Just a quick post to tell everyone that Mr. Silver and I are away today, but that we both picked the Dolphins to win a close one tonight. We'll both be back tomorrow with a full slate of picks for Sunday and Monday.
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Thursday Night Browns at Bengals What state is round at both ends and tall in the middle? All jokes aside, when’s the last time you can remember a battle of Buckeye State rivals Cleveland and Cincinnati this late in the season meaning so much? How much? Well, in case you haven’t checked the standings lately, there’s nary a team in the AFC North with a losing record, and a victory here is especially important because division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh play the Titans and Jets, respectively, this week (draw your own conclusions). So, who do you like? The best way to compare any two teams is by looking at what they’ve done so far this season. Statistically, there’s not much to choose from; somewhat surprisingly, they’ve both relied more on offence while displaying mediocre defence (particularly against the run, where only Green Bay ranks lower than them). Cleveland had a “you-can’t-just-show-up” loss to Jacksonville, while Cincy has that “kicker-missed-an-easy-one” tie with Carolina to haunt them. No matter how much he wins, Brian Hoyer has to deal with all the attention paid to his backup; Andy Dalton could throw for 600 yards and 8 TDs and the first thing you’d read/hear would be, “Yeah, but he chokes in the playoffs.” The main difference I can see in these two teams right now is how the media perceives them. The Bengals entered this season as a frontrunner, and until a Week 5 shellacking at Foxborough, were in the conversation as one of the top teams in the league. Since then, they’ve struggled, and are generally seen as underachievers. The Browns, on the other hand, perennial also-rans, are looked upon as overachievers. If you’re looking for an psychological edge in this game, I guess it depends on whether you’d rather put your money on the relaxed team with lower expectations, or the defending division champ with its back against the wall. I liked the way the Bengals defended their turf two weeks ago against the Ravens, and I expect them to enter this contest with the mindset that they have something to lose, something that’s worth keeping. Oh, and if that’s not enough for you, there’s another thing these two teams have in common. Cleveland and Cincinnati each employ game-changing, dominant WRs. You know who they are. Only one is playing tonight. Winner: Bengals Mr. Silver Picks: Bengals Thursday Night Saints at Panthers Since it’s that special, spooky time of year, here’s a horror story for you: in a season in which, after eight weeks, no other division leader is less than two games above .500, tonight’s fight between 3-4 New Orleans and 3-4-1 Carolina places the winner atop the NFC South. So, on the day of mischief traditionally known as “Devil’s Night,” who do you like; saints, or black cats? New Orleans’ offence is effective both at home and on the road, and generally only has problems, as all offences do, when faced with a great defence. Carolina, which has given up only 10 fewer points than the Jacksonville Jaguars (!), fields a defence which is but a shadow of last season’s elite unit. Of course, the Saints’ defence isn’t exactly a collection of all stars. However, against a Panthers’ offence which has more often than not struggled to score points this season, and which is dealing with a dearth of healthy bodies on its offensive line, decent defence will do. All Saints’ Day may be two days away, but with the inside track to the promised land of the playoffs at stake, Devil’s Night belongs to the Saints. Winner: Saints Mr. Silver Picks: Saints I’ve been pretty sick this week (I actually missed two days’ work, and I hate calling in sick) and I was actually considering just posting a list of picks until the boss told me to quit being such a crybaby. So, I sucked it up and cobbled together a column through my off-and-on periods of delirium.
Before I get to the picks, though, I have a quick follow-up on last week’s column. As you might remember, I touched on the issue of sportsmanship, specifically extolling the example of Tampa Bay’s Gerald McCoy. I posted my column last Friday, and since then a couple of items caught my attention:
I guess I was ahead of the game on that one. Not the first time, won’t be the last. Last week, I went 9-6, just edging out Mr. Silver at 8-7. Thursday Night Chargers at Broncos This is a great matchup for prime time Thursday. Offensively, there’s not much difference; both teams’ running games have faced challenges due to injuries, two great QBs, slight edge to Denver in receiving depth. It’ll be the Broncos’ defence, with its superior pass rush and deeper secondary (especially with Brandon Flowers out for San Diego), that decides this contest. Winner: Broncos Sunday Lions at Falcons (at Wembley) Few teams suffer as much as Atlanta by giving away a home game to travel to England. Detroit’s defence is playing extremely well, and while its offence is struggling, the Falcons’ defence doesn’t represent much of a challenge. Winner: Lions Rams at Chiefs Though I love Austin Davis, KCs pass rush, plus the incredible home field advantage playing at ear-splittingly loud Arrowhead affords, should be enough to give the Chiefs the edge they need. Winner: Chiefs Texans at Titans News out of Texan-land is that Ryan Fitzpatrick is on a short leash after the fiasco at Heinz Field on Monday night. Now, I’m no Fitzpatrick fan, but I watched that game, so if we’re assigning blame, let’s be fair. After dominating most of the first half, Houston, leading by 10, punted with 1:56 left in the 2nd quarter. The Steelers got a quick TD, going 63 yards in only two plays. After Pittsburgh kicked off, Arian Foster fumbled on the Texans’ second play, the Steelers recovered on the Houston 3, and Pittsburgh scored another TD on the very next play. After Pittsburgh kicked off again, the Texans had the ball with 1:03 to go until the half, down 14-10, mere seconds after having led 10-0. I figured Houston would just try to run out the clock and get into the locker room to regroup after the sudden and shocking turn of events. So why, in this situation, did Fitzpatrick drop back to pass on 1st down? Predictably, the ill-advised pass was tipped and intercepted, and the Steelers led 21-10 in short order. Whoever was responsible for that play call, well, to put it mildly, is a goddamn moron. There, I’m so glad I got that off my chest. As for this game, I think the Texans will be eager to atone. Winner: Texans Vikings at Buccaneers The Bucs aren’t very good, and have gotten thumped really bad a couple of times. They have also had some good performances, like beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and scoring 31 points against the Saints in an OT loss in New Orleans. Tampa should be well-rested after its bye, and rightful starting QB Mike Glennon should outduel the Vikes’ Teddy Bridgewater, who has struggled after his brilliant debut. Winner: Buccaneers Seahawks at Panthers Two teams with very similar stories thus far; both started strong, but have struggled of late, primarily because of great defences decimated by the unavailability of key players. I want to pick Cam Newton at home, but realistically, Russell Wilson is almost as good as Newton, plus Wilson has Marshawn Lynch. Winner: Seahawks Ravens at Bengals Based on my preseason assessment of these teams, I would have thought that Cincy takes this easily. Based on how both teams have played most recently, I’d be crazy not to pick Baltimore. I know it’s early in the season, but this could be it for the Bengals. A loss here negates the advantage of Cincy’s Week 1 win over the Ravens, and would put the Bengals three games behind Baltimore in the win column. This is a pride game. I fully expect the Bengals to leave it all on the field. Winner: Bengals Dolphins at Jaguars Blake Bortles got his first win a week earlier than I thought he would. Two in a row doesn’t seem out of the question for me. Winner: Jaguars Bears at Patriots A month ago, I would have picked Chicago with little hesitation. Two weeks ago, I still might have picked them. Now? After The Bears’ most recent bed-shitting performance against the Dolphins, I don’t know what to think, but I do know that going into Foxborough and beating the Pats is not something I’m willing to bet on. Winner: Patriots Bills at Jets I like Kyle Orton as a steadying influence in Buffalo’s offence, but losing CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson is a lot to deal with all at once. Look for the Jets’ defence to dial up the pressure on Orton, while the Jets’ offence takes a conservative, ball-control approach to grind out a much-needed victory. Winner: Jets Eagles at Cardinals Unlike last season, Nick Foles has shown a tendency to go through streaks where he gets careless with the ball. If the stout Arizona run defence shuts down LeSean McCoy, Foles will have to put it up a lot. Should be interesting. Winner: Cardinals Raiders at Browns Hopefully for the Browns, they learned last week that you can’t just show up and expect to win just because you’re supposed to, because Derek Carr will make them pay if they screw up again this week. This has the makings of a really entertaining game with lots of scoring. Winner: Browns Colts at Steelers That “How to win a game in under two minutes” stuff that Pittsburgh lucked into on Monday night won’t save them against a Colts team with a steadily improving defence and an offence that features a QB who’s slightly more dangerous than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Winner: Colts Packers at Saints Since the Pack started the season 1-2, Aaron Rodgers has looked, for the most part, like he can do pretty much whatever he wants. He should have tons of fun against the Saints’ defence. As for Drew Brees, he’s thrown some killer picks this season, and Green Bay has some serious ball hawks on defence. Winner: Packers Monday Night Washington at Cowboys The Giants hung with Dallas for a bit last week, which probably conjured up some painful memories for Cowboys’ fans. This is a different Dallas team though, and as long as the offensive line stays healthy and DeMarco Murray can keep up with his heavy workload, Tony Romo doesn’t have to force anything. Winner: Cowboys Mr. Silver’s Picks Chargers Lions Chiefs Titans Buccaneers Panthers Ravens Jaguars Bears Jets Cardinals Browns Colts Packers Washington In a week where Cincinnati Bengals’ LB Vontaze Burfict made headlines for mixing in some submission holds with his tackles against the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, I thought it would be nice to draw attention to another item I saw this week which received slightly less attention.
A radio show host Tampa, a former Bucs’ player who doesn’t deserve to have his name appear in my column, criticized current Buccaneer Gerald McCoy for his habit of helping opposing players up after plays. McCoy’s response impressed me. Rather than going on an angry tirade against the former player, or taking to Twitter to make some ill-considered comment, McCoy defended himself by focusing the attention… on himself. Here’s McCoy, saying it as well as it can be said: “If people really pay attention, then you would also notice that when someone on the opposing team gets hurt, most of time there’s one person who walks on the field and says a prayer, and that’s me… That’s who I am and that’s who I’m going to be. If you don’t like it, get over it. I’m going to help people up because I’m a good sportsman and because football is temporary; sports is temporary. People have families and kids, wives. And 10 years down the line … what about that guy who you’re so concerned about how hard he’s going and he can’t play with his kids because he’s out there killing himself? That’s what I’m concerned about.’’ I was particularly struck by, “… football is temporary; sports is temporary…” McCoy’s candor and self-awareness is extraordinary, particularly in the world of pro sports, where too often the win-at-all-costs ethos dominates. I may not be a fan of the Buccaneers, but I definitely just became a Gerald McCoy fan. Sunday Falcons at Ravens After teasing a resurgence by beating up on a couple of bad teams, Atlanta has reverted to last season’s form and looks terrible, especially on defence. This is particularly bad news, since Baltimore’s passing offence is playing especially well. Winner: Ravens Titans at Washington Tennessee barely held off Jacksonville at home last week, and now must go on the road to face a Washington team that at times flirts with competency. Winner: Washington Seahawks at Rams Seattle is going through a bit of a rough patch now, particularly with some injuries to key personnel on defence. The Seahawks’ offence has underperformed in recent weeks as well, but should be able to get itself on track against a Rams defence that has been unable to mount anything resembling a decent pass rush yet this season. Rams’ QB Austin Davis should make things interesting though. Winner: Seahawks Browns at Jaguars The Browns didn’t just beat Pittsburgh last week, they hammered them, and are starting to look more and more like playoff contenders. Contenders win the games they’re supposed to win, and, let’s face it, if your opponent is Jacksonville, you’re supposed to win. Winner: Browns Bengals at Colts Whither the Bengals’ once stout defence? Since Cincy’s bye, they’ve given up a total of 80 points in two games. Do they miss Mike Zimmer that much? In the context of the back-to-back terrible performances, Burfict’s UFC-esque antics against Carolina smack of desperation. It’s a good thing for the Bengals that their offence has been playing extremely well, because they’ll need to win in a shootout against Andrew Luck at home. Should be a fun one to watch. I like Luck in shootouts. Winner: Colts Vikings at Bills Detroit’s pass rush made life miserable for the Vikes’ Teddy Bridgewater last week. Buffalo’s defensive front might not be quite as good as the Lions’ but it’s still good enough to pressure the rookie QB into another sub-par performance. Kyle Orton and the Buffalo offence need only keep things steady and simple to take this one. Then it’s off to lululemon to re-enact the “burning of Sal’s Famous” scene from Do The Right Thing. Winner: Bills Dolphins at Bears Miami certainly has the pass rush to give Jay Cutler all he can handle on Sunday, but there’s too much talent on this Chicago offence for the Dolphins to handle. Winner: Bears Saints at Lions Fans expecting to see a much better version of the Saints than the one that barely beat the Buccaneers in OT before the bye were no doubt startled by recent talk regarding Jimmy Graham’s shoulder injury and its concomitant threat to his availability and/or effectiveness. The Saints have struggled, and are facing a buzzsaw Detroit defence. The Lions’ offence, itself in a bit of a rut, should be able to regain some of its lustre against a bad Saints defence. Winner: Lions Panthers at Packers Green Bay’s defence has had big trouble when trying to contain mobile QBs, and boy, was Cam Newton mobile against Cincinnati last week. I’d be more inclined to pick Carolina but for the fact that its defence hasn’t been anything to write home about lately. Aaron Rodgers is in top form, and he should be able to easily match anything that Cam can conjure. Winner: Packers Chiefs at Chargers San Diego survived a spirited effort by the Raiders last week, but held on for a narrow victory. The Chargers’ offence, complete with its lacklustre rushing game, will have a tough task this week, trying to solve a KC defence that can get after the passer with great effectiveness. I like the Chiefs to give the Chargers a good game, but it’s hard to bet against Philip Rivers when he’s playing this well. Winner: Chargers Cardinals at Raiders Wouldn’t it be cool if Oakland could build upon its performance against San Diego last week and beat the visiting Cards? I like Derek Carr, but I think he struggles against Arizona’s secondary. Carr will have to wait a bit longer for his first victory. Winner: Cardinals Giants at Cowboys Well, Dallas did it; they beat Seattle, just like I knew they would. The Cowboys are riding high now, 5-1, playing better than just about anyone could have predicted. Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off one of the most demoralizing defeats in recent memory, getting drubbed by Philadelphia, and losing Victor Cruz for the season in a particularly gruesome fashion. Taken all together, this looks like an easy pick. At least, that’s what I thought. (What?) I don’t know what it is, but I have a weird feeling about this one. Heading into last week’s contest in Philadelphia, the Giants were doing a lot of talking, making their shutout loss even more humiliating. According to some of the Giants players, Tom Coughlin called the players out over their trash-talking on Monday, which comes as no surprise to me, considering Coughlin’s no-nonsense, team-first attitude. There are few, if any coaches in the NFL that I respect more than Coughlin. In the past, I’ve written off the Giants several times, much to my own humiliation. Coughlin reminds me of some wise elder who has mystical powers. Coughlin no doubt knows that Tony Romo skips a day of practice to rest his back, that DeMarco Murray missed a practice due to illness this week, and that LB Rolando McClain has missed at least two practices this week. Coughlin also knows that the Cowboys are feeling pretty good about themselves right about now, and that they are playing in front of a home crowd that expects nothing less than total annihilation of the Giants. What else does Coughlin know? Who knows. I just know that this game has “It’s a trap!” written all over it. Winner: Giants 49ers at Broncos I still say that San Fran is lucky, but that luck isn’t going to help them this week against this improved Denver defence. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Broncos blow these guys out. Seriously. Winner: Broncos Monday Night Texans at Steelers After getting pummelled by Cleveland last week, I expect Pittsburgh to play really hard this week. Still, I think that JJ Watt has a huge game playing on the big stage of Monday Night Football, and the Texans steal a close one. Winner: Texans Mr. Silver's Picks: Falcons Washington Seahawks Browns Bengals Bills Dolphins Saints Packers Chargers Cardinals Giants Broncos Steelers I had a stressful couple of days at work, so my wife and I decided to take a drive to Mahone Bay to walk, breathe some fresh air, and look at some cool scarecrows. It was just what we both needed. I came home refreshed and ready to settle in for the evening with some beer and a football game. So, at least temporarily, I’m going to return to last season’s schedule of doing a Thursday night mini-column with my Thursday pick, with the rest of my picks to follow tomorrow. For those of you who might be disappointed by this sudden change in events, I promise that tomorrow’s column will contain a pick so shocking that I may have to post a warning for heart patients and people with erectile dysfunction/hay fever. As for the ongoing competition between myself and Mr. Silver, I was 11-3 last week (not including the ridiculous tie between the Panthers and Bengals), while Mr. Silver struggled to 6-8. And yes, I did pick the Cowboys to upset the Seahawks, in case anyone thought I wouldn’t mention it. Thursday Night Jets at Patriots With the way these two teams’ fortunes have gone in recent weeks, it should be no surprise to anyone that the Pats are huge favourites to win at home tonight. We’ve been here before though, haven’t we; New England riding high, only to be laid low by the team that plays them harder than any other. Let’s face it; since Rex Ryan took over as Jets’ head coach, the two games they play against New England each season are the Jets’ Super Bowl. So, could Rex’s bunch pull the upset tonight? Absolutely. The common thread in the two New England losses this year (Miami, Kansas City) was the ability of the opposing defence to get major pressure on Tom Brady. Though the Jets have a great many weaknesses, they do have a top-notch defensive front. Also, the Pats will be without RB Stevan Ridley, lost for the season with a torn ACL/MCL. Meanwhile, the Jets’ offence will be facing a New England defence that is itself dealing with a major loss in LB Jerod Mayo. Ultimately, I think New England will overcome these challenges. In last week’s game against a Bills defence with a strong pass rush, the Pats were able to adjust nicely, with Brady hardly bothered. As for the Pats’ defence, they still have a strong defensive line, anchored by Vince Wilfork, the supremely talented Jamie Collins to solidify the linebacking corps, and plenty of ball hawks in the secondary who will be eager to make whichever bad QB the Jets put behind Center pay. Winner: Patriots Mr. Silver's Pick: Patriots Spent most of my day off running errands and doing housework (it’s a glamourous life, I know), so I’ll skip the preliminaries, save to mention that I went 11-4 in the first week of my head-to-head challenge against “Mr. Silver,” while he managed a respectable 9-6. I like his style; like me, he’s not afraid to take risks and has a fondness for Latin. Unlike me, he still thinks players wear leather helmets. Thursday Night Colts at Texans I like Houston’s defence against Indy’s offence in this matchup. Both of the Colts’ starting Guards are out this week, and the Texans have this guy named Watt who’s pretty good at getting after the QB. Houston at home should be able to eke out a close victory. Now, here comes the swerve: it’s Thursday night. Playing a Thursday game after having played the previous Sunday is difficult, as the short rest does not allow much time for recuperation. Fatigue tends to be more of an issue on defence, and Andrew Luck is enough of a challenge on a full week’s rest. As for the Colts’ defence, they can key on stopping Arian Foster, and dare Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat them. Fitzpatrick is just as likely to beat his own team. Winner: Colts Sunday Jaguars at Titans I kind of want to pick Blake Bortles and the Jags to get their first win this week, but I think the Titans squeak one out at home. Winner: Titans Ravens at Buccaneers The Ravens’ offence should bounce back nicely this week after being stuffed by a spirited defensive effort in Indianapolis last week. Winner: Ravens Broncos at Jets As much as things are going well for the Broncs so far this season, they are going so very, very wrong for the Jets. Winner: Broncos Lions at Vikings By all accounts, Teddy Bridgewater is a go at QB this Sunday. The Vikes have a strong running game and talent at the receiving positions (especially Cordarrelle Patterson, who when used creatively is a tremendous weapon). The Lions have a lot of injuries, especially to Calvin Johnson aka Megatron/Matthew Stafford’s security blanket. Winner: Vikings Patriots at Bills Did you feel a sudden breeze this past Sunday night? After the Pats starched the visiting Bengals, an entire fan base that had been previously holding its collective breath simultaneously exhaled (here in Nova Scotia, it smelled like Sam Adams and fluffernutters). The Buffalo pass rush could prove problematic, but the Pats seem to have hit upon an offensive line combination and scheme that works. Plus, New England’s defence is a significant step up for Kyle Orton after facing Detroit in his debut last week. Winner: Patriots Panthers at Bengals No doubt about it; Cincy got smoked by the Pats. But exposed? Not a chance. Even if AJ Green can’t go this Sunday because of his toe injury, the Bengals won’t need to muster much offence, because their defence will absolutely stifle Cam Newton. Winner: Bengals Steelers at Browns Is it Brian Hoyer’s team yet? I mean, what does the guy have to do? Actually, I think he’s done it. Though the media is obsessed with a guy who’s done absolutely nothing in the NFL, the people who really matter, namely his Browns teammates, believe in Hoyer. This Sunday, they’ll come together and finish the job they didn’t in Week 1. Winner: Browns Packers at Dolphins I’m still not sold on Green Bay’s defence, but I’m not sold on much of anything the Dolphins do, except rush the passer. Aaron Rodgers does some of his best work while he’s being chased. Winner: Packers Chargers at Raiders San Diego’s defence has been fantastic so far. Also, despite having lost seven Centers and 23 RBs (all numbers approximate) to injury so far this season, Philip Rivers looks like the best QB in the league, and the Chargers’ offence keeps putting up points. The Raiders’ young talent has finally been freed from the tyranny of Dennis Allen’s terrible coaching. That won’t help them this week, but things can only get better, right? Winner: Chargers Bears at Falcons After a typically disastrous road swing, Atlanta is back home in the Georgia Dome, where their offence flourishes and opposing defences get whiplash watching the ball fly over their heads. Enter the Bears, with their less-than-stellar defence, and you have a recipe for disaster. Now, here comes the swerve: I’m picking Chicago. The Bears had Carolina on the ropes last week, only to have Jay Cutler and Matt Forte give the game away with turnovers. Don’t forget that Atlanta’s defence isn’t exactly brimming with all stars either. This is going to be a shootout, and I’m going with Cutler. It’s starting to become like a sickness with me, I think. Winner: Bears Cowboys at Seahawks I wasn’t terribly impressed by Seattle’s offence against Washington the other night. Only a superior effort by Russell Wilson bailed them out. I’m just about ready to go all-in with Dallas this week. One thing troubles me, though. Tony Romo is known to be pretty fearless when it comes to trying to make plays. That kind of attitude can come back to bite you in the ass pretty quickly against Seattle’s defence. If DeMarco Murray can get off to a strong start and not fumble, it will force Seattle to commit more Safety help to stop the run. Not that it’s my thing, but I guess I’m making this my upset special of the week. Winner: Cowboys Washington at Cardinals Tempted to go with Washington here, as Arizona deals with yet another injury on defence (Calais Campbell), but I think the Cards’ secondary steps up here and Kirk Cousins turns it over a few times. Call it a hunch. Winner: Cardinals Giants at Eagles My, how things have changed; the Giants’ offence is hitting its stride, while the Eagles’ have been relying in recent weeks on their defence and special teams to score. Nick Foles looks ill at ease playing behind a line that can’t protect him and can’t seem to open holes for the running game. Looking at this game on the schedule before the season started, I would have picked Philly in a walk. How things have changed indeed. Winner: Giants Monday Night 49ers at Rams Well, imagine my surprise when Austin Davis started at QB for the Rams last week. I had just assumed that Jeff Fisher would go back to Shaun Hill. Fisher surprised me, and Davis shot the lights out against the Eagles, throwing for 375 yards and 3 TDs (with no picks). San Fran has been incredibly lucky in winning its last two games. I’m going with the kid, Davis, under the bright lights of MNF. A star is born. Winner: Rams Mr. Silver’s Picks
Texans Titans Buccaneers Jets Lions Bills Bengals Steelers Packers Chargers Bears Seahawks Washington Eagles Rams It’s always nice when new people check out my picks. Thanks to loyal reader and friend of the column Paul, who posted a link on PICKWATCH, I had a lot of new people checking me out last week. A few of those people contacted me, which was nice. One person who commented on my Week 3 picks amused me. All the way down in sunny California, this person took the time to type: “My little 10 yr.old brother pick better than you. You must using head or tail to pick a team.” (That he wrote this about a week where I was a respectable 10-6, lost one game on a last-second FG and another in OT, and nailed three road underdogs was curious, but I digress…) Then last week happened: I went 5-8. Granted, it was a weird week, one where a lot of pro pickers got creamed (And I nailed that Vikings over Falcons “It’s a Trap” game, but I digress…), but still, it got me thinking… Could a coin pick better than me? So, I decided to give it a try. But first, I had to pick a coin. For a serious experiment like this, not any old coin would do. After considering a few options, I finally settled on this, a 1939 Canadian Silver Dollar: It worked for me for a number of reasons, most notably:
So, I gave Mr. Silver three separate cracks at the Week 4 games (Heads for Home, Tails for Visitors), and this was the result: Giants Giants Washington Bears Packers Bears Bills Bills Bills Colts Titans Titans Ravens Ravens Ravens Jets Jets Lions Buccaneers Steelers Steelers Dolphins Raiders Dolphins Jaguars Chargers Chargers Falcons Vikings Vikings Eagles Eagles Eagles Cowboys Saints Cowboys Chiefs Chiefs Patriots 7-6 6-7 6-7 Not great numbers either, maddeningly consistent, slightly better than mine. So, I’m making this a weekly thing. For the rest of the season, I’m putting my picks against old Mr. Silver. I think I can take him; the NFL has changed a lot since 1939… Thursday Night Vikings at Packers After his scintillating debut on Sunday against Atlanta, I can’t wait to see Teddy Bridgewater in action again. With his ankle sprain, and with his team playing on short rest, I hope for Bridgewater’s sake, and for the sake of the Vikings team and fans (not to mention fans of exciting football) that he does not play tonight. He most likely won’t, which means that a relaxed Aaron Rodgers can take care of business. Winner: Packers Sunday Bears at Panthers Watching Cutler vs. Rodgers reminded me of something familiar. Sometimes when you’re driving a bus, you’re on schedule and everything is fine. Then, you hit a few red lights in a row, and you start falling behind. Early in the game, the Bears had a drive extended by an extremely questionable call and scored on the drive. Aaron Rodgers went to work, calm and relaxed, handled his business, and brought his team back. Later, the Packers had a couple of bad calls go their way, the Bears had some bad clock management at the end of the first half, and they started falling behind. In the second half, Cutler started forcing things, got impatient, and Chicago got blown out. The reason Rodgers is better than Cutler is poise. When you start falling behind, you keep doing the things you know how to do, you don’t rush, and you don’t panic. That’s why I always finish my shift on time. Having said that, I still like Cutler, I still like the Bears, and I think they come back stronger and wiser this week. Winner: Bears Browns at Titans Whether it’s a banged-up Jake Locker or a how-does-this-guy-keep-getting-teams-to-sign-him Charlie Whitehurst behind Center, Cleveland’s defence will do enough to allow Brian Hoyer to get himself a victory and keep his job for another week. Winner: Browns Rams at Eagles Despite the puzzlingly inept performance against San Fran last week, I expect Philly’s offence to bounce back this week. Too bad for Rams’ fans: Shaun Hill is healthy again and should start at QB. Me, I liked that Austin Davis kid. He’s a cool customer. Winner: Eagles Falcons at Giants Atlanta continues its road swing with a visit to the Meadowlands to take on the once-again resurrected Giants (Honestly, every time I count these guys out, they come back to life like Jason Vorhees and punches my head off... darn you Coughlin!). We all know how the Falcons play when they’re not snug in their domed security blanket. Also, though it’s not like me to say talk about teams being “owned,” Eli Manning owns the Falcons almost as much as he owns the Pats in Super Bowls. Winner: Giants Buccaneers at Saints The Steelers proved last week against the Bucs that if you let a team hang around long enough and stupidly give them enough chances, no matter how bad that team is, they will beat your ass. Of course, having the right guy at QB helps too; I don’t know why Lovie Smith stubbornly insists on starting Josh McClown over Mike Glennon, but at least last week, old Josh’s right thumb made the call that Lovie can’t seem to see is right. New Orleans has problems of their own, but playing at home should solve plenty on the offensive side of the ball at least, and that should be enough. Fire Rob Ryan, and you’re a contender again. Winner: Saints Texans at Cowboys The Cowboys are 3-1 (What?!?) and their offence is humming because they’re sticking with DeMarco Murray and the running game. Meanwhile, Tony Romo still has Jason Witten and Dez Bryant, but it’s not all on him anymore. Romo’s never had it so good. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to suck, and his defence can’t expect to face the likes of EJ Manuel every week. Winner: Cowboys Bills at Lions This one’s a real head-scratcher for me. I’d give it to Detroit in a walk, but the Orton factor is muddying the waters for me. I like Kyle Orton; I thought he was a pretty good QB when he was the starter in Chicago, and he played well in Denver as well before he started getting shuffled around. For the past few years, he’s been a well-paid clipboard holder. He only joined the Bills in August, but he’s had over a month now to get in shape, get to know the players, and learn the playbook. I mean, he’s got to be better than Manuel, right? Meanwhile, the pattern with the Lions the past few seasons has been early success, followed by collapse due to their lack of depth on defence and lack of discipline everywhere. Plus, Megatron is nursing a bum ankle, and the Bills’ defence is pretty good. Am I over-thinking this? GAH! OK, I have to do it. Not that it’s my thing, but I guess I’m making this my upset special of the week. Winner: Bills Ravens at Colts I’d have to be crazy to go against Andrew Luck at home. Except Indy’s running game stinks and they have no pass rush. The Ravens’ offence looks better every week, and their defence is solid. Call me crazy. Winner: Ravens Steelers at Jaguars As much as I like this Blake Bortles kid, if Pittsburgh loses to Jacksonville a week after their debacle at home against Tampa, heads will roll in steel town. Winner: Steelers Cardinals at Broncos Arizona’s defence continues to play well, and should be a good challenge to Peyton Manning and his merry band. The Broncos’ defence will decide this contest by shutting down the Cards. Winner: Broncos Chiefs at 49ers The Eagles should have beaten the 49ers last week, but they just could not get their offence to click. The Chiefs clicked he hell out of the Pats on Monday night with a running attack that is now a two-headed monster. I’m not jumping on any bandwagons here, but it’s just that with Knile Davis spelling Jamaal Charles at RB, it’s tough for any defence to get a break. This Chiefs team can control the clock on offence and can get after the passer on defence, which is a recipe for disaster for San Fran. Winner: Chiefs Jets at Chargers Well, Rex Ryan is sticking with Geno Smith at QB for now, but the clock is ticking on the Jets’ playoff hopes, and if Smith continues to struggle, it’ll be time to go with Vick. Smith or Vick, the Chargers, especially Philip Rivers, are just too good right now. Winner: Chargers Bengals at Patriots We’ve all seen it before during the Belichick/Brady years: New England is struggling, coming off a bad loss, sportswriters are opining on the team’s demise, then the Pats go back to the friendly confines of Foxborough and take care of business. The problem this time is that the offensive line is truly awful, and though that might improve as the season progresses, business this week involves hosting the Bengals, and that Bengals defence is a bad bit of business. Winner: Bengals Monday Night Seahawks at Washington RGIII, Kirk Cousins, Doug Williams, Joe Theismann; I don’t care who you put behind Center, the home team is no match for the Seahawks in this one. Winner: Seahawks Mr. Silver’s Picks: Packers Bears Titans Eagles Giants Saints Texans Lions Colts Steelers Broncos Chiefs Chargers Patriots Washington |
GF HowieA new season, a brand new page for my picks. Archives
February 2015
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