelers’ fiasco)? Probably. Still… Winner: Packers

Raiders at Cowboys

I have much less to say about this game. The Cowboys, for all their struggles, are clearly the better team, are playing at home, and are in the thick of the NFC East race. Winner: Cowboys

Steelers at Ravens

Baltimore wins at home, loses on the road. That’s been the pattern. However, with a rivalry like Steelers/Ravens, you can toss that out the window. The Ravens’ offence is bad, particularly the running game. The Steelers, despite a bad start to the season, have turned themselves around and, though not elite, are competitive every week. Right now, Pittsburgh is the better team, and they should be able to grind out a victory to remain in the playoff picture. Winner: Steelers


Happy Thanksgiving to all of my American family, friends, and readers.