Thirteen days ago, the participants in this year's big game were decided. So much had happened during the conference championship games, as well as the week before, that I was fairly teeming with ideas for things to write about, so much so that I thought for certain that I would have to write at least one column during the off week before the Superb Owl just to cover everything.

(Aside: I was even toying with the idea of doing a really fun/silly column, featuring, among other things, some of my own examples of ideas for NFL-themed erotica. After making some notes, and laughing myself absolutely silly, I determined that the best ones would probably be unpublishable.)

Then, the next day, that bullshit story about deflated balls started circulating. In the course of a few days, I lost pretty much all interest in writing about anything to do with the NFL. Sure, there have been negative stories surrounding the NFL before; there have been plenty just this season alone. And there have been dumb stories before, too. This was just too much for me somehow. After the extraordinary things that had happened in just a couple of weeks' worth of football, for a story this incredibly stupid to have dominated the public consciousness the way it did, and the way the media continued to stoke the fire, was almost more than I could comprehend. And it was incredibly stupid, a non-story if ever there was one. I could go into great detail as to why. GREAT DETAIL. But there's no point, really. If, after taking a reasonable amount of time to think about it, you think that the Patriots are guilty, in the context of being a team playing in the NFL, of cheating in order to win the AFC Championship Game against the Colts, then you probably suffer either from blind hatred for a football team, or from some other mental or emotional deficiency (And who am I to judge?). To reason with you would be a waste of time.

Still, the big game seems tainted now for me. I've avoided pretty much all media leading up to the game this week. I just don't want to hear any of the stupidity. And I can only imagine the dumb things that will be said after the game, as the media puts its revisionist spin on what the outcome means based on the whole stupid scandal. So, I'm focusing on the game. I'm watching the game, and then I'm done with the NFL for a while. For quite a while.











So, to the game then.

NFL Championship Game
at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

Based on everything I've seen from these two teams both down the stretch in the regular season and in the playoffs, my pick is actually pretty easy. I won't tease; it's the Patriots' game to win or lose. They are, without a doubt in my mind, the superior team. And, more to the point, offence against defence, defence against offence, Seattle does not match up well against them at all.

In order for the Patriots' defence to stop the Seahawks' offence, they have to limit the damage done by Marshawn Lynch, and keep Russell Wilson from beating them with his legs. Seattle's passing game? Not really an issue. Their offensive line isn't that great, and they don't have nearly enough talent at the receiver positions to give the Pats' secondary much of a problem. A disciplined approach by New England's defence, a hallmark of Belichick defences, will limit the opportunities for Lynch and Wilson to make big plays. Green Bay was able to do it, and they don't have nearly the talent on defence that the Pats have. I have a hard time picturing the Seahawks scoring a lot of points.

Now, the Seahawks are known for their defence, and their defence will do just as good a job stopping the Pats offence, right? And how do you do that exactly? Well, the New York Football Giants will tell you that if you can get to Brady and knock him around a lot, the game is yours. Unless the Pats' offensive line plays terribly, or suffers some injuries, that's not likely to happen. In passing situations, Brady will get the ball out quickly, like he has been doing, and like Aaron Rodgers did in the NFC title game against Seattle. The Seahawks' vaunted secondary was not able to stop Green Bay, nor will it be able to do much with how the Pats will attack them. Green Bay did themselves in by being too conservative and not putting Seattle away when they had the chance. Does lack of aggression sound like a problem that a Belichick team has?

I've been saying for weeks that Seattle fattened up their record by beating up on teams with weak QBs, and that they only won their division because the Arizona Cardinals lost too many key players to injury. Yes, Seattle is in the big game, but that does not change the fact that Aaron Rodgers, on one good leg, proved me right. If these two teams go out and play their absolute best, the outcome is obvious.

Patriots 33, Seahawks 20

Packers at Seahawks

Disclaimer: There are a few players in the league who I dislike so much that I actively root against their entire team. Richard Sherman is one of those players. He's a very good player, well coached, who plays one position on a really good defence, and he has the luxury of playing with two of the best safeties in the league. Nothing wrong with that. But he talks. And talks. A cog, even a really important one, shouldn't act like it's the whole machine. Sherman is a cog.
It's funny to me how everyone so eagerly and easily hopped back on the Seattle bandwagon. I mean, there they were, having a so-so season, running second in their own division, when things turned around for them suddenly. As with any successful team in the NFL, fortune had a hand in the turnaround: they got some key players back from injuries; the team they were chasing, the Arizona Cardinals, succumbed to blow after blow on the injury front, including to their first and second-string QBs; and, after a Week 11 loss in Kansas City, Seattle ripped off six straight wins against the following QBs: Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick, Mark Sanchez, Kaepernick, Ryan Lindley, and Shaun Hill. Now, after earning a first round bye and home field advantage almost by default, and beating the lucky-to-even-be-there Carolina Panthers, the Seahawks find themselves one win away from being back in the big game. And the reckoning that I've been expecting for Seattle when it finally faced a really good QB and offence is in question because of Aaron Rodgers's leg.
Speaking of Rodgers, I learned something new about him last week in the game against Dallas; even with a bum wheel, he's still better than most of the QBs in the NFL. Can he, can the Packers, beat the Seahawks? They'll need to come in with a game plan similar to that which they had against the Cowboys, with Rodgers getting the ball out quickly to Nelson, Cobb, and Adams (and them making plays after they get the ball, like Adams did last week), and for Eddie Lacy to have another solid game running the ball. They'll also need to be able to stop Russell Wilson, who, despite playing behind a suspect line, is a superior playmaker who has an almost preternatural knack for avoiding trouble, extending plays with his legs, and taking off and running when needs be. If the Packers can do just enough on defence to limit the Seahawks, and if Rodgers can work his magic, we'll be half way to the mactchup that the league really wants. Winner: Packers



Colts at Patriots

Let's get one thing out of the way right now; Andrew Luck is amazing. He has all the requisite skills of a top-level QB in abundance, plus he's mobile and freaking huge. Now, having said that, the Colts are lucky to be here. They finished the season looking, at least to me, like they could be one-and-done in the playoffs. But then, they had the good fortune to face a Bengals team without AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham, then played the Broncos in a game where Peyton Manning was so clearly past his expiration date that I thought I could smell a some of his passes. And now they have to face the best team in the NFL (yes, I said it), a team that thumped them by 22 points in week 11. So, what's different? Well, Indy has finally, wisely, cut bait with Trent Richardson, a tentative runner to say the least, who has never looked like he belonged in the NFL. As a result of this addition by subtraction, the Colts' running game has improved somewhat. That's pretty much it. So, we have Andrew Luck, some talented receivers, and a defence long on effort but short on talent, particularly in the secondary. The Pats? Well, you know all about them already. This is about as confident as I get in making a conference finals pick. Winner: Patriots

As we continue the march toward the big game in February, a few thoughts:

• Though the quality of the teams involved is high, the potential for entertaining games is lessening. Why? The weather is getting colder, and with games at Foxborough (featuring 37 year old Tom Brady), Lambeau (Aaron Rodgers's calf, Tony Romo's back) and Mile High (Peyton Manning's Peyton Manning-ness), the cold is definitely a factor.
• Is it just me, or does a Pats/Seahawks Super Bowl seem inevitable at this point? Both teams are healthy and rested, get to play at home, are favoured this weekend, and would be favoured in any potential matchup on Championship Sunday.
• I was 2-2 with my picks last week. My wife, I am obliged to mention, was 4-0. She preferred Flacco to Roethlisberger, and thought that I was crazy for picking "The Red Rooster" over Luck.
  

My picks in Bold:

Saturday

Ravens at Patriots
A whole lot of Pats fans are worried about this game, I'm sure, and they should be. The Ravens always play the Pats tough, (kind of like the Jets, but better). Joe Flacco's specialty is the deep ball, and he has a couple of Smiths at WR who can turn those bombs into something. Defensively, the Ravens have the personnel to pressure Brady with Suggs and Dumerville, plus they have Holoti Ngata back from his fortuitous suspension after a positive drug test (Fortuitous? Hell yes; the talented big man got four weeks off to rest just before the playoffs.) OK, so that's the sexy narrative, now here's the reality. The Pats should win this easily. Their offence is balanced, has the nigh-unstoppable Gronk, and is going against a bad Baltimore secondary. Oh, and New England's defence is the best the team has had in years. Only mistakes, or injuries, can derail the Pats this time.

Panthers at Seahawks
Carolina is lucky to have made it this far. They won a bad division, and drew Arizona in the first round. Their road ends here. And as for Seattle, another in a string of favourable matchups will have the fans believing, at least for one more week, that everything is fine.

Sunday

Cowboys at Packers
Last week, I said that if they beat Detroit, the Cowboys would go up to Lambeau and thump the Packers. After watching that Lions/Cowboys game, I take it back. There was just something about the way the Cowboys underperformed that I found off-putting. Oh, and Dez Bryant played like absolute crap, and displayed his old characteristic lack of self-control at a crucial point in the game, which would have cost his team dearly if the officials hadn't decided to suddenly become complete effing morons. Dallas was extremely lucky to win last week. I expect the high-scoring contest, mainly because of the two great offences and two defences that I don't particularly trust. If you hate the Cowboys as much as I do, (even though I kind of like Romo), and the sight of Chis Christie celebrating with Jerry Jones drives you nuts, here's one more reason to root against Dallas. Go Packers!

Colts at Broncos
To those Broncos fans who are worried that their team didn't play well down the stretch (they didn't), and who are probably scared to death of Andrew Luck (they should be), take heart; this Colts team isn't very good. The number of weapons at Peyton Manning's disposal will overwhelm the underwhelming Indy defence, and Denver's pass rush and secondary will negate any magic that Luck might conjure. Enjoy your trip to Foxborough, Broncos.

On the final day of the year 2014, I was conversing via social media with a friend-of-the-column (who, for the purposes of this exercise I shall dub "P-Dub"), about a playoff confidence pool he was in. He asked me what I thought of his rankings, which caused me to ask myself, "Well, what DO I think?" After finishing my 11+ hour shift on NYE, and after getting some much-needed sleep, I asked myself this question again. Turns out, I already pretty much had my mind made up, a least concerning this weekend's games. That is, of course, to any extent that I could claim to know anything about what will happen in the game between, the free-falling-who's-playing-QB-again? Cardinals and the should-they-even-be-here-crappy-division-winning Panthers.

My picks in Bold:

Saturday

Cardinals at Panthers
When it comes to the Cards, it's like I said two weeks ago: "Ah, what might have been." It's been a great year, but this is the playoffs, and you don't win with Ryan Lindley. You win with Cam Newton. Well, at least this week you do.

Ravens at Steelers
Great rivalry here. I see the Steelers, in the absence of Le'Veon Bell, attacking the Ravens with a pass-heavy game plan, taking advantage of Baltimore's needing to take away the deep pass by exploiting the middle of the field with short passes to the backs, slot WRs, and Heath Miller.

Sunday

Bengals at Colts
With the exception of Andrew Luck, there's not a lot I see that I like about the Colts right now. Cincy wins this with a conservative, power rush-heavy offence and by not allowing big plays on defence.

Lions at Cowboys
So, allow me to talk about Green Bay for a bit. Lions' DT/Deranged Idiot Nadamukong Suh DELIBERATELY stepped on Aaron Rodgers in a depravedly indifferent attempt to injure him. Suh was rightly suspended for one game. The suspension was inexplicably overturned. The Packers should be happy. Why? Because Suh gives the Lions a better chance to win against the Cowboys, and if the Cowboys win, as I expect they will, then Green Bay will be one-and-done in the playoffs, because the Dallas will thump them.

Something is wrong in the state of Ohio. Several Bengals have been listed on the injury report this week due to illness. Meanwhile, in Cleveland, the season-long battle for QB supremacy has ended with a whimper, with Johnny Manziel on IR after sucking gloriously in his limited action and the former starter, old what's-his-name also ailing. Now, I'm not suggesting that I know the answer to this mystery, nor am I making any kind of accusations. All I know is that I have scoured the internet for news, any kind of report or mention that there has not been some kind of outbreak of STIs among the players on Ohio's professional football teams, and I have found nothing. Now, according to the United States CDC, rates of STIs, particularly Chlamydia, have been rising steadily in Ohio over the past four years. I would think that in a situation like this, with so much on the line, and with all the negative PR that the league has had over the past season, that they would want to get out in front of this issue and nip it in the bud before a rumour can get started which could undermine the public's confidence in the product. At any rate, I hope all the afflicted players are healthy again soon, and that no one gets any crazy ideas about what's really going on.

Speaking of what's going on, go here to read who needs to do what to who in order to get this or that.

My picks in Bold:

Sunday (It's all Sunday)

Browns at Ravens
After all the back-and-forth over who's starting/who should be starting/why is he adjusting his cup so much at QB, we get Connor Shaw behind Center this Sunday for the Browns. I hope he lights that Ravens' secondary up like a pinball machine (Christmas is over, folks), but he probably won't.

Cowboys at Landover, MD
The East Division-winning Cowboys continue their quest to wreck their season by running DeMarco Murray into the ground. Continuing to give Murray the ball last week in a blowout just days after hand surgery would be confusing for any team not coached by a coach whose testicles are probably in a jar in Jerry Jones's office.

Colts at Titans
The Colts are playing like a one-and-done is in their playoff future, but hey, it's the Titans!

Jaguars at Texans
JJ Watt enters this game just behind KCs Justin Houston for the league lead in sacks. Considering that Justin has to chase Philip Rivers on Sunday, I'd lay odds on JJ, if he doesn't pass out from blood loss that is.

Chargers at Chiefs
San Diego is playing to keep hold of the final AFC playoff spot, while KC would need a win plus a lot of help to make it. I was tempted to take the Chiefs (I always seem to be), especially in Arrowhead, but I don't like their chances with Alex Smith out.

Jets at Dolphins
I was going to pick the Jets to give beloved coach Rex Ryan a proper sendoff, but apparently there's an illness making the rounds with them as well. Hmm... I wonder.

Bears at Vikings
No pressure. Nothing at stake. Cutler throws for 400?

Bills at Patriots
Since Peyton Manning and the Broncos gave the Pats an early Christmas present last week (Home field advantage? You shouldn't have.), and since Belichick would have to be certifiably insane to expose Brady, Gronk, Edelman, et al, to too much of that really good Buffalo defence, I don't know what to expect from this one. The Pats do take defending the home turf pretty seriously, though.

Eagles at Giants
Nothing at stake here. I'm picking Coughlin's crew, for old time's sake.

Saints at Buccaneers
Nothing at stake here, except the #1 pick in the draft for the Bucs.

Panthers at Falcons
Winner gets a home playoff game. Tough to go against the Falcons at home, but I'm hearing bad things about Julio Jones's health.

Lions at Packers
Both are in the playoffs, but this is for the division. The league rightly suspended Dominic Raiola for this one. It's funny how that works; under Jim Schwartz, a culture of assholery ruled the Lions, and though they might have changed coaches, the assholes still remain.

Raiders at Broncos
I'm looking forward to more of Derek Carr next season. No shame losing to the Broncos at Mile High.

Cardinals at 49ers
Of course, this being the Cards, nothing would surprise me, especially playing against the most overrated QB in the NFL, but I think there's just too many losses to overcome here.

Rams at Seahawks
One more week of Seattle fans thinking everything will work out.

Bengals at Steelers
I was intent on picking Cincy here, but, what with all these illnesses on the injury report, I'm leaning toward Pittsburgh.

My picks in Bold:

Thursday Night

Titans at Jaguars
Not that anyone cares, or cared about this game.

Saturday

Eagles at Landover, MD
I guess the only solution is to just pretend they don't exist (Note: In four years, that word has never appeared in any of my columns.)

Chargers at 49ers
San Fran is a lame duck, but no Keenan Allen and Ryan Matthews = big trouble.

Sunday

Vikings at Dolphins
Pass rush rattles the rookie.

Ravens at Texans
No secondary? No problem. No QB.

Lions at Bears
Jimmy Claus(en) is comin' to town, and he's got presents for the Leos' defenders.

Browns at Panthers
My daughter told me this joke when she was little:
Knock Knock.
Who's there?
Panther.
Panther who?
Panther no panths, I'm goin' thwimmin'.
Now I've got one:
Knock knock.
Who's there.
Johnny.
Johnny who?
Johnny Football.
Better save your money, kid.
(I said I wouldn't mention him in my column until he actually did something in the NFL, and he did. He sucked. It was glorious.)

Falcons at Saints
Shootout. Superdome doesn't scare anyone anymore.

Packers at Buccaneers
Do I even have to explain this one?

Chiefs at Steelers
I'll still be picking KC in March. It's a sickness I tells ya.

Patriots at Jets
Rex can't better Bill, but he could beat him if one of his players hurts you-know-who (not the pretty boy, the kitten-lovin' lunkhead).

Giants at Rams
Decent beats indecent. Also, no one cares.

Bills at Raiders
Closer than it probably should be.

Colts at Cowboys
I don't like this Indy team much.

Seahawks at Cardinals
Injury-wise, Arizona's season has now crossed over into the realm of black comedy. Ah, what might have been.

Monday Night

Broncos at Bengals
Yeah yeah yeah... Andy Dalton... prime time... blah blahblah blahblah Bob Loblaw... predicting the Bengals (and Dalton) is like the Spanish Inquisition. Oh, and no way that Anderson kid runs on Cincy. No way.

My picks in Bold:

Thursday Night

Cardinals at Rams

Sunday

Steelers at Falcons
Washington at Giants
Dolphins at Patriots
Raiders at Chiefs
Texans at Colts
Jaguars at Ravens
Packers at Bills
Buccaneers at Panthers
Bengals at Browns
Jets at Titans
Broncos at Chargers
Vikings at Lions
49ers at Seahawks
Cowboys at Eagles

Monday Night

Saints at Bears

Last week, Mr. Silver posted his best week yet at 10-6, while I was a mere 8-8.

My picks in bold:

Sunday

Steelers at Bengals
Rams at Washington
Giants at Titans
Panthers at Saints
Jets at Vikings
Ravens at Dolphins
Colts at Browns
Buccaneers at Lions
Texans at Jaguars
Bills at Broncos
Chiefs at Cardinals
Seahawks at Eagles
49ers at Raiders
Patriots at Chargers

Monday Night

Falcons at Packers

Mr. Silver's Picks


Bears
Bengals
Washington
Giants
Panthers
Jets
Ravens
Colts
Lions
Texans
Bills
Chiefs
Eagles
49ers
Chargers
Falcons


That's all, folks.

Thursday Night
Cowboys at Bears

Taking a quick at the standings, I see a lot of what the NFL typically looks like at this time of year: the expected top teams (New England, Denver) and bottoms (Jacksonville, Oakland), some surprises (like Arizona and Cleveland) and some disappointments (think New Orleans). Tonight's contest features, at least to my mind, an overachiever and an underachiever. Not to sound like a broken record, but the Bears, based on my pre-season expectations, are the biggest disappointment of the season. And as for the Cowboys, I thought that their defence would doom them to finish no better than third in their division. Dallas is battling not only for a playoff spot, but for a division title, whereas Chicago has settled into a pattern of losing to any decent team, while beating the obviously bad ones (location seems not to be a factor). The Cowboys are a good team, so there's that. My only concern here is that Dallas, coming off a bad loss at home to the Eagles, and looking ahead to next week's big game against... yep, the division-leading Eagles again (this time in Philly) might get caught looking past tonight's game. They'd better not, as they can ill afford to lose any more ground this late in the season. Fortunately for the Cowboys, unlike last week, when the league inexplicably had Dallas play a Sunday night game before their annual Thanksgiving tilt, they'll be the better-rested team tonight. Winner: Cowboys

Mr. Silver is upset with me because I neglected to post his picks for Thursday’s games. He has a right to be. While I was posting a 1-2 record for the American Thanksgiving smorgasbord of football, Mr. Silver correctly picked all three games. Good for you, Mr. Silver, and a thousand pardons for the oversight.

(The previous paragraph leads me to suspect that I am slowly going insane due to silver poisoning.)

Last week, I was 10-5, while Mr. Silver, despite picking the Raiders over the Chiefs, still only finished 7-8. He already has a 2 game lead over me after Thursday’s action. Could this be the week he gets his first victory against me?

Sunday

Washington at Colts

It’s Colt vs. the Colts, as Washington turns back to Colt McCoy at QB, essentially ending Robert Griffin III’s tenure with the club. Indy should have little trouble regardless. Winner: Colts

Titans at Texans

Speaking of sudden QB switcheroos, if you blinked, you might have missed the Ryan Mallet era in Houston. Still, even with Ryan Fitzpatrick behind Center, the Texans should be able to handle the Titans. Winner: Texans

Browns at Bills

The Bills should win this one because their defence will do the job of forcing Brian Hoyer into making mistakes that the Browns’ defence won’t be able to accomplish against Kyle Orton. Winner: Bills

Chargers at Ravens

The Chargers got lucky last week in pulling out a victory against the Rams, but luck won’t be enough as they travel across country to face Baltimore. Winner: Ravens

Giants at Jaguars

Not a lot at stake here save pride, so I expect the Giants to play hard for their coach. Winner: Giants

Bengals at Buccaneers

Cincy should be able to dominate the Bucs on both sides of the ball. Winner: Bengals

Raiders at Rams

It’d be nice to see Oakland win two in a row, but the Rams are the better team, and should still be smarting from their missed opportunity against San Diego last week . Winner: Rams

Saints at Steelers

The Saints haven’t won since October 30th, losing three straight at home against quality teams. Going on the road to face the Steelers, who are fresh off their bye, likely puts the NO in November. Winner: Steelers

Panthers at Vikings

As the Panthers limp towards the end of a disappointing campaign, a visit to Minnesota to face a feisty Vikings squad will only add to Carolina’s misery. Winner: Vikings

Cardinals at Falcons

Arizona sorely missed Larry Fitzgerald in their showdown with the Seahawks in Seattle, looking pitiful on offence. Fitzgerald should be back on the field this week, which will restore the Cards’ offensive balance. Winner: Cardinals

Patriots at Packers

You’ve heard the hype: the Pats have their guy, and he has his guys, but the Pack have a guy too, and he’s got some guys. We’re dealing with a lot of good guys. It’s really hard to pick against the Packers at home, but I believe that New England’s defence is significantly better than Green Bay’s. The Pats’ talent and depth in the secondary will go a long way towards limiting what Aaron Rodgers can do, relative to what Green Bay's defence will be able to manage against Brady and Co. Winner: Patriots

Broncos at Chiefs

It’d be easy to look at KC’s loss to Oakland and think that there’s no way that team could beat the mighty Broncos. Watching the Chiefs-Raiders tilt, this is what I saw; KC started slow, Oakland quickly jumping out to a lead. Then, the rain came, and the Raiders were able to grind out a win. I still like the Chiefs, especially their pass rush. I can’t forget what the Rams did to Peyton Manning two weeks ago, nor have I forgotten the Dolphins scoring 36 points against the Broncs last week. Oh, and Arrowhead; definitely can’t forget that. Winner: Chiefs

Monday Night

Dolphins at Jets

This is just the type of game that Miami always loses, against an inferior opponent, and with major playoff implications. Still, the Dolphins are the better team, and they should win. I just wish I felt better about this one. Winner: Dolphins

 

Mr. Silver’s Picks

Colts

Texans

Browns

Ravens

Jaguars

Bengals

Rams

Steelers

Panthers

Cardinals

Patriots

Broncos

Dolphins