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Week Eleven Picks: Spontaneous Beats Rehearsed

11/21/2015

 
Picture
It could have been worse; he was going to go with a "Red Riding Hood" analogy. Stick with football, big guy.


​Last Week: 7-7

Season: 93-53

Hey, 7-7 might not seem like much, but in a week full of road upsets, and compared to some of the experts (Don Banks of SI’s 4-10 comes to mind; I like Banks; when he screws up, he's the first to say so.), I look like a friggin’ genius.

I would be remiss if I didn’t give a shout-out to Drew Stanton. His moment of unadulterated joy on the Arizona sideline as Andre Ellington rumbled for the clinching score against Seattle was entertaining and fun to watch, and it served as a reminder of just how much these games mean to the players. Can’t wait to see you dancing in the playoffs, Drew.


​Sunday

Raiders at Lions

The Lions won their Super Bowl last week, or as close as they get, by offing the Packers at Lambeau in one of the worst-played games I’ve seen this season. I doubt that Detroit will be able to achieve the level of emotional intensity needed to beat this frisky Oakland squad; in other words, the Lions are due for a letdown. Winner: Raiders

 
Colts at Falcons

Atlanta started strong, but then went on a bit of a stinky streak. I’m counting on the bye week rest to give them a bit of a boost against the Hasselbeck Colts. Winner: Falcons

 
Rams at Ravens

The Rams got surprised by the suddenly competent Bears last week. Not surprising was another sub-par performance by Nick Foles, earning him a benching in favour of Case Keenum. I hate this game; I don’t trust either team, but I have to give the edge to the Rams because of what their defence can do. Winner: Rams

 
Buccaneers at Eagles

Here’s another game I hate. The Eagles are probably better, but I cringe at the thought of betting on any team that has Mark Sanchez behind Center. Of course, Sam Bradford wasn’t doing anything special, so there’s that. <SIGH!> Winner: Eagles

 
Broncos at Bears

Don’t look now, but the Bears are playing well. No really, don’t look; if Jay Cutler sees you looking, he’s liable to start spraying passes all over the place. I’m grudgingly taking Chicago against Denver, which starts unknown quantity Brock Osweiler at QB, and will be playing without DeMarcus Ware. Winner: Bears

 
Jets at Texans

Despite their win over Cincinnati last week, I have a hard time trusting the Texans to muster anything approaching consistency. The Jets’ banged-up secondary will help to keep this close, but this should still be a low-scoring contest. Winner: Jets

 
Panthers (Home)

Carolina’s opponent scored 47 points last week, but most of that came against the historically awful New Orleans defence. Going from the Saints’ defence to the Panthers’ defence will be a rude awakening indeed. Winner: Panthers

 
Cowboys at Dolphins

I know it’s expecting a lot to think that Tony Romo can just come back and start winning again. Another thing I’ve learned, though, is not to pick Miami when they’re expected to win. Winner: Cowboys

 
Chiefs at Chargers

Riding a three-game winning streak, capped by last week’s win over suddenly vulnerable Denver, KC finds itself relevant again in the crowded middle-of-the-pack that is the AFC playoff race. The Chiefs should continue their run against a Chargers team that, though rested after their bye, has lost five straight, and hasn’t looked particularly good in a while. Winner: Chiefs

 
Packers at Vikings

How weird is this? The Vikings are riding high, and the Packers can’t beat Detroit at Lambeau even when the Lions try to gift-wrap the thing for them. This is the type of game where one might expect the upstart to waver, but this one comes down to the simple fact that Minnesota is playing really well, and Green Bay is not playing well at all. Winner: Vikings

 
49ers at Seahawks

As much as they’ve struggled this season, Seattle should still be good enough to comfortably beat the visiting 49ers. Winner: Seahawks

 
Bengals at Cardinals

It was inevitable; after one rough outing in prime time, everyone is jumping off the Bengals’ bandwagon. I’m counting on Cincy to ditch the weird play-calling on offence and stick to the basics; in terms of personnel, they’re as good as any offence in the league. This has the makings of a really entertaining game, and I’m really looking forward to it. Winner: Bengals

 
Monday Night

Bills at Patriots

Buffalo will send everything they’ve got at Brady this week, but the Pats will be ready, as they always seem to be. Business as usual. Winner: Patriots

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