Week Five Picks: Meet Mr. Silver

It’s always nice when new people check out my picks. Thanks to loyal reader and friend of the column Paul, who posted a link on PICKWATCH, I had a lot of new people checking me out last week. A few of those people contacted me, which was nice. One person who commented on my Week 3 picks amused me. All the way down in sunny California, this person took the time to type:

“My little 10 yr.old brother pick better than you. You must using head or tail to pick a team.”

(That he wrote this about a week where I was a respectable 10-6, lost one game on a last-second FG and another in OT, and nailed three road underdogs was curious, but I digress…)

Then last week happened: I went 5-8.

Granted, it was a weird week, one where a lot of pro pickers got creamed (And I nailed that Vikings over Falcons “It’s a Trap” game, but I digress…), but still, it got me thinking…

Could a coin pick better than me?

So, I decided to give it a try.

But first, I had to pick a coin. For a serious experiment like this, not any old coin would do. After considering a few options, I finally settled on this, a 1939 Canadian Silver Dollar:

It worked for me for a number of reasons, most notably:

• It’s Silver, just like the Vince Lombardi Trophy
• It’s Canadian, like me
• King George VI is on it (great name!), and the NFL has a burgeoning relationship with England, including a planned commemoration of what I consider to be the most important occasion on the calendar, Remembrance Day, November 11
• The Latin inscription above the Canadian Parliament translates as, “He reigns by the faith of his people,” and I rule
  

So, I gave Mr. Silver three separate cracks at the Week 4 games (Heads for Home, Tails for Visitors), and this was the result:

Giants                                                   Giants                                                   Washington

Bears                                                     Packers                                                 Bears

Bills                                                       Bills                                                       Bills

Colts                                                      Titans                                                    Titans

Ravens                                                 Ravens                                                 Ravens

Jets                                                        Jets                                                        Lions

Buccaneers                                         Steelers                                               Steelers

Dolphins                                              Raiders                                                 Dolphins

Jaguars                                                 Chargers                                              Chargers

Falcons                                                 Vikings                                                 Vikings

Eagles                                                   Eagles                                                   Eagles

Cowboys                                             Saints                                                    Cowboys

Chiefs                                                   Chiefs                                                   Patriots

7-6                                                          6-7                                                          6-7

 

Not great numbers either, maddeningly consistent, slightly better than mine.

So, I’m making this a weekly thing. For the rest of the season, I’m putting my picks against old Mr. Silver. I think I can take him; the NFL has changed a lot since 1939…

Thursday Night

Vikings at Packers

After his scintillating debut on Sunday against Atlanta, I can’t wait to see Teddy Bridgewater in action again. With his ankle sprain, and with his team playing on short rest, I hope for Bridgewater’s sake, and for the sake of the Vikings team and fans (not to mention fans of exciting football) that he does not play tonight. He most likely won’t, which means that a relaxed Aaron Rodgers can take care of business. Winner: Packers

Sunday

Bears at Panthers

Watching Cutler vs. Rodgers reminded me of something familiar. Sometimes when you’re driving a bus, you’re on schedule and everything is fine. Then, you hit a few red lights in a row, and you start falling behind.  Early in the game, the Bears had a drive extended by an extremely questionable call and scored on the drive. Aaron Rodgers went to work, calm and relaxed, handled his business, and brought his team back. Later, the Packers had a couple of bad calls go their way, the Bears had some bad clock management at the end of the first half, and they started falling behind. In the second half, Cutler started forcing things, got impatient, and Chicago got blown out. The reason Rodgers is better than Cutler is poise. When you start falling behind, you keep doing the things you know how to do, you don’t rush, and you don’t panic. That’s why I always finish my shift on time. Having said that, I still like Cutler, I still like the Bears, and I think they come back stronger and wiser this week. Winner: Bears

Browns at Titans

Whether it’s a banged-up Jake Locker or a how-does-this-guy-keep-getting-teams-to-sign-him Charlie Whitehurst behind Center, Cleveland’s defence will do enough to allow Brian Hoyer to get himself a victory and keep his job for another week. Winner: Browns

Rams at Eagles

Despite the puzzlingly inept performance against San Fran last week, I expect Philly’s offence to bounce back this week. Too bad for Rams’ fans: Shaun Hill is healthy again and should start at QB. Me, I liked that Austin Davis kid. He’s a cool customer. Winner: Eagles

Falcons at Giants

Atlanta continues its road swing with a visit to the Meadowlands to take on the once-again resurrected Giants (Honestly, every time I count these guys out, they come back to life like Jason Vorhees and punches my head off... darn you Coughlin!). We all know how the Falcons play when they’re not snug in their domed security blanket. Also, though it’s not like me to say talk about teams being “owned,” Eli Manning owns the Falcons almost as much as he owns the Pats in Super Bowls. Winner: Giants

Buccaneers at Saints

The Steelers proved last week against the Bucs that if you let a team hang around long enough and stupidly give them enough chances, no matter how bad that team is, they will beat your ass. Of course, having the right guy at QB helps too; I don’t know why Lovie Smith stubbornly insists on starting Josh McClown over Mike Glennon, but at least last week, old Josh’s right thumb made the call that Lovie can’t seem to see is right. New Orleans has problems of their own, but playing at home should solve plenty on the offensive side of the ball at least, and that should be enough. Fire Rob Ryan, and you’re a contender again. Winner: Saints

Texans at Cowboys

The Cowboys are 3-1 (What?!?) and their offence is humming because they’re sticking with DeMarco Murray and the running game. Meanwhile, Tony Romo still has Jason Witten and Dez Bryant, but it’s not all on him anymore. Romo’s never had it so good. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to suck, and his defence can’t expect to face the likes of EJ Manuel every week. Winner: Cowboys

Bills at Lions

This one’s a real head-scratcher for me. I’d give it to Detroit in a walk, but the Orton factor is muddying the waters for me. I like Kyle Orton; I thought he was a pretty good QB when he was the starter in Chicago, and he played well in Denver as well before he started getting shuffled around. For the past few years, he’s been a well-paid clipboard holder. He only joined the Bills in August, but he’s had over a month now to get in shape, get to know the players, and learn the playbook.  I mean, he’s got to be better than Manuel, right? Meanwhile, the pattern with the Lions the past few seasons has been early success, followed by collapse due to their lack of depth on defence and lack of discipline everywhere. Plus, Megatron is nursing a bum ankle, and the Bills’ defence is pretty good. Am I over-thinking this? GAH! OK, I have to do it. Not that it’s my thing, but I guess I’m making this my upset special of the week. Winner: Bills

Ravens at Colts

I’d have to be crazy to go against Andrew Luck at home. Except Indy’s running game stinks and they have no pass rush. The Ravens’ offence looks better every week, and their defence is solid. Call me crazy. Winner: Ravens

Steelers at Jaguars

As much as I like this Blake Bortles kid, if Pittsburgh loses to Jacksonville a week after their debacle at home against Tampa, heads will roll in steel town. Winner: Steelers

Cardinals at Broncos

Arizona’s defence continues to play well, and should be a good challenge to Peyton Manning and his merry band. The Broncos’ defence will decide this contest by shutting down the Cards. Winner: Broncos

Chiefs at 49ers

The Eagles should have beaten the 49ers last week, but they just could not get their offence to click. The Chiefs clicked he hell out of the Pats on Monday night with a running attack that is now a two-headed monster. I’m not jumping on any bandwagons here, but it’s just that with Knile Davis spelling Jamaal Charles at RB, it’s tough for any defence to get a break. This Chiefs team can control the clock on offence and can get after the passer on defence, which is a recipe for disaster for San Fran. Winner: Chiefs

Jets at Chargers

Well, Rex Ryan is sticking with Geno Smith at QB for now, but the clock is ticking on the Jets’ playoff hopes, and if Smith continues to struggle, it’ll be time to go with Vick. Smith or Vick, the Chargers, especially Philip Rivers, are just too good right now. Winner: Chargers

Bengals at Patriots

We’ve all seen it before during the Belichick/Brady years: New England is struggling, coming off a bad loss, sportswriters are opining on the team’s demise, then the Pats go back to the friendly confines of Foxborough and take care of business.  The problem this time is that the offensive line is truly awful, and though that might improve as the season progresses, business this week involves hosting the Bengals, and that Bengals defence is a bad bit of business. Winner: Bengals

Monday Night

Seahawks at Washington

RGIII, Kirk Cousins, Doug Williams, Joe Theismann; I don’t care who you put behind Center, the home team is no match for the Seahawks in this one. Winner: Seahawks

 

Mr. Silver’s Picks:

Packers

Bears

Titans

Eagles

Giants

Saints

Texans

Lions

Colts

Steelers

Broncos

Chiefs

Chargers

Patriots

Washington