No underdogs this year. No Wild Cards. No weak division winners. No “undeserving” teams. No sixth seeds; not even a fifth, fourth, third, or lowly second. Nothing but number ones invited to this shindig. The NFL’s two top teams, both of which beat their stiffest competition in their respective conference championship games. High-powered offence vs. punishing defence. Record-setting QB and receivers vs. the top defensive secondary.

Welcome to the greatest Super Bowl matchup of all time.

It doesn’t feel like it, though. At least not to me.

Where’s the controversy. The drama. The HYPE! Did I miss it?

The biggest story in the lead up to the big game was Richard Sherman, after his outburst on live TV immediately following the Seahawks’ victory over their hated rival the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. However, the whole controversy devolved into abject stupidity, at which point sanity somehow prevailed and the story fizzled.

Lemme ‘splain… no, there is too much… Lemme summup:

Richard Sherman is a jerk because he gave a choke sign to an opponent then yelled at a pretty, mentally-challenged girl holding a microphone but we don’t know what the other guy said about him so maybe he was justified and isn’t this criticism really just racism and Sherman isn’t really a bad guy I mean how could he be he went to Stanford and got a degree in communications and everything and you don’t know the real guy and there’s two sides to him and you really just need to get to know “Stanford Richard Sherman” because college-educated equals class and intelligence and hey did you read the column he wrote in Peterland and blah blah blah blahblahblah………………….

Oh, and Marshawn Lynch hates reporters and likes Skittles. That should describe everyone, really.

Boring.

Richard Sherman is a physically-gifted, hard-working athlete. He is a very good football player. He may very well be a drug cheat, but I have no proof of that. Off the field, I don’t care a whit about what he does. On the field, he is a jerk. He is a trash-talker. He likes to show-up opponents. He likes to disrespect opponents. He represents everything that is good and bad about the game itself, and therefore everything I like and dislike about it.

That’s enough about that. It’s time to talk about the game.

NFL Championship Game

Seahawks at Broncos, Snoopy Stadium, New Joisy, USA

These two teams are really evenly-matched. Picking a winner is tough, kind of like guessing which of two Sean Bean characters would win a fight to the death. To me, it’s simple. It’s all about the QBs. No matter what kind of offence you run, no matter your team’s strengths, tendencies, talents, it all begins with the man behind center. He touches the ball on every play. He runs the show. He has to make some plays. Maybe a lot, maybe a whole lot. Russell Wilson is undeniably talented. He has a strong arm. He’s smart. He’s quick. He can make plays with his feet, scrambling, buying time, avoiding pressure, or just running with the ball. He can also make mistakes. He’s young. He most likely still hasn’t fully absorbed the magnitude of this game.

This really is Peyton Manning’s season. He has been getting ready for this game all year. He’s a machine, a cyborg, the Quarterbot 18. He’s the computer who wore cleats. Yes, the Seahawks’ defence is deep, talented, well-coached, hard-hitting, and prepared. How prepared can you be, though, against a player who is playing the game on as high a level as Peyton is now? As good as the Seahawks are, they have to react to Peyton and his offence. Peyton gives so many looks, knows so many wrinkles, has an unparalleled command of the game, sees things so well. When I’ve watched him this season, especially against New England in the AFC Championship, he looked like the only player on the field. And by that, I mean that the other players, on both teams, were merely pieces in a game he was playing by himself. He’s that locked in.

That’s how I see this game. Make no mistake; this Seahawks defence is everything it’s advertised to be, and they will make it extremely challenging for Manning to do the things he wants to do. The going will not be easy for the Broncos offence. Manning’s pieces, and he has some really great pieces (not a pawn in the bunch) will have to execute against a defence that will push them, challenge them, punish them, even hurt them. Peyton will do his thing. This is the ultimate challenge, and he loves it.

The key to the Seahawks’ chances is Russell Wilson. Seattle’s defence will do everything it can to give Wilson the chance to make the plays he needs to make to win. He won’t be up to the challenge. It’s no knock on him.

There’s no shame in not being Peyton Manning, unless you are Peyton Manning.

Oh, and I’m rooting for Champ Bailey in this one. Guy needs a ring.

Seahawks 23, Broncos 30

Or, as my friend Chad might say, “Who ya got?”

(And… that’s it. I had planned a much longer intro, but, life’s like that sometimes. Enjoy the games, folks. Should be a couple of doozies. –G)

AFC Championship

Patriots at Broncos

This is Peyton Manning’s year, the year where it all came together for him on offence. You could make a very strong case that he has never had this much depth at the receiver positions, but perhaps his single greatest asset was versatile back Knowshon Moreno, who rushed for over 1000 yards and 10 TDs, caught another 60 balls, and is a good blocker. With all the weapons at his disposal, Manning led a record-breaking attack. You don’t stop this Broncos offence. You have to limit its chances. This Patriots team has more depth and talent in its secondary than it has had in quite some time, including some ball-hawks who have shown a knack for making QBs and receivers pay for mistakes. This will prove invaluable, as the Pats need to focus on getting pressure on Manning and limiting Moreno. Another key to limiting the Broncos’ offensive effectiveness will be the Pats’ ability to move the ball, control the clock, score points, and keep Manning off the field. Much has been said about the emergence of LeGarrette Blount. He is ridiculously fast and agile for a 250-pound man, the perfect back making the most of a great opportunity, operating behind great blocking, in an offence run by an all-time great QB, and with plenty of depth behind him at the running back position. Not only are the Broncos not a good defensive team, but they don’t really excel in any particular area. This Pats’ offence should have little difficulty controlling the tempo of the game. In the end, it will come down to execution. I have to look at the players on both sides. This may not be Peyton Manning’s year after all. Winner: Patriots

NFC Championship

49ers at Seahawks

When I look at these two offences, I see a lot of similarities. Both feature strong line play, powerful running backs, and mobile QBs. The 49ers have an advantage in terms on their receiving corps; WRs Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis are better than anything that the Seahawks have at their disposal. At RB, I’d take Marshawn Lynch over Frank Gore. I also like Russell Wilson a bit better than Colin Kaepernick at QB, simply because I think Wilson is smarter and less likely to make mistakes. Everyone knows that these are two of the best defensive teams in football, so how do the defences match up against the offences they have to face? The Seahawks’ secondary may be the best in the NFL, a physical group that covers well. If Kaepernick doesn’t get the looks he likes on passing downs, he is quick to resort to running. Seattle’s secondary allows them to game plan for this eventuality, as well as to devote the necessary personnel to stopping Frank Gore. The key to San Fran’s defensive strategy has to be stopping Marshawn Lynch. Their strength at the defensive line and LB positions will help them tremendously, and will force Wilson to make more plays to keep the Seahawks’ offence moving. I believe that Wilson is up to the task, and that he will be helped by facing a 49ers secondary that does not cover well. Again, it’s about execution. In a close game, in the sonic crucible of CenturyLink Field, I’ll take Russell Wilson over Colin Kaepernick. Winner: Seahawks

In case you’ve been living under a rock (or, in the case of my home country, the “True North strong and free,” a snowbank), the NFL’s playoff seeding format is a mess, the wrong teams made the postseason, good teams have to play road games against bad teams, and the playoffs are going to suck, again, just like every year. Pity the poor San Francisco 49ers, winners of 12 games, being forced to test themselves in the sub-zero (yes, even sub-American-zero) temperatures of Lambeau against the 8 win (and one tie) Green Bay Packers. And as if that alone wasn’t enough to convince you of what a travesty this Wild Card round will be, the 11-win New Orleans Saints have to play their opening round game OUTSIDE FOR GOSH SAKES against a Philadelphia Eagles team that only managed to win 10 games this season! We can only hope that the Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers, the deserving top two seeds in the NFC, make it to the conference championship game, or otherwise the regular season will have been rendered a pointless sham.

However, even though all of the attention is focused on the NFC, it’s the AFC where things are really wrong. So, in honour of all the people crying that the regular season should matter more and that changes have to be made when the end result isn’t what we want, I have taken the liberty of re-seeding the AFC so that an emphasis is placed on regular season results and so it’s fair. You’re welcome.

Since it’s Wild Card Weekend, let’s start with those wild cards, the Chiefs and the Chargers. Chiefs, you’re good. Chargers, we all know the only reason you’re in is because you got a bogus non-call (which the league admitted to) to win your week 17 game. Now, I was about to say that the league should retroactively take away that victory, but since the beneficiary team would be the Steelers, and the referee in question was Bill Leavy, I say retribution is a dish best served extremely cold, so suck it, Steelers. Chargers, you’re good too, and Mike Tomlin, use the extra time to learn the subtleties of not wandering on to the field while the players are, you know, playing.

The Denver Broncos earned the top seed based on their 13-3 record. Sorry, not good enough. I mean, it’s not really fair that the Broncos finish ahead of the Patriots, since the Pats beat them in Week 12. So, let’s swap them. Then, of course, there’s the matter of the Bengals. They beat the Pats, and they also beat AFC South champs the Colts, who also beat the Broncos. Regular season results should count, right? Congratulations, Cincy, you’re number one now. That leaves the Pats at two, Colts at three, and Broncs at four.

That’s much better, right?

I’ve read some pretty interesting takes on what’s wrong with the playoff seeding format this week. I’m not going to link to any of them; these guys get enough attention as it is, and I’m not giving them any more free advertising. My take, which I touched on last week: it is what it is. If you listened to the experts, the NFL would have a format completely based on won-lost records, or with the caveat thrown in that division winners automatically get a playoff berth, but then get seeded based on their record. So, the 49ers and Saints playing home games this weekend would be justice, but the 10-6 Cardinals making it over the 8-7-1 Packers would not? See, this is the thing that gets me about the media whining about playoff seeding EVERY YEAR; unless you can come up with a perfect solution, it’s probably better if you leave things as they are.

When I look at the Green Bay Packers, this year’s “problem,” I see a team that:

• Was 5-2 after Week 8
  
• Had Aaron Rodgers suffer a broken clavicle in a Week 9 loss against division-rival Chicago
• Went 2-4-1 over their next seven games without the best QB in the NFL
• Won a winner-take-all finale against the Bears with Rodgers playing for the first time since his injury
  

So, I guess what I’m trying to say is that I’m not too broken up over Green Bay, and Rodgers, being in the playoffs, or even hosting a game. If you look at the Packers, they’re clearly better than their record.

Tinker with the playoff seeding format if you want. You’ll never make everyone happy. More importantly, the media will always find something to complain about. Don’t believe the hype.

Oh, and the playoffs are going to be awesome again. Just like every year.

Saturday

Chiefs at Colts

With LB Justin Houston expected to make his return, the Chiefs’ pass rush should be better than the one that Andrew Luck faced two weeks ago in KC. LB Tamba Hali will not play, however, which should make Houston easier to handle. The Colts defence seems to have returned to its early-season form as the secondary has gotten healthier. Since the Chiefs have no real big-play threat at receiver, this will make it easier for the Colts to focus on stopping Jamaal Charles. That should be the difference in what should be a competitive game. Winner: Colts

Saints at Eagles

It’s easy to say that I should pick the Eagles because the Saints are playing on the road, outside, in the cold. So that’s exactly what I’m saying; I’m picking the Eagles because the Saints are playing on the road, outside, in the cold. As long as Eagles’ QB NickFoleon Dynamite doesn’t experience an “Ohmygod I’m in the playoffs!”-Spaz Attack, Philly should be able to outpoint Drew Brees and company. Winner: Eagles

Sunday

Chargers at Bengals

Congratulations San Diego! Now, meet your destroyer. For me, this game comes down to the fact that, while both teams can score tons on offence, the Chargers’ defence is not very good, and the Bengals’ defence is. As long as Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton doesn’t experience an “Ohmygod I’m in the playoffs!”-Spaz Attack, Cincy should be fine. Winner: Bengals

49ers at Packers

This one’s easy, right? What, haven’t you heard? The 49ers are much better than the Packers. The 49ers own the Packers. The only thing that gives the Packers a chance is the cold. Seriously though, that 49ers defence is awfully good. In the bitter cold, that’s a huge advantage. Still, I’m going to act like the huge Rodgers fanboy that I am and pick the Green Bay. The Packers’ secondary just might be healthy enough to allow their defence to focus on taking care of business up front. Plus, we all know that, if the ‘niners’ defence does have a weakness, it’s in the secondary. Winner: Packers

To begin this week, let’s cast our memories back a few seasons.

A team, bolstered by a 6-0 record against one mediocre and two awful divisional opponents, finished 9-7, easily won their division, qualified for the playoffs over several teams with equal or better records, and secured a home playoff game in the first round. I remember there was some discussion about whether this team “deserved” to be in the playoffs, hosting an 11-5 team to boot. The playoff seeding system needed to be overhauled to keep teams like this out and reward better teams, obviously. It was an absolute travesty. Pity flowed freely for poor teams like the 11-5 New England Patriots who were shut out of the postseason. Of course, this same team beat the 11-5 Atlanta Falcons in the first round, went all the way to the Super Bowl, and came within seconds of becoming champs. Also, they were as exciting as hell.

I mean, does anyone remember the 2009 Arizona Cardinals, featuring Kurt Warner and the nigh unstoppable Larry Fitzgerald? I know I do.

I only bring this up because here we are again, with one week left before the playoffs, and not much has changed. The Cardinals could win this week, finishing at 11-5, and still miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, a 10-6 or 9-7 team will win the NFC East, and a 9-7 or 8-7-1 team will win the NFC North. There’s been a lot of talk this week about the poor Cards, and how unfair the playoff seeding system is. It’s a very common narrative that the media loves to trot out to make it seem like they’re doing their due diligence by criticizing the league that they spend most of their time glorifying. With injuries, scheduling quirks, weather anomalies, and other unforeseen circumstances, won-loss records don’t always give an accurate representation of which are the better teams. Don’t believe me? Three years after the Arizona Cardinals became the first 9-7 team to make the Super Bowl, the 9-7 New York Giants, who qualified for the playoffs on the last day of the season, beat the Pats to become Super Bowl champs. I won’t shed too many tears for the teams that don’t make the postseason this year. It’s the NFL; there are always good teams that get left out. If anything, it’s an indicator of the quality of the teams in the league. As a fan of the game, I’m happy about that.

Jaguars at Colts

You have to love the Jags. They demonstrate the pride and quality of the type of player who is good enough to make it all the way to the NFL. They played this season with determination and a will not finish in last place, as many expected. I’m waiting for the early-season Colts to return, the giant-slayers who, over a 4-week period, beat the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos. They looked good against the Chiefs last week, hopefully a sign of things to come. Winner: Colts

Lions at Vikings

This is a “who cares” game. The Vikes go without Adrian Peterson. I love the Lions. They make me look like a friggin’ genius regularly through their ineptitude. I’m of two minds when it comes to Head Coach Jim Schwartz; he should be fired, because he is terrible, but I hope they keep him, because he’s terrible. Tie

Browns at Steelers

Did you know that the 7-8 Steelers still have a shot, albeit slim, at the playoffs? They’ll play hard. Winner: Steelers

Panthers at Falcons

With their huge win over the Saints last week, Carolina has a shot at a division title and a first-round bye. All they have to do is take care of their own business. Winner: Panthers

Washington at Giants

Completely meaningless game. I can’t even guess at any motivation for the players. Note to the Giants’ organization: fire Coughlin at your peril. Tie

Texans at Titans

A Houston loss will secure for them the number one pick in next year’s draft. As they’ve screwed everything else up this season… Winner: Texans

Ravens at Bengals

The Ravens need to win to have a shot at the playoffs. It’s that simple. However, don’t overlook the Bengals’ motivations in this one. Cincy still has a shot at a first-round bye. That aside, I’d be willing to bet that the prospect of ending Baltimore’s season is all the extra motivation that the Bengals need. Winner: Bengals

Jets at Dolphins

I’m sure that the Jets would love nothing more at this point than to play playoff spoilers, but Miami’s pass rush will be enough to snuff that notion. Winner: Dolphins

Buccaneers at Saints

In theory, the Bucs have the chance to knock the Saints out of the playoffs. I expect New Orleans to prevail at home, though. Winner: Saints

Chiefs at Chargers

The Chargers still have an outside shot at the postseason, while the Chiefs’ playoff seeding is set. San Diego is the obvious choice here. Funny thing about the NFL though: even second-stringers don’t just roll over, and pressure doesn’t always make diamonds. Winner: Chiefs

Rams at Seahawks

Opponents’ defence troubles Seattle, but there’s not much trouble here. Winner: Seahawks

49ers at Cardinals

I thought that the Cards would lose in Seattle last week, based on the fact that Carson Palmer would turn the ball over too many times. I was right about the turnovers, but the Cards’ defence rendered that moot. I don’t like Colin Kaepernick against a really good defence, and I doubt that will change anytime soon. Winner: Cardinals

Broncos at Raiders

Winner: Broncos

Packers at Bears

While I’m testing your memory, do you remember the Packers’ most recent Super Bowl campaign? Aaron Rodgers was forced to sit out a couple of games due to his second concussion of the season, and the Packers needed to win their final two games of the season just to qualify as the 6th seed. Their Week 17 opponent that year: Da’ Bears. For this game, Rodgers is making his first appearance since he suffered a broken clavicle in Week 9. Fortunately for Rodgers, the Packers’ run game should be enough to secure a victory here. Winner: Packers

Bills at Patriots

The Pats are properly motivated here, with a first-round bye at stake. Winner: Patriots















Eagles at Cowboys

I’d have picked the Eagles anyway, with or without Romo, because of the absence of Sean Lee. Winner: Eagles

Stay tuned for my playoff preview later this week.

A real football fan enjoys the game, and doesn’t need a lot of hype to get excited. For the casual fan, the media always has an angle. For a lot of games, if you’ve been watching football long enough, you can almost predict what the story will be before the hype even begins.

Take Peyton Manning for example. If his team is playing, and the forecast calls for cold weather, what are you going to hear about? If you said, “Peyton Manning can’t win in the cold,” or something like that, then you’ve been paying attention. Is it true? I don’t know. You can bet, however, that whoever is doing the talking will have statistics, those double-agents that lie for both sides, to back them up.

Me, I go by what I see. Streaks and ancient history don’t mean a lot to me. I stick with what I know, and, when it comes to Peyton Manning and cold weather, I only know two things.

The first has to do with last season’s AFC Divisional Playoff Game, played between the Broncos and Ravens in frigid conditions at Mile High Stadium. As the game wore on, Manning looked progressively worse. His passes seemed to lack the zip he had displayed throughout the season. Toward the end of the 4th quarter, the Broncos passed up an opportunity to drive to score the winning points in regulation, choosing instead to take their chances in overtime. During the coin toss before the extra session, Manning looked visibly miserable. Granted, this was Manning’s 17th game of a season in which he came back after multiple neck surgeries and a year away from the game. Manning has been phenomenal this season, and thus far has shown no signs of slowing down.

The other thing I know is something that I only discovered this week, and it is significant. Whatever you or I or the media think about the cold weather issue ultimately means nothing. However, what Manning thinks is another matter, and now I know that it bothers him. Listen to this short clip (specifically, from 0:38 to 1:10) from an interview with Manning after his Broncos whipped the Titans 51-28. When the subject is broached, he immediately becomes flustered and shows a bit of an edge. I was surprised by this. I’m used to Peyton the QB machine, the computer in cleats. As much as he might want people to believe that it doesn’t bother him, as much as he wants to believe it himself, his instinctive, unguarded reaction is very telling.

Will this become an issue in the playoffs? Manning has performed extremely well in the cold at Mile High this season. However, the Broncos’ upset loss to the Chargers this past Thursday handed control of the top AFC seed race to the New England Patriots. Foxborough, especially in the playoffs, is a whole different kind of cold for Manning. It’s in his head. I know it now.

So, what are the other stories in Week 15? Here’s my take. No hype required.

 

Texans at Colts

Can the Colts regain the early-season form that had them looking like world-beaters, before injuries brought them crashing down, in time for the playoffs? Lately, there seems like no better cure for a team’s woes than to play the Texans. Winner: Colts

49ers at Buccaneers

Can the 49ers stave off the hard-charging Cardinals and make it back to the playoffs? Tampa will be a tough test, especially for a San Francisco team travelling clear across the country. The ‘niners need to keep their edge over Arizona, lest their Week 17 face off become a winner-take-all affair. Winner: 49ers

Seahawks at Giants

Will we be seeing this Seahawks team in New Jersey again in February? Seattle has the inside track for the top seed in the NFC, and are extremely tough to beat at home. The disappointing Giants are playing out the string. Winner: Seahawks

Eagles at Vikings

Are the Eagles poised to take the NFC East title? Philly currently holds a one game lead over Dallas. The Vikings may be without Adrian Peterson this week. Either way, I don’t think it matters. Winner: Eagles

Bills at Jaguars

If they decided not to play this game at all, would it matter? I mean, both teams are 4-9. They could simulate it on a video game, or play board games or something. It would save wear and tear on the players’ bodies. Haven’t there been enough injuries this season? Tie

Bears at Browns

Can Jay Cutler lead Chicago to a division crown? Somehow (OK, the Lions helped a lot) the Bears are still in the hunt for the NFC North title. They’ll be facing a Browns team coming off a “What just happened?” loss to New England. Winner: Bears

Patriots at Dolphins

Can Miami improve its playoff chances while taking a huge Dolphin-crap on the gift the Chargers handed the Pats by beating the Broncos? New England has been in this position before; win out, and the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxborough. Winner: Patriots

Washington at Falcons

How will Washington react to the RGIII shutdown? Really, Kirk Cousins starting at QB is the only thing keeping this game from being relegated to the same status as the Bills/Jags clash. I’m going with the new blood. Winner: Washington

Chiefs at Raiders

Can the Chiefs stay healthy enough for a good run at the playoffs? Realistically, KC has no chance to catch Denver for the division lead, as the Broncs finish their season against Houston and Oakland. I still say that, healthy, this Chiefs team is a nightmare matchup for anyone in the playoffs, particularly with its top pass rushers in top form. Winner: Chiefs

Jets at Panthers

How will the Panthers bounce back after a tough loss to the Saints? Carolina will be just fine, thanks. As for Geno Smith, well, I envision a slew of turnovers, leading to an ugly loss. Winner: Panthers

Cardinals at Titans

Can the surging Cardinals keep pace with the 49ers? All Arizona can do at this point is handle their own business and hope for some help from one of San Fran’s opponents. Winner: Cardinals

Saints at Rams

Can the Saints make the Super Bowl without winning the NFC number one seed? Though the Saints are iffy on the road, this game’s in a dome, against an offence with not nearly as much firepower. Potential playoff destination Seattle will not be nearly as accommodating. Winner: Saints

Packers at Cowboys

Can the Cowboys catch Philadelphia in the NFC East Race? Is there any point to Aaron Rodgers playing again this season? Whichever team loses here is surely out of playoff contention. The Dallas defence will once again be without Sean Lee, so Tony Romo et al will have to shoot it out. I like their chances. Winner: Cowboys

Bengals at Steelers

Has everyone forgotten about the Bengals, and do they prefer it that way? Cincy seems to be peaking again at just the right time. How sweet would it be to drive the final (steel) nail into the coffin of Pittsburgh’s season? Winner: Bengals

Monday Night

Ravens at Lions

Are the Ravens going to be around to defend their title? If Detroit blows the NFC North, how many Lions will be arrested in the offseason? Ravens in a big, nationally-televised game vs. Lions in a big, nationally-televised game. Never go against your core beliefs. Winner: Ravens (Loser: Lions)

My friend Chad and I were discussing the Fantasy Football potential of some of the wideouts he had the option of starting in Week 14. So, as a sort of introduction, I thought I’d play around with a new feature and see if I could get any of my readers to respond to a poll. Just choose the WR you think will do the best this week, then, if you wish, you can also comment below or tweet to me @GFHowie. Hope to hear from you, and enjoy Week 14.

Colts at Bengals

What’s cooler than being cool? Ice Colt (Go ahead… roll your eyes). Sure, Indy’s been 3-2 since their bye, but their wins were squeakers against the Texans (they of the now 10-game losing streak) and the Titans (x2), and they were hammered by the Rams and Cardinals. The Bengals have been hot and cold, have had to deal with devastating injuries on defence, but appear to have turned a corner. That’s what good teams do. Winner: Bengals

Lions at Eagles

The Eagles are a team on the rise. They seem to have their offence figured out now that Nick Foles has settled in as starting QB. Do I even have to say anything else about the Lions at this point? Winner: Eagles

Raiders at Jets

To say that the Jets have struggled on offence lately would be putting it mildly. Still, the Raiders aren’t what I’d call good, so there’s no way I’m picking them on the road in “Joisy.” Now, if Terrelle Pryor were playing… Winner: Jets

Vikings at Ravens

The Ravens have decided that they’re not quite finished defending their title, and are inching closer to a Wild Card berth. I’m invoking “The Joe Rule” here; Baltimore wins at home. Winner: Ravens

Bills at Buccaneers

Before they ran into a buzzsaw in Carolina last week, the Bucs had been playing some pretty good football. The Bills haven’t been, having most recently blown one to the Falcons in their annual “Home Game in Hogtown.” Winner: Buccaneers

Browns at Patriots

So, the Browns could not overcome Brandon Weeden last week, so it’s back to the bench for him, as Jason Campbell steps behind centre again. No danger of the Pats losing focus here; with only four weeks to play, they are in prime position for a top 2 seed and its concomitant first round bye. Winner: Patriots

Chiefs at Washington

Tough stretch for the once 9-0 Chiefs, losers of three straight. They experienced some key losses on defence due to injury, and their weakened pass rush resulted in sound thrashings at the hands of Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. A trip to Washington to face Sir Robert Griffin the Third, Duke of (in a) Funk (anyone get that reference?) should be just the thing to stop that pesky losing skid. Winner: Chiefs

Dolphins at Steelers

Let’s see what we have in this mish-mash:  two teams with faint (and fainter) playoff hopes; Dolphins team that’s competitive every week; Steelers team that has gotten better after a slow start; game in Pittsburgh. The deciding factor for me is an odd one: the “Everyone hates us because our coach cheated,” factor. Sometimes, issues like this cause major distractions, other times, they bind teams together. Mike Tomlin’s players like him, I think. Winner: Steelers

Falcons at Packers

Packers’ hopes are fading fast. Personally, I kind of hope they shut Aaron Rodgers down for the season now. Even with him, I don’t believe that Green Bay is good enough to go very far in the playoffs. If they can’t beat the Falcons, even without Rodgers, the Pack doesn’t deserve to be there anyway. Winner: Packers

Titans at Broncos

I still say this Broncos team can be had. The Colts and the Pats proved it. They’re a bit out of Tennesee’s league, though. Winner: Broncos

Rams at Cardinals

The Cards’ defence, and their starting QB’s un-CarsonPalmery play of late, makes Arizona a tough match for anyone right now. Winner: Cardinals

Giants at Chargers

Oh Tom Coughlin, you seductive bastard. You think you can win a few games, bat your eyes at me, and make me think your Giants can beat the Chargers on the road. What, is that cologne I smell? Forget it. I can’t be had that easily, even if I want to be. Winner: Chargers

Seahawks at 49ers

Seattle has been beating up on weaklings lately, and yes, that includes New Orleans and their overrated defence (coached by the overrated Rob Ryan). The 49ers defence is a serious step-up in opposition. That, plus the return of San Fran WR Michael Crabtree, be it as difference-maker or decoy, will swing this close contest. Winner: 49ers

Panthers at Saints

Big test for Carolina this week. I like the matchup. They have the tools and the talent. If they’re prepared and focused, they can beat the Saints easily. Winner: Panthers

Monday Night

Cowboys at Bears

I see no reason why Romo and Co. can’t light up this Bears’ defence. LB Sean Lee, arguably the Cowboys’ most important player, returns to the lineup. That’s the game in a nutshell, folks. Winner: Cowboys

Geez! What a season.

By Week 13, you’d expect things to be a bit clearer, as the wheat separates itself from the chaff. However, in this campaign, which at times has seemed to be more about surviving than winning, we have the following:

• Several teams in the AFC with 5-6 records vying for the final playoff spot, with teams at 4-7 (and one at 5-7) still hanging on.
• Preseason favourite Houston on a 9-game losing streak (with the 8-3 Pats coming to town), and tied for last place in the conference with Jacksonville.
• Brandon “Him Again?” Weeden making his third appearance at the top of the Browns’ QB depth chart, after injuries felled the last two guys who replaced him for sucking.
• The Panthers on a 7-game winning streak, and challenging for a division crown and a top-two seed in the NFC.
• Aaron Rodgers watching from the sidelines while his Packers haven’t won in a month.
• The 49ers fighting for their playoff lives instead of for first place.
• The Lions leading their division.
• The Falcons, losers of 5 straight, with the worst record in the NFC.
  

We’re getting closer to the finish. Something’s got to give. Let’s hope it’s not another player’s body. Healthy players make for better football.  It’d be nice to see some teams in the thick of the playoff races get back some of their nicked-up players, just to make things more interesting.

 

Patriots at Texans

Last week, I explained why the Texans playing at home is bad, and picked the Jags to beat them. Don’t expect the Pats to show them any mercy. Winner: Patriots

Bears at Vikings

The Bears’ run defence is so terrible it would make any RB look like an all-star, so it stands to reason that if they commit the necessary personnel to try and stop Adrian Peterson, it won’t take an all-star QB to shred them. Winner: Vikings

Jaguars at Browns

The Browns’ defence should be good enough for the team to survive the visiting Jags, provided, of course, that they can survive their own starting QB, Brandon Weeden. Winner: Browns

Buccaneers at Panthers

The Panthers must be salivating about their game against the Saints next week, but they’d better not get caught looking ahead when they face a game Tampa squad this week, or next week’s game won’t mean nearly as much. Winner: Panthers

Dolphins at Jets

Though I’m iffy about picking the Dolphins on the road, I see their pass rush as the deciding factor, especially against turnover-prone Jets’ QB Geno Smith. Winner: Dolphins

Titans at Colts

Doesn’t it seem like forever ago that the Colts looked like a Super Bowl favourite after kicking the crap out of teams like the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos? They’ve been outscored 108-49 in their past three games, going 1-2 in process. They had better find a way to turn things around again, or they will have a very short playoff run, assuming they make it there. Winner: Colts

Cardinals at Eagles

The Cards have put themselves in the thick of the playoff race by reeling off four straight wins, but I’m not convinced that they can keep that streak going on the road against the Eagles with Nick Foles behind centre. Winner: Eagles

Falcons at (Toronto) Bills

I’ll take a Bills’ team that does a few things right at “home” against a Falcons’ team that can’t do anything right. Winner: Bills

Rams at 49ers

The Rams ran roughshod over the Bears last week, but the ‘niners’ defence is a significant upgrade in opposition. The difference should be a harsh dose of reality. Winner: 49ers

Bengals at Chargers

With their injury-depleted defence and Jekyll and Hyde offence, I have a bad feeling that the Bengals are in for a long day against the mercurial Chargers offence. Winner: Chargers

Broncos at Chiefs

After their game at Mile High two weeks ago, I was eagerly anticipating this quick rematch. However, last week against the Chargers, we discovered that the loss of its two dominant pass rushers, Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, makes the Chiefs defence very ordinary. Houston won’t play this week, and Hali is listed as “Questionable” after practising minimally this week. Ordinary defence won’t cut it against the Broncos. Winner: Broncos

Giants at Washington

Last week, I picked against the Giants and I actually got it right for a change. They should bounce back nicely this week against Washington. Winner: Giants

Monday Night

Saints at Seahawks

This is a huge matchup in terms of playoff ramifications The Saints currently are the number two seed in the NFC at 9-2; the only team ahead of them are these same Seahawks at 10-1. Both teams enjoy a marked home field advantage, making the number one seed of vital importance. So, do I go with the Seahawks at home, or do I envision Drew Brees capitalizing on Seattle’s depleted secondary? I think that the Seahawks will follow the blueprint laid out for them by Bill Belichick and neutralize Saints’ TE Jimmy Graham, perhaps with a heavy dose of CB Richard Sherman. That, plus the Saints playing on the road in a really tough environment should be enough. Winner: Seahawks

It’s American Thanksgiving once again. If you watch any amount of TV from the states, you know that this holiday means a lot to our neighbours to the south. It’s that special day when they give thanks for the opportunity to stuff themselves with food until they almost burst, then prepare for the orgy of crass consumerism known as “Black Friday.”

Oh, America. You know I love you. I kid because I love.

For me, and the thousands of Canadians like me (as well as a lot of Americans too), American Thanksgiving means Football with an upper-case “F!”

Now, before I get to my picks, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention my favourite game from week 12: the Buccaneers at Detroit. In my column last weekend, I wrote:


I find it hard to trust the Lions anyway, but as divisional frontrunners, with so much at stake, they’re bound to screw up somehow. Winner: Buccaneers

So, did you watch the game? I did, and I loved every exquisite minute of it. I know that I said that the Lions would find a way to screw up, but I couldn’t have imagined it would be so epic. Matt Stafford threw 4 INTs (including a deadly pick-6 at the end of the first half), and the Lions also had a punt blocked and a weird fumble in the 4th quarter to basically hand the game to the Bucs. Tampa let them hang around, though, refusing to put them away, missing two field goals in the 4th, and allowing Detroit one last drive to tie or win it. And down the field went the Lions, moving into field goal range, but still hoping to keep the drive alive by converting a long 3rd down. So there’s Stafford, under pressure, backpedaling, throwing up a prayer (like he’s done so many times before) to the unstoppable Megatron… and… HE MAKES THE CATCH FOR THE FIRST DOWN!!!

Then he fumbles. The best receiver in the NFL fumbles.

Game over.

The Detroit Lions.

There’s probably not a team in the league I like to root against more. I’ve written about it many times before. Their head coach is dumb, and possibly mentally unbalanced (apparently I’m not the only one who has negative opinions of the guy). Their defensive coordinator is a jerk, and he presides over a collection of the most undisciplined players in the league. And, not to belabour the point (anyone who reads me regularly should know what I think), Ndamukong Suh is a legitimately dangerous individual who may very well have some sort of personality disorder.

The Detroit Lions. There’s no love. I’m not kidding.

Which brings us to:

Packers at Lions

It’s week 13, and the Detroit Lions are the very embodiment of that number; bad luck for themselves, and bad luck for any player who runs afoul of their idiotic defensive front four. Hell, they even have a player, Nate Burleson, who wears number 13. Here they are, with another chance to seize control over the NFC North, against a Green Bay team without Aaron Rodgers. I’m not worried about the Packers’ ability to move the ball on offence; Matt Flynn proved last week that he’s still a capable QB, and he’s back in a familiar system where he has had success in the past. Also, Green Bay’s wonderful rookie RB Eddie Lacy has had an impressive campaign thus far. I’m a bit more worried about Green Bay’s ability to stop the Lions’ offence, especially Calvin Johnson. On paper, this looks like a Detroit victory. I’m basing this pick a bit on hope and a bit on expectation. I hope that the Packers can hang around long enough to get Rodgers back, because it would be a shame to have the league’s best QB sitting at home during the playoffs. I expect the Lions to screw up. Is it too much to ask them to do it so epically three weeks in a row (I didn’t forget the Steelers’ fiasco)? Probably. Still… Winner: Packers

Raiders at Cowboys

I have much less to say about this game. The Cowboys, for all their struggles, are clearly the better team, are playing at home, and are in the thick of the NFC East race. Winner: Cowboys

Steelers at Ravens

Baltimore wins at home, loses on the road. That’s been the pattern. However, with a rivalry like Steelers/Ravens, you can toss that out the window. The Ravens’ offence is bad, particularly the running game. The Steelers, despite a bad start to the season, have turned themselves around and, though not elite, are competitive every week. Right now, Pittsburgh is the better team, and they should be able to grind out a victory to remain in the playoff picture. Winner: Steelers


Happy Thanksgiving to all of my American family, friends, and readers.

Just a quick look at the standings will tell anyone that this is a week when a lot of teams are going to have to turn it up a notch. In the AFC: the once-unassailable Pats find themselves hotly-pursued by their arch-rivals, the Jets; the injury-plagued Bengals face a head-to-head challenge from their top division challenger, Cleveland; the Chiefs travel to Denver in search of a win and respect, and; the Chargers, Ravens, and Dolphins just hope to stay in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, in the NFC: the Bears and Packers, without their number one QBs, have to find a way to keep pace with the North-controlling Lions; the Saints hope to hold off the surging Panthers in the South; the Cardinals are still holding out hope for a wild card berth, and; the East, amazingly, is still any team’s for the taking.

This is the time of year when teams need to dig deep. Through, adversity, pressure, injuries, even when they think they’ve given it all they can, they have to ask themselves, “Where can we go from here?” They have to find a way to find that little extra push over the cliff. Should make for some exciting football.

Lions at Steelers

The Steelers are tough at home, but their defence is a shadow of its former self, and the Lions can move the ball. On offence, the Steelers lack of an effective running game means that Ben Roethlisberger will be running for his life against Detroit’s daunting front four. Winner: Lions

Browns at Bengals

Bengals’ fans must be wondering if the team is jinxed (Any Bengals’ fans want to chime in here?); few teams have struggled as much with injuries to key players. The pressure is really on Cincy’s offence this week, as the suddenly too-close-for-comfort Browns come to town. Cleveland has proven to be a dangerous foe when QBs not named Brandon Weeden are behind centre. Cagey veteran Jason Campbell will make this a tough test for the Bengals, in what should be a close contest. Winner: Bengals

Raiders at Texans

My favourite new player this season is out, as is Darren McFadden, thus alleviating my fear of picking Houston to do anything but self-destruct. Winner: Texans

Falcons at Buccaneers

I always find these games so tough to pick; two teams going nowhere. Tampa looks like the better choice, from a healthy talent perspective, and they’re playing at home. Winner: Buccaneers

Jets at Bills

The Jets’ tough defence against a Buffalo offence that may have to resort to pulling people out of the stands to play wideout is the deciding factor in this one, even though the thought of taking hot-then-cold rookie QB Geno Smith on the road makes me cringe. Look out Pats; here come the Jets. Winner: Jets

Ravens at Bears

Because of the Bears’ putrid defence, I was leaning toward the Ravens, until I heard that the weather in Chicago is supposed to be nasty, with thunderstorms followed by high winds. I’m going with reliable Josh McCown and Chicago’s superior running attack leading the way. And besides, my buddy Joe insists that the Ravens can’t win on the road. Winner: Bears

Washington at Eagles

Philly’s offence, which looked stagnant only a few short weeks ago, has been humming along again with Nick Foles running things. The Eagles should be able to light up the porous Washington defence like an early Christmas tree, giving Philly fans the treat of a rare home win. Winner: Eagles

Cardinals at Jaguars

Congratulations on winning last weekend, Jaguars. You may now relax and return to losing. I hope you get a really good player in next year’s draft. Winner: Cardinals

Chargers at Dolphins

The Dolphins are done. Poor Ryan Tannehill was one of the worst-protected QBs in the league BEFORE his terrible offensive line was revealed to be the NFL-equivalent of “Mean Girls.” Not only am I picking San Diego, but I’m going on record that I hope Miami loses all of their remaining home games. Their asshole fans deserve that. Winner: Chargers

Vikings at Seahawks

I don’t anticipate Seattle having much difficulty handling the Vikings in the noisy confines of CenturyLink Field. Winner: Seahawks

Packers at Giants

In the less-than-stellar NFC East, the 3-6 Giants are still a viable playoff contender. Green Bay is another of those teams that has seen its high hopes severely hindered by injuries to its best players. The Packers have to try to keep pace with the division-leading Lions. If ever there was a week for the Packers’ defence to come through with a superior effort, this is it. They need to pressure Eli Manning, force some turnovers, and let the running game grind out a victory. Expect a close game. Winner: Packers

49ers at Saints

I find it difficult to put too much stock in either one of these teams. Neither one has beaten any really good opponents. For this game, though, I’ll go with Drew Brees and his high-octane offence, at home. Winner: Saints

Chiefs at Broncos

I get it, really, I do: Peyton Manning and all his receiving weapons scoring TDs at record pace, against a KC team that no one really believes is as good as its 9-0 record, so why not make the Broncos huge favourites? No, wait, I don’t get it. Here’s what I see: Manning is gimpy, with injuries to both ankles; KC’s defence is really, really good, can get solid pressure up the middle and on the edge, and has a deep secondary; KC’s offence is efficient, runs well, eats clock, and takes care of the ball; Denver’s defence is not very good; Jack Del Rio is running the show in Denver in John Fox’s absence, and; November nights in the mile-high city are chilly, which brings us back to Manning. If the Chiefs can get off to a good start and avoid falling behind early, the Broncos are in for a long night. Winner: Chiefs

Monday Night

Patriots at Panthers

Let’s put aside the mystique of Brady, at night, in a nationally-televised game that is now a must-win due to the lurking Jets, and deal with the facts:  this Carolina defence isn’t just good; it may be the best in the NFL right now. That’ll be the difference against a Pats team that can’t count itself as among the league’s best on either side of the ball. Winner: Panthers

I would be remiss if I started this week’s picks without mentioning that I was wrong about my Thursday pick of the Bengals over the Dolphins. Dolphins’ fans the world over rejoiced:

(Above: Wes Welker, plays a mean mandolin)

 

Years ago, some friends of mine and I often wondered why, when there have been so many signature celebrations in the NFL, no one has ever broken out “The Safety Dance” after recording a safety. In a league where players routinely leap into the stands, kiss their biceps, mime home run swings, and even dance like Pee Wee Herman, it’s high time for “The Safety Dance” to make an appearance. If any player does it, I will instantly become his number one fan.



Chargers at Washington

Washington’s offence has shown some signs of life in recent weeks, but even Denver’s defence was able to stiffen against RGIII and Co. in the 4th quarter last week. I doubt Washington can keep pace with the Chargers. Winner: Chargers

Falcons at Panthers

An interesting matchup of division rivals going in opposite directions; the Panthers are on a roll now that they have adopted a more aggressive attitude on offence to match their defence, while the Falcons are in the middle of a nightmare campaign, their high expectations lost in a morass of injuries. Winner: Panthers

Saints at Jets

Even if the Jets’ destruction last week at the hands of the Bengals was an aberration, they will still be hard-pressed to keep pace with this New Orleans offence. Winner: Saints

Chiefs at Bills

Buffalo’s defence is tough, but their offence will have a tough time against KC’s D, especially without Thad Lewis at QB. Winner: Chiefs

Titans at Rams

It seems to me that lately, when the AFC playoff picture has been discussed, the Titans have been overlooked. When I look at the way they’ve played, particularly when Jake Locker is behind centre, as well as at their remaining schedule, they look like, minimum, a 9-win team. I good thumping of the Rams this week might get people to take some notice. Winner: Titans

Vikings at Cowboys

OK, Cowboys. You’ve been down this road many times before. Time to shake off yet another heartbreak and get back to business. You have to make the playoffs so that you can crush your fans again. Winner: Cowboys

Eagles at Raiders

Philly’s offence has evaporated. Denizens of The Black Hole must be loving Terrelle Pryor by now. I know I am. Winner: Raiders

Buccaneers at Seahawks

Bad Bucs. Twelfth Man. How much? Winner: Seahawks

Steelers at Patriots

Two QBs with five rings between them, whose teams have seen better days. Pittsburgh will give them all they can handle, but New England should prevail, based on its superior running game. Winner: Patriots

Ravens at Browns

This looks like a tricky one to call, with the lacklustre Ravens playing on the road against a tough Cleveland defence. I just don’t think the Browns’ offence is good enough to pull this one out. Winner: Ravens

Colts at Texans

When last we saw the Colts, they were celebrating yet another decisive win against one of the league’s top teams (Denver), and heading into their bye with the enormous challenge of moving on without top receiver Reggie Wayne. I think they’ll be fine. They are well-coached, play excellent defence, and have the superb Andrew Luck behind centre. Houston? What the hell happened? Winner: Colts

Monday Night

Bears at Packers

Here are the facts: Aaron Rodgers, plus Eddie Lacy and the Packers’ vastly improved running game, against a Bears team with a defence that gives up a lot of points, and without Jay Cutler to answer back on the scoreboard. This could get ugly. Winner: Packers